Probabilistic inference in pairwise Markov Random Fields (MRFs), i.e. computing the partition function or computing a MAP estimate of the variables, is a foundational problem in probabilistic graphical models. Semidefinite programming relaxations have long been a theoretically powerful tool for analyzing properties of probabilistic inference, but have not been practical owing to the high computational cost of typical solvers for solving the resulting SDPs. In this paper, we propose an efficient method for computing the partition function or MAP estimate in a pairwise MRF by instead exploiting a recently proposed coordinate-descent-based fast semidefinite solver. We also extend semidefinite relaxations from the typical binary MRF to the full multi-class setting, and develop a compact semidefinite relaxation that can again be solved efficiently using the solver. We show that the method substantially outperforms (both in terms of solution quality and speed) the existing state of the art in approximate inference, on benchmark problems drawn from previous work. We also show that our approach can scale to large MRF domains such as fully-connected pairwise CRF models used in computer vision.

Learning task-agnostic dynamics models in high-dimensional observation spaces can be challenging for model-based RL agents. We propose a novel way to learn latent world models by learning to predict sequences of future actions conditioned on task completion. These task-conditioned models adaptively focus modeling capacity on task-relevant dynamics, while simultaneously serving as an effective heuristic for planning with sparse rewards. We evaluate our method on challenging visual goal completion tasks and show a substantial increase in performance compared to prior model-free approaches. Deep reinforcement learning has proven to be a powerful and effective framework for solving a diversity of challenging decision-making problems (Silver et al., 2017a; Berner et al., 2019). However these algorithms are typically trained to maximize a single reward function, ignoring information that is not directly relevant to the associated task at hand. This way of learning is in stark contrast to how humans learn (Tenenbaum, 2018). Without being prompted by a specific task, humans can still explore their environment, practice achieving imaginary goals, and in so doing learn about the dynamics of the environment. When subsequently presented with a novel task, humans can utilize this learned knowledge to bootstrap learning -- a property we would like our artificial agents to have. In this work, we investigate one way to bridge this gap by learning world models (Ha & Schmidhuber, 2018) that enable the realization of previously unseen tasks. By modeling the task-agnostic dynamics of an environment, an agent can make predictions about how its own actions may affect the environment state without the need for additional samples from the environment. Prior work has shown that by using powerful function approximators to model environment dynamics, training an agent entirely within its own world models can result in large gains in sample efficiency (Ha & Schmidhuber, 2018).

There has been an increasing interest from the scientific community in using likelihood-free inference (LFI) to determine which parameters of a given simulator model could best describe a set of experimental data. Despite exciting recent results and a wide range of possible applications, an important bottleneck of LFI when applied to time series data is the necessity of defining a set of summary features, often hand-tailored based on domain knowledge. In this work, we present a data-driven strategy for automatically learning summary features from univariate time series and apply it to signals generated from autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) models and the Van der Pol Oscillator. Our results indicate that learning summary features from data can compete and even outperform LFI methods based on hand-crafted values such as autocorrelation coefficients even in the linear case.

Areas covering algorithms that commonly require measurements of similarity within data include classification, ranking, decision-making and pattern-matching. A similarity measure can effectively substitute for a distance measure (e.g. Euclidean distance), making data types with defined similarity measures compatible with methods such as K-Nearest Neighbour [1, 2] and TOPSIS [3, 4, 5]. This study proposes a similarity measure for aggregate fuzzy numbers constructed from interval-valued data using the Interval Agreement Approach (IAA), that is when given two such fuzzy numbers the degree of similarity regarding them is computed. The experimental interval-valued data in recent literature is often an alternative representation of expert opinion.

We propose two generic methods for improving semi-supervised learning (SSL). The first integrates weight perturbation (WP) into existing "consistency regularization" (CR) based methods. We implement WP by leveraging variational Bayesian inference (VBI). The second method proposes a novel consistency loss called "maximum uncertainty regularization" (MUR). While most consistency losses act on perturbations in the vicinity of each data point, MUR actively searches for "virtual" points situated beyond this region that cause the most uncertain class predictions. This allows MUR to impose smoothness on a wider area in the input-output manifold. Our experiments show clear improvements in classification errors of various CR based methods when they are combined with VBI or MUR or both.

We present a new nonparametric mixture-of-experts model for multivariate regression problems, inspired by the probabilistic $k$-nearest neighbors algorithm. Using a conditionally specified model, predictions for out-of-sample inputs are based on similarities to each observed data point, yielding predictive distributions represented by Gaussian mixtures. Posterior inference is performed on the parameters of the mixture components as well as the distance metric using a mean-field variational Bayes algorithm accompanied with a stochastic gradient-based optimization procedure. The proposed method is especially advantageous in settings where inputs are of relatively high dimension in comparison to the data size, where input--output relationships are complex, and where predictive distributions may be skewed or multimodal. Computational studies on two synthetic datasets and one dataset comprising dose statistics of radiation therapy treatment plans show that our mixture-of-experts method outperforms a Gaussian process benchmark model both in terms of validation metrics and visual inspection.

We consider evaluating the causal effects of dynamic treatments, i.e. of multiple treatment sequences in various periods, based on double machine learning to control for observed, time-varying covariates in a data-driven way under a selection-on-observables assumption. To this end, we make use of so-called Neyman-orthogonal score functions, which imply the robustness of treatment effect estimation to moderate (local) misspecifications of the dynamic outcome and treatment models. This robustness property permits approximating outcome and treatment models by double machine learning even under high dimensional covariates and is combined with data splitting to prevent overfitting. In addition to effect estimation for the total population, we consider weighted estimation that permits assessing dynamic treatment effects in specific subgroups, e.g. among those treated in the first treatment period. We demonstrate that the estimators are asymptotically normal and $\sqrt{n}$-consistent under specific regularity conditions and investigate their finite sample properties in a simulation study. Finally, we apply the methods to the Job Corps study in order to assess different sequences of training programs under a large set of covariates.

The World Intellectual Property Organization's (WIPO) first report of a series called WIPO Technology Trends, an extensive study of patent applications and other scientific documents, offers clues to the next big thing in AI. Rather than treating'AI' as a single homogeneous discipline (see our guide to AI terminology), the WIPO report divides it into AI techniques, AI functional applications and AI application fields, offering a finer-grained analysis. AI techniques are advanced forms of statistical and mathematical models used in AI, including machine learning, logic programming, ontology engineering, probabilistic reasoning and fuzzy logic. Machine learning is included in more than one third of all identified inventions and represents 89 per cent of AI filings, the report finds. Between 2013 and 2016, filings related to deep learning rocketed by about 175 per cent.

This paper primarily presents two methods of ranking aggregated fuzzy numbers from intervals using the Interval Agreement Approach (IAA). The two proposed ranking methods within this study contain the combination and application of previously proposed similarity measures, along with attributes novel to that of aggregated fuzzy numbers from interval-valued data. The shortcomings of previous measures, along with the improvements of the proposed methods, are illustrated using both a synthetic and real-world application. The real-world application regards the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) algorithm, modified to include both the previous and newly proposed methods.

Human judgments of word similarity have been a popular method of evaluating the quality of word embedding. But it fails to measure the geometry properties such as asymmetry. For example, it is more natural to say "Ellipses are like Circles" than "Circles are like Ellipses". Such asymmetry has been observed from a psychoanalysis test called word evocation experiment, where one word is used to recall another. Although useful, such experimental data have been significantly understudied for measuring embedding quality. In this paper, we use three well-known evocation datasets to gain insights into asymmetry encoding of embedding. We study both static embedding as well as contextual embedding, such as BERT. Evaluating asymmetry for BERT is generally hard due to the dynamic nature of embedding. Thus, we probe BERT's conditional probabilities (as a language model) using a large number of Wikipedia contexts to derive a theoretically justifiable Bayesian asymmetry score. The result shows that contextual embedding shows randomness than static embedding on similarity judgments while performing well on asymmetry judgment, which aligns with its strong performance on "extrinsic evaluations" such as text classification. The asymmetry judgment and the Bayesian approach provides a new perspective to evaluate contextual embedding on intrinsic evaluation, and its comparison to similarity evaluation concludes our work with a discussion on the current state and the future of representation learning.