We consider the optimization problem of minimizing a functional defined over a family of probability distributions, where the objective functional is assumed to possess a variational form. Such a distributional optimization problem arises widely in machine learning and statistics, with Monte-Carlo sampling, variational inference, policy optimization, and generative adversarial network as examples. For this problem, we propose a novel particle-based algorithm, dubbed as variational transport, which approximately performs Wasserstein gradient descent over the manifold of probability distributions via iteratively pushing a set of particles. Specifically, we prove that moving along the geodesic in the direction of functional gradient with respect to the second-order Wasserstein distance is equivalent to applying a pushforward mapping to a probability distribution, which can be approximated accurately by pushing a set of particles. Specifically, in each iteration of variational transport, we first solve the variational problem associated with the objective functional using the particles, whose solution yields the Wasserstein gradient direction. Then we update the current distribution by pushing each particle along the direction specified by such a solution. By characterizing both the statistical error incurred in estimating the Wasserstein gradient and the progress of the optimization algorithm, we prove that when the objective function satisfies a functional version of the Polyak-\L{}ojasiewicz (PL) (Polyak, 1963) and smoothness conditions, variational transport converges linearly to the global minimum of the objective functional up to a certain statistical error, which decays to zero sublinearly as the number of particles goes to infinity.

Evaluating expectations on a pairwise Boltzmann machine (PBM) (or Ising model) is important for various applications, including the statistical machine learning. However, in general the evaluation is computationally difficult because it involves intractable multiple summations or integrations; therefore, it requires an approximation. Monte Carlo integration (MCI) is a well-known approximation method; a more effective MCI-like approximation method was proposed recently, called spatial Monte Carlo integration (SMCI). However, the estimations obtained from SMCI (and MCI) tend to perform poorly in PBMs with low temperature owing to degradation of the sampling quality. Annealed importance sampling (AIS) is a type of importance sampling based on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, and it can suppress performance degradation in low temperature regions by the force of importance weights. In this study, a new method is proposed to evaluate the expectations on PBMs combining AIS and SMCI. The proposed method performs efficiently in both high- and low-temperature regions, which is theoretically and numerically demonstrated.

This paper introduces a new prior on functions spaces which scales more favourably in the dimension of the function's domain compared to the usual Karhunen-Lo\'eve function space prior, a property we refer to as dimension-robustness. The proposed prior is a Bayesian neural network prior, where each weight and bias has an independent Gaussian prior, but with the key difference that the variances decrease in the width of the network, such that the variances form a summable sequence and the infinite width limit neural network is well defined. We show that our resulting posterior of the unknown function is amenable to sampling using Hilbert space Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. These sampling methods are favoured because they are stable under mesh-refinement, in the sense that the acceptance probability does not shrink to 0 as more parameters are introduced to better approximate the well-defined infinite limit. We show that our priors are competitive and have distinct advantages over other function space priors. Upon defining a suitable likelihood for continuous value functions in a Bayesian approach to reinforcement learning, our new prior is used in numerical examples to illustrate its performance and dimension-robustness.

Crowdsourcing has emerged as a powerful paradigm for efficiently labeling large datasets and performing various learning tasks, by leveraging crowds of human annotators. When additional information is available about the data, semi-supervised crowdsourcing approaches that enhance the aggregation of labels from human annotators are well motivated. This work deals with semi-supervised crowdsourced classification, under two regimes of semi-supervision: a) label constraints, that provide ground-truth labels for a subset of data; and b) potentially easier to obtain instance-level constraints, that indicate relationships between pairs of data. Bayesian algorithms based on variational inference are developed for each regime, and their quantifiably improved performance, compared to unsupervised crowdsourcing, is analytically and empirically validated on several crowdsourcing datasets.

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) is a complex systems modeling technique which, due to its unique advantages, has lately risen in popularity. They are based on graphs that represent the causal relationships among the parameters of the system to be modeled, and they stand out for their interpretability and flexibility. With the late popularity of FCMs, a plethora of research efforts have taken place to develop and optimize the model. One of the most important elements of FCMs is the learning algorithm they use, and their effectiveness is largely determined by it. The learning algorithms learn the node weights of an FCM, with the goal of converging towards the desired behavior. The present study reviews the genetic algorithms used for training FCMs, as well as gives a general overview of the FCM learning algorithms, putting evolutionary computing into the wider context.

We introduce Probabilistic Dependency Graphs (PDGs), a new class of directed graphical models. PDGs can capture inconsistent beliefs in a natural way and are more modular than Bayesian Networks (BNs), in that they make it easier to incorporate new information and restructure the representation. We show by example how PDGs are an especially natural modeling tool. We provide three semantics for PDGs, each of which can be derived from a scoring function (on joint distributions over the variables in the network) that can be viewed as representing a distribution's incompatibility with the PDG. For the PDG corresponding to a BN, this function is uniquely minimized by the distribution the BN represents, showing that PDG semantics extend BN semantics. We show further that factor graphs and their exponential families can also be faithfully represented as PDGs, while there are significant barriers to modeling a PDG with a factor graph.

In human-robot cooperation, the robot cooperates with the human to accomplish the task together. Existing approaches assume the human has a specific goal during the cooperation, and the robot infers and acts toward it. However, in real-world environments, a human usually only has a general goal (e.g., general direction or area in motion planning) at the beginning of the cooperation which needs to be clarified to a specific goal (e.g., an exact position) during cooperation. The specification process is interactive and dynamic, which depends on the environment and the behavior of the partners. The robot that does not consider the goal specification process may cause frustration to the human partner, elongate the time to come to an agreement, and compromise or fail team performance. We present Evolutionary Value Learning (EVL) approach which uses a State-based Multivariate Bayesian Inference method to model the dynamics of goal specification process in HRC, and an Evolutionary Value Updating method to actively enhance the process of goal specification and cooperation formation. This enables the robot to simultaneously help the human to specify the goal and learn a cooperative policy in a Reinforcement Learning manner. In experiments with real human subjects, the robot equipped with EVL outperforms existing methods with faster goal specification processes and better team performance.

The use of genetic variants as instrumental variables - an approach known as Mendelian randomization - is a popular epidemiological method for estimating the causal effect of an exposure (phenotype, biomarker, risk factor) on a disease or health-related outcome from observational data. Instrumental variables must satisfy strong, often untestable assumptions, which means that finding good genetic instruments among a large list of potential candidates is challenging. This difficulty is compounded by the fact that many genetic variants influence more than one phenotype through different causal pathways, a phenomenon called horizontal pleiotropy. This leads to errors not only in estimating the magnitude of the causal effect but also in inferring the direction of the putative causal link. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach called BayesMR that is a generalization of the Mendelian randomization technique in which we allow for pleiotropic effects and, crucially, for the possibility of reverse causation. The output of the method is a posterior distribution over the target causal effect, which provides an immediate and easily interpretable measure of the uncertainty in the estimation. More importantly, we use Bayesian model averaging to determine how much more likely the inferred direction is relative to the reverse direction.

The recent availability of huge, many-dimensional data sets, like those arising from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), provides many opportunities for strengthening causal inference. One popular approach is to utilize these many-dimensional measurements as instrumental variables (instruments) for improving the causal effect estimate between other pairs of variables. Unfortunately, searching for proper instruments in a many-dimensional set of candidates is a daunting task due to the intractable model space and the fact that we cannot directly test which of these candidates are valid, so most existing search methods either rely on overly stringent modeling assumptions or fail to capture the inherent model uncertainty in the selection process. We show that, as long as at least some of the candidates are (close to) valid, without knowing a priori which ones, they collectively still pose enough restrictions on the target interaction to obtain a reliable causal effect estimate. We propose a general and efficient causal inference algorithm that accounts for model uncertainty by performing Bayesian model averaging over the most promising many-dimensional instrumental variable models, while at the same time employing weaker assumptions regarding the data generating process. We showcase the efficiency, robustness and predictive performance of our algorithm through experimental results on both simulated and real-world data.

Probabilistic solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs) provide efficient quantification of numerical uncertainty associated with simulation of dynamical systems. Their convergence rates have been established by a growing body of theoretical analysis. However, these algorithms suffer from numerical instability when run at high order or with small step-sizes -- that is, exactly in the regime in which they achieve the highest accuracy. The present work proposes and examines a solution to this problem. It involves three components: accurate initialisation, a coordinate change preconditioner that makes numerical stability concerns step-size-independent, and square-root implementation. Using all three techniques enables numerical computation of probabilistic solutions of ODEs with algorithms of order up to 11, as demonstrated on a set of challenging test problems. The resulting rapid convergence is shown to be competitive to high-order, state-of-the-art, classical methods. As a consequence, a barrier between analysing probabilistic ODE solvers and applying them to interesting machine learning problems is effectively removed.