We present a new nonparametric mixture-of-experts model for multivariate regression problems, inspired by the probabilistic $k$-nearest neighbors algorithm. Using a conditionally specified model, predictions for out-of-sample inputs are based on similarities to each observed data point, yielding predictive distributions represented by Gaussian mixtures. Posterior inference is performed on the parameters of the mixture components as well as the distance metric using a mean-field variational Bayes algorithm accompanied with a stochastic gradient-based optimization procedure. The proposed method is especially advantageous in settings where inputs are of relatively high dimension in comparison to the data size, where input--output relationships are complex, and where predictive distributions may be skewed or multimodal. Computational studies on two synthetic datasets and one dataset comprising dose statistics of radiation therapy treatment plans show that our mixture-of-experts method outperforms a Gaussian process benchmark model both in terms of validation metrics and visual inspection.

We consider evaluating the causal effects of dynamic treatments, i.e. of multiple treatment sequences in various periods, based on double machine learning to control for observed, time-varying covariates in a data-driven way under a selection-on-observables assumption. To this end, we make use of so-called Neyman-orthogonal score functions, which imply the robustness of treatment effect estimation to moderate (local) misspecifications of the dynamic outcome and treatment models. This robustness property permits approximating outcome and treatment models by double machine learning even under high dimensional covariates and is combined with data splitting to prevent overfitting. In addition to effect estimation for the total population, we consider weighted estimation that permits assessing dynamic treatment effects in specific subgroups, e.g. among those treated in the first treatment period. We demonstrate that the estimators are asymptotically normal and $\sqrt{n}$-consistent under specific regularity conditions and investigate their finite sample properties in a simulation study. Finally, we apply the methods to the Job Corps study in order to assess different sequences of training programs under a large set of covariates.

The World Intellectual Property Organization's (WIPO) first report of a series called WIPO Technology Trends, an extensive study of patent applications and other scientific documents, offers clues to the next big thing in AI. Rather than treating'AI' as a single homogeneous discipline (see our guide to AI terminology), the WIPO report divides it into AI techniques, AI functional applications and AI application fields, offering a finer-grained analysis. AI techniques are advanced forms of statistical and mathematical models used in AI, including machine learning, logic programming, ontology engineering, probabilistic reasoning and fuzzy logic. Machine learning is included in more than one third of all identified inventions and represents 89 per cent of AI filings, the report finds. Between 2013 and 2016, filings related to deep learning rocketed by about 175 per cent.

This paper primarily presents two methods of ranking aggregated fuzzy numbers from intervals using the Interval Agreement Approach (IAA). The two proposed ranking methods within this study contain the combination and application of previously proposed similarity measures, along with attributes novel to that of aggregated fuzzy numbers from interval-valued data. The shortcomings of previous measures, along with the improvements of the proposed methods, are illustrated using both a synthetic and real-world application. The real-world application regards the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) algorithm, modified to include both the previous and newly proposed methods.

Human judgments of word similarity have been a popular method of evaluating the quality of word embedding. But it fails to measure the geometry properties such as asymmetry. For example, it is more natural to say "Ellipses are like Circles" than "Circles are like Ellipses". Such asymmetry has been observed from a psychoanalysis test called word evocation experiment, where one word is used to recall another. Although useful, such experimental data have been significantly understudied for measuring embedding quality. In this paper, we use three well-known evocation datasets to gain insights into asymmetry encoding of embedding. We study both static embedding as well as contextual embedding, such as BERT. Evaluating asymmetry for BERT is generally hard due to the dynamic nature of embedding. Thus, we probe BERT's conditional probabilities (as a language model) using a large number of Wikipedia contexts to derive a theoretically justifiable Bayesian asymmetry score. The result shows that contextual embedding shows randomness than static embedding on similarity judgments while performing well on asymmetry judgment, which aligns with its strong performance on "extrinsic evaluations" such as text classification. The asymmetry judgment and the Bayesian approach provides a new perspective to evaluate contextual embedding on intrinsic evaluation, and its comparison to similarity evaluation concludes our work with a discussion on the current state and the future of representation learning.

Many computational problems in modern society account to probabilistic reasoning, statistics, and combinatorics. A variety of these real-world questions can be solved by representing the question in (Boolean) formulas and associating the number of models of the formula directly with the answer to the question. Since there has been an increasing interest in practical problem solving for model counting over the last years, the Model Counting (MC) Competition was conceived in fall 2019. The competition aims to foster applications, identify new challenging benchmarks, and to promote new solvers and improve established solvers for the model counting problem and versions thereof. We hope that the results can be a good indicator of the current feasibility of model counting and spark many new applications. In this paper, we report on details of the Model Counting Competition 2020, about carrying out the competition, and the results. The competition encompassed three versions of the model counting problem, which we evaluated in separate tracks. The first track featured the model counting problem (MC), which asks for the number of models of a given Boolean formula. On the second track, we challenged developers to submit programs that solve the weighted model counting problem (WMC). The last track was dedicated to projected model counting (PMC). In total, we received a surprising number of 9 solvers in 34 versions from 8 groups.

With the growing number of published functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies, meta-analysis databases and models have become an integral part of brain mapping research. Coordinate-based meta-analysis (CBMA) databases are built by automatically extracting both coordinates of reported peak activations and term associations using natural language processing (NLP) techniques. Solving term-based queries on these databases make it possible to obtain statistical maps of the brain related to specific cognitive processes. However, with tools like Neurosynth, only singleterm queries lead to statistically reliable results. When solving richer queries, too few studies from the database contribute to the statistical estimations. We design a probabilistic domain-specific language (DSL) standing on Datalog and one of its probabilistic extensions, CP-Logic, for expressing and solving rich logic-based queries. We encode a CBMA database into a probabilistic program. Using the joint distribution of its Bayesian network translation, we show that solutions of queries on this program compute the right probability distributions of voxel activations. We explain how recent lifted query processing algorithms make it possible to scale to the size of large neuroimaging data, where state of the art knowledge compilation (KC) techniques fail to solve queries fast enough for practical applications. Finally, we introduce a method for relating studies to terms probabilistically, leading to better solutions for conjunctive queries on smaller databases. We demonstrate results for two-term conjunctive queries, both on simulated meta-analysis databases and on the widely-used Neurosynth database.

In this study, we propose a multicriteria group decision making (MCGDM) algorithm under uncertainty where data is collected as intervals. The proposed MCGDM algorithm aggregates the data, determines the optimal weights for criteria and ranks alternatives with no further input. The intervals give flexibility to experts in assessing alternatives against criteria and provide an opportunity to gain maximum information. We also propose a novel method to aggregate expert judgements using cloud models. We introduce an experimental approach to check the validity of the aggregation method. After that, we use the aggregation method for an MCGDM problem. Here, we find the optimal weights for each criterion by proposing a bilevel optimisation model. Then, we extend the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) for data based on cloud models to prioritise alternatives. As a result, the algorithm can gain information from decision makers with different levels of uncertainty and examine alternatives with no more information from decision-makers. The proposed MCGDM algorithm is implemented on a case study of a cybersecurity problem to illustrate its feasibility and effectiveness. The results verify the robustness and validity of the proposed MCGDM using sensitivity analysis and comparison with other existing algorithms.

The security pitfalls of IoT devices make it easy for the attackers to exploit the IoT devices and make them a part of a botnet. Once hundreds of thousands of IoT devices are compromised and become the part of a botnet, the attackers use this botnet to launch the large and complex distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks which take down the target websites or services and make them unable to respond the legitimate users. So far, many botnet detection techniques have been proposed but their performance is limited to a specific dataset on which they are trained. This is because the features used to train a machine learning model on one botnet dataset, do not perform well on other datasets due to the diversity of attack patterns. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a universal features set to better detect the botnet attacks regardless of the underlying dataset. The proposed features set manifest preeminent results for detecting the botnet attacks when tested the trained machine learning models over three different botnet attack datasets.

DNA samples crime cases analysed in forensic genetics, frequently contain DNA from multiple contributors. These occur as convolutions of the DNA profiles of the individual contributors to the DNA sample. Thus, in cases where one or more of the contributors were unknown, an objective of interest would be the separation, often called deconvolution, of these unknown profiles. In order to obtain deconvolutions of the unknown DNA profiles, we introduced a multiple population evolutionary algorithm (MEA). We allowed the mutation operator of the MEA to utilise that the fitness is based on a probabilistic model and guide it by using the deviations between the observed and the expected value for every element of the encoded individual. This guided mutation operator (GM) was designed such that the larger the deviation the higher probability of mutation. Furthermore, the GM was inhomogeneous in time, decreasing to a specified lower bound as the number of iterations increased. We analysed 102 two-person DNA mixture samples in varying mixture proportions. The samples were quantified using two different DNA prep. kits: (1) Illumina ForenSeq Panel B (30 samples), and (2) Applied Biosystems Precision ID Globalfiler NGS STR panel (72 samples). The DNA mixtures were deconvoluted by the MEA and compared to the true DNA profiles of the sample. We analysed three scenarios where we assumed: (1) the DNA profile of the major contributor was unknown, (2) DNA profile of the minor was unknown, and (3) both DNA profiles were unknown. Furthermore, we conducted a series of sensitivity experiments on the ForenSeq panel by varying the sub-population size, comparing a completely random homogeneous mutation operator to the guided operator with varying mutation decay rates, and allowing for hill-climbing of the parent population.