Noninformative uniform priors are staples of Bayesian inference, especially in Bayesian machine learning. This study challenges the assumption that they are optimal and their use in Bayesian inference yields optimal outcomes. Instead of using arbitrary noninformative uniform priors, we propose a machine learning based alternative method, learning optimal priors from data by maximizing a target function of interest. Applying na\"ive Bayes text classification methodology and a search algorithm developed for this study, our system learned priors from data using the positive predictive value metric as the target function. The task was to find Wikipedia articles that had not (but should have) been categorized under certain Wikipedia categories. We conducted five sets of experiments using separate Wikipedia categories. While the baseline models used the popular Bayes-Laplace priors, the study models learned the optimal priors for each set of experiments separately before using them. The results showed that the study models consistently outperformed the baseline models with a wide margin of statistical significance (p < 0.001). The measured performance improvement of the study model over the baseline was as high as 443% with the mean value of 193% over five Wikipedia categories.

The ability to generate high-fidelity synthetic data is crucial when available (real) data is limited or where privacy and data protection standards allow only for limited use of the given data, e.g., in medical and financial data-sets. Current state-of-the-art methods for synthetic data generation are based on generative models, such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Even though GANs have achieved remarkable results in synthetic data generation, they are often challenging to interpret.Furthermore, GAN-based methods can suffer when used with mixed real and categorical variables.Moreover, loss function (discriminator loss) design itself is problem specific, i.e., the generative model may not be useful for tasks it was not explicitly trained for. In this paper, we propose to use a probabilistic model as a synthetic data generator. Learning the probabilistic model for the data is equivalent to estimating the density of the data. Based on the copula theory, we divide the density estimation task into two parts, i.e., estimating univariate marginals and estimating the multivariate copula density over the univariate marginals. We use normalising flows to learn both the copula density and univariate marginals. We benchmark our method on both simulated and real data-sets in terms of density estimation as well as the ability to generate high-fidelity synthetic data

Rating systems play an important role in competitive sports and games. They provide a measure of player skill, which incentivizes competitive performances and enables balanced match-ups. In this paper, we present a novel Bayesian rating system for contests with many participants. It is widely applicable to competition formats with discrete ranked matches, such as online programming competitions, obstacle courses races, and some video games. The simplicity of our system allows us to prove theoretical bounds on robustness and runtime. In addition, we show that the system aligns incentives: that is, a player who seeks to maximize their rating will never want to underperform. Experimentally, the rating system rivals or surpasses existing systems in prediction accuracy, and computes faster than existing systems by up to an order of magnitude.

There is a growing interest in the learning-to-learn paradigm, also known as meta-learning, where models infer on new tasks using a few training examples. Recently, meta-learning based methods have been widely used in few-shot classification, regression, reinforcement learning, and domain adaptation. The model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) algorithm is a well-known algorithm that obtains model parameter initialization at meta-training phase. In the meta-test phase, this initialization is rapidly adapted to new tasks by using gradient descent. However, meta-learning models are prone to overfitting since there are insufficient training tasks resulting in over-parameterized models with poor generalization performance for unseen tasks. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian neural network based MAML algorithm, which we refer to as the B-SMALL algorithm. The proposed framework incorporates a sparse variational loss term alongside the loss function of MAML, which uses a sparsifying approximated KL divergence as a regularizer. We demonstrate the performance of B-MAML using classification and regression tasks, and highlight that training a sparsifying BNN using MAML indeed improves the parameter footprint of the model while performing at par or even outperforming the MAML approach. We also illustrate applicability of our approach in distributed sensor networks, where sparsity and meta-learning can be beneficial.

The rise in popularity and ubiquity of Twitter has made sentiment analysis of tweets an important and well-covered area of research. However, the 140 character limit imposed on tweets makes it hard to use standard linguistic methods for sentiment classification. On the other hand, what tweets lack in structure they make up with sheer volume and rich metadata. This metadata includes geolocation, temporal and author information. We hypothesize that sentiment is dependent on all these contextual factors. Different locations, times and authors have different emotional valences. In this paper, we explored this hypothesis by utilizing distant supervision to collect millions of labelled tweets from different locations, times and authors. We used this data to analyse the variation of tweet sentiments across different authors, times and locations. Once we explored and understood the relationship between these variables and sentiment, we used a Bayesian approach to combine these variables with more standard linguistic features such as n-grams to create a Twitter sentiment classifier. This combined classifier outperforms the purely linguistic classifier, showing that integrating the rich contextual information available on Twitter into sentiment classification is a promising direction of research.

Bayesian learning is a powerful learning framework which combines the external information of the data (background information) with the internal information (training data) in a logically consistent way in inference and prediction. By Bayes rule, the external information (prior distribution) and the internal information (training data likelihood) are combined coherently, and the posterior distribution and the posterior predictive (marginal) distribution obtained by Bayes rule summarize the total information needed in the inference and prediction, respectively. In this paper, we study the Bayesian framework of the Tensor Network from two perspective. First, we introduce the prior distribution to the weights in the Tensor Network and predict the labels of the new observations by the posterior predictive (marginal) distribution. Since the intractability of the parameter integral in the normalization constant computation, we approximate the posterior predictive distribution by Laplace approximation and obtain the out-product approximation of the hessian matrix of the posterior distribution of the Tensor Network model. Second, to estimate the parameters of the stationary mode, we propose a stable initialization trick to accelerate the inference process by which the Tensor Network can converge to the stationary path more efficiently and stably with gradient descent method. We verify our work on the MNIST, Phishing Website and Breast Cancer data set. We study the Bayesian properties of the Bayesian Tensor Network by visualizing the parameters of the model and the decision boundaries in the two dimensional synthetic data set. For a application purpose, our work can reduce the overfitting and improve the performance of normal Tensor Network model.

Conditional inference provides a rigorous approach to counter bias when data from automated model selections is reused for inference. We develop in this paper a statistically consistent Bayesian framework to assess uncertainties within linear models that are informed by grouped sparsities in covariates. Finding wide applications when genes, proteins, genetic variants, neuroimaging measurements are grouped respectively by their biological pathways, molecular functions, regulatory regions, cognitive roles, these models are selected through a useful class of group-sparse learning algorithms. An adjustment factor to account precisely for the selection of promising groups, deployed with a generalized version of Laplace-type approximations is the centerpiece of our new methods. Accommodating well known group-sparse models such as those selected by the Group LASSO, the overlapping Group LASSO, the sparse Group LASSO etc., we illustrate the efficacy of our methodology in extensive experiments and on data from a human neuroimaging application.

We propose a goodness-of-fit test for degree-corrected stochastic block models (DCSBM). The test is based on an adjusted chi-square statistic for measuring equality of means among groups of $n$ multinomial distributions with $d_1,\dots,d_n$ observations. In the context of network models, the number of multinomials, $n$, grows much faster than the number of observations, $d_i$, hence the setting deviates from classical asymptotics. We show that a simple adjustment allows the statistic to converge in distribution, under null, as long as the harmonic mean of $\{d_i\}$ grows to infinity. This result applies to large sparse networks where the role of $d_i$ is played by the degree of node $i$. Our distributional results are nonasymptotic, with explicit constants, providing finite-sample bounds on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance to the target distribution. When applied sequentially, the test can also be used to determine the number of communities. The test operates on a (row) compressed version of the adjacency matrix, conditional on the degrees, and as a result is highly scalable to large sparse networks. We incorporate a novel idea of compressing the columns based on a $(K+1)$-community assignment when testing for $K$ communities. This approach increases the power in sequential applications without sacrificing computational efficiency, and we prove its consistency in recovering the number of communities. Since the test statistic does not rely on a specific alternative, its utility goes beyond sequential testing and can be used to simultaneously test against a wide range of alternatives outside the DCSBM family. We show the effectiveness of the approach by extensive numerical experiments with simulated and real data. In particular, applying the test to the Facebook-100 dataset, we find that a DCSBM with a small number of communities is far from a good fit in almost all cases.

Textile manufacturing is a typical traditional industry involving high complexity in interconnected processes with limited capacity on the application of modern technologies. Decision-making in this domain generally takes multiple criteria into consideration, which usually arouses more complexity. To address this issue, the present paper proposes a decision support system that combines the intelligent data-based random forest (RF) models and a human knowledge based analytical hierarchical process (AHP) multi-criteria structure in accordance to the objective and the subjective factors of the textile manufacturing process. More importantly, the textile manufacturing process is described as the Markov decision process (MDP) paradigm, and a deep reinforcement learning scheme, the Deep Q-networks (DQN), is employed to optimize it. The effectiveness of this system has been validated in a case study of optimizing a textile ozonation process, showing that it can better master the challenging decision-making tasks in textile manufacturing processes.

Due to the intractable partition function, training energy-based models (EBMs) by maximum likelihood requires Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to approximate the gradient of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between data and model distributions. However, it is non-trivial to sample from an EBM because of the difficulty of mixing between modes. In this paper, we propose to learn a variational auto-encoder (VAE) to initialize the finite-step MCMC, such as Langevin dynamics that is derived from the energy function, for efficient amortized sampling of the EBM. With these amortized MCMC samples, the EBM can be trained by maximum likelihood, which follows an "analysis by synthesis" scheme; while the variational auto-encoder learns from these MCMC samples via variational Bayes. We call this joint training algorithm the variational MCMC teaching, in which the VAE chases the EBM toward data distribution. We interpret the learning algorithm as a dynamic alternating projection in the context of information geometry. Our proposed models can generate samples comparable to GANs and EBMs. Additionally, we demonstrate that our models can learn effective probabilistic distribution toward supervised conditional learning experiments.