Simulations, along with other similar applications like virtual worlds and video games, require computational models of intelligence that generate realistic and credible behavior for the participating synthetic characters. Cognitive architectures, which are models of the fixed structure underlying intelligent behavior in both natural and artificial systems, provide a conceptually valid common basis, as evidenced by the current efforts towards a standard model of the mind, to generate human-like intelligent behavior for these synthetic characters. Sigma is a cognitive architecture and system that strives to combine what has been learned from four decades of independent work on symbolic cognitive architectures, probabilistic graphical models, and more recently neural models, under its graphical architecture hypothesis. Sigma leverages an extended form of factor graphs towards a uniform grand unification of not only traditional cognitive capabilities but also key non-cognitive aspects, creating unique opportunities for the construction of new kinds of cognitive models that possess a Theory-of-Mind and that are perceptual, autonomous, interactive, affective, and adaptive. In this paper, we will introduce Sigma along with its diverse capabilities and then use three distinct proof-of-concept Sigma models to highlight combinations of these capabilities: (1) Distributional reinforcement learning models in; (2) A pair of adaptive and interactive agent models that demonstrate rule-based, probabilistic, and social reasoning; and (3) A knowledge-free exploration model in which an agent leverages only architectural appraisal variables, namely attention and curiosity, to locate an item while building up a map in a Unity environment.

As interest in autonomous driving increases, efforts are being made to meet requirements for the high-level automation of vehicles. In this context, the functionality inside the vehicle cabin plays a key role in ensuring a safe and pleasant journey for driver and passenger alike. At the same time, recent advances in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) have enabled a whole range of new applications and assistance systems to solve automated problems in the vehicle cabin. This paper presents a thorough survey on existing work that utilizes AI methods for use-cases inside the driving cabin, focusing, in particular, on application scenarios related to (1) driving safety and (2) driving comfort. Results from the surveyed works show that AI technology has a promising future in tackling in-cabin tasks within the autonomous driving aspect.

Graph-based causal discovery methods aim to capture conditional independencies consistent with the observed data and differentiate causal relationships from indirect or induced ones. Successful construction of graphical models of data depends on the assumption of causal sufficiency: that is, that all confounding variables are measured. When this assumption is not met, learned graphical structures may become arbitrarily incorrect and effects implied by such models may be wrongly attributed, carry the wrong magnitude, or mis-represent direction of correlation. Wide application of graphical models to increasingly less curated "big data" draws renewed attention to the unobserved confounder problem. We present a novel method that aims to control for the latent space when estimating a DAG by iteratively deriving proxies for the latent space from the residuals of the inferred model. Under mild assumptions, our method improves structural inference of Gaussian graphical models and enhances identifiability of the causal effect. In addition, when the model is being used to predict outcomes, it un-confounds the coefficients on the parents of the outcomes and leads to improved predictive performance when out-of-sample regime is very different from the training data. We show that any improvement of prediction of an outcome is intrinsically capped and cannot rise beyond a certain limit as compared to the confounded model. We extend our methodology beyond GGMs to ordinal variables and nonlinear cases. Our R package provides both PCA and autoencoder implementations of the methodology, suitable for GGMs with some guarantees and for better performance in general cases but without such guarantees.

We study reinforcement learning (RL) with linear function approximation under the adaptivity constraint. We consider two popular limited adaptivity models: batch learning model and rare policy switch model, and propose two efficient online RL algorithms for linear Markov decision processes. In specific, for the batch learning model, our proposed LSVI-UCB-Batch algorithm achieves an $\tilde O(\sqrt{d^3H^3T} + dHT/B)$ regret, where $d$ is the dimension of the feature mapping, $H$ is the episode length, $T$ is the number of interactions and $B$ is the number of batches. Our result suggests that it suffices to use only $\sqrt{T/dH}$ batches to obtain $\tilde O(\sqrt{d^3H^3T})$ regret. For the rare policy switch model, our proposed LSVI-UCB-RareSwitch algorithm enjoys an $\tilde O(\sqrt{d^3H^3T[1+T/(dH)]^{dH/B}})$ regret, which implies that $dH\log T$ policy switches suffice to obtain the $\tilde O(\sqrt{d^3H^3T})$ regret. Our algorithms achieve the same regret as the LSVI-UCB algorithm (Jin et al., 2019), yet with a substantially smaller amount of adaptivity.

We present a convex cone program to infer the latent probability matrix of a random dot product graph (RDPG). The optimization problem maximizes the Bernoulli maximum likelihood function with an added nuclear norm regularization term. The dual problem has a particularly nice form, related to the well-known semidefinite program relaxation of the maxcut problem. Using the primal-dual optimality conditions, we bound the entries and rank of the primal and dual solutions. Furthermore, we bound the optimal objective value and prove asymptotic consistency of the probability estimates of a slightly modified model under mild technical assumptions. Our experiments on synthetic RDPGs not only recover natural clusters, but also reveal the underlying low-dimensional geometry of the original data. We also demonstrate that the method recovers latent structure in the Karate Club Graph and synthetic U.S. Senate vote graphs and is scalable to graphs with up to a few hundred nodes.

Noninformative uniform priors are staples of Bayesian inference, especially in Bayesian machine learning. This study challenges the assumption that they are optimal and their use in Bayesian inference yields optimal outcomes. Instead of using arbitrary noninformative uniform priors, we propose a machine learning based alternative method, learning optimal priors from data by maximizing a target function of interest. Applying na\"ive Bayes text classification methodology and a search algorithm developed for this study, our system learned priors from data using the positive predictive value metric as the target function. The task was to find Wikipedia articles that had not (but should have) been categorized under certain Wikipedia categories. We conducted five sets of experiments using separate Wikipedia categories. While the baseline models used the popular Bayes-Laplace priors, the study models learned the optimal priors for each set of experiments separately before using them. The results showed that the study models consistently outperformed the baseline models with a wide margin of statistical significance (p < 0.001). The measured performance improvement of the study model over the baseline was as high as 443% with the mean value of 193% over five Wikipedia categories.

The ability to generate high-fidelity synthetic data is crucial when available (real) data is limited or where privacy and data protection standards allow only for limited use of the given data, e.g., in medical and financial data-sets. Current state-of-the-art methods for synthetic data generation are based on generative models, such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Even though GANs have achieved remarkable results in synthetic data generation, they are often challenging to interpret.Furthermore, GAN-based methods can suffer when used with mixed real and categorical variables.Moreover, loss function (discriminator loss) design itself is problem specific, i.e., the generative model may not be useful for tasks it was not explicitly trained for. In this paper, we propose to use a probabilistic model as a synthetic data generator. Learning the probabilistic model for the data is equivalent to estimating the density of the data. Based on the copula theory, we divide the density estimation task into two parts, i.e., estimating univariate marginals and estimating the multivariate copula density over the univariate marginals. We use normalising flows to learn both the copula density and univariate marginals. We benchmark our method on both simulated and real data-sets in terms of density estimation as well as the ability to generate high-fidelity synthetic data

Rating systems play an important role in competitive sports and games. They provide a measure of player skill, which incentivizes competitive performances and enables balanced match-ups. In this paper, we present a novel Bayesian rating system for contests with many participants. It is widely applicable to competition formats with discrete ranked matches, such as online programming competitions, obstacle courses races, and some video games. The simplicity of our system allows us to prove theoretical bounds on robustness and runtime. In addition, we show that the system aligns incentives: that is, a player who seeks to maximize their rating will never want to underperform. Experimentally, the rating system rivals or surpasses existing systems in prediction accuracy, and computes faster than existing systems by up to an order of magnitude.

There is a growing interest in the learning-to-learn paradigm, also known as meta-learning, where models infer on new tasks using a few training examples. Recently, meta-learning based methods have been widely used in few-shot classification, regression, reinforcement learning, and domain adaptation. The model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) algorithm is a well-known algorithm that obtains model parameter initialization at meta-training phase. In the meta-test phase, this initialization is rapidly adapted to new tasks by using gradient descent. However, meta-learning models are prone to overfitting since there are insufficient training tasks resulting in over-parameterized models with poor generalization performance for unseen tasks. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian neural network based MAML algorithm, which we refer to as the B-SMALL algorithm. The proposed framework incorporates a sparse variational loss term alongside the loss function of MAML, which uses a sparsifying approximated KL divergence as a regularizer. We demonstrate the performance of B-MAML using classification and regression tasks, and highlight that training a sparsifying BNN using MAML indeed improves the parameter footprint of the model while performing at par or even outperforming the MAML approach. We also illustrate applicability of our approach in distributed sensor networks, where sparsity and meta-learning can be beneficial.

The rise in popularity and ubiquity of Twitter has made sentiment analysis of tweets an important and well-covered area of research. However, the 140 character limit imposed on tweets makes it hard to use standard linguistic methods for sentiment classification. On the other hand, what tweets lack in structure they make up with sheer volume and rich metadata. This metadata includes geolocation, temporal and author information. We hypothesize that sentiment is dependent on all these contextual factors. Different locations, times and authors have different emotional valences. In this paper, we explored this hypothesis by utilizing distant supervision to collect millions of labelled tweets from different locations, times and authors. We used this data to analyse the variation of tweet sentiments across different authors, times and locations. Once we explored and understood the relationship between these variables and sentiment, we used a Bayesian approach to combine these variables with more standard linguistic features such as n-grams to create a Twitter sentiment classifier. This combined classifier outperforms the purely linguistic classifier, showing that integrating the rich contextual information available on Twitter into sentiment classification is a promising direction of research.