This work considers variational Bayesian inference as an inexpensive and scalable alternative to a fully Bayesian approach in the context of sparsity-promoting priors. In particular, the priors considered arise from scale mixtures of Normal distributions with a generalized inverse Gaussian mixing distribution. This includes the variational Bayesian LASSO as an inexpensive and scalable alternative to the Bayesian LASSO introduced in [56]. It also includes priors which more strongly promote sparsity. For linear models the method requires only the iterative solution of deterministic least squares problems. Furthermore, for $n\rightarrow \infty$ data points and p unknown covariates the method can be implemented exactly online with a cost of O(p$^3$) in computation and O(p$^2$) in memory. For large p an approximation is able to achieve promising results for a cost of O(p) in both computation and memory. Strategies for hyper-parameter tuning are also considered. The method is implemented for real and simulated data. It is shown that the performance in terms of variable selection and uncertainty quantification of the variational Bayesian LASSO can be comparable to the Bayesian LASSO for problems which are tractable with that method, and for a fraction of the cost. The present method comfortably handles n = p = 131,073 on a laptop in minutes, and n = 10$^5$, p = 10$^6$ overnight.

Deep kernel learning and related techniques promise to combine the representational power of neural networks with the reliable uncertainty estimates of Gaussian processes. One crucial aspect of these models is an expectation that, because they are treated as Gaussian process models optimized using the marginal likelihood, they are protected from overfitting. However, we identify pathological behavior, including overfitting, on a simple toy example. We explore this pathology, explaining its origins and considering how it applies to real datasets. Through careful experimentation on UCI datasets, CIFAR-10, and the UTKFace dataset, we find that the overfitting from overparameterized deep kernel learning, in which the model is "somewhat Bayesian", can in certain scenarios be worse than that from not being Bayesian at all. However, we find that a fully Bayesian treatment of deep kernel learning can rectify this overfitting and obtain the desired performance improvements over standard neural networks and Gaussian processes.

One challenge of motion generation using robot learning from demonstration techniques is that human demonstrations follow a distribution with multiple modes for one task query. Previous approaches fail to capture all modes or tend to average modes of the demonstrations and thus generate invalid trajectories. The other difficulty is the small number of demonstrations that cannot cover the entire working space. To overcome this problem, a motion generation model with extrapolation ability is needed. Previous works restrict task queries as local frames and learn representations in local frames. We propose a model to solve both problems. For multiple modes, we suggest to learn local latent representations of motion trajectories with a density estimation method based on real-valued non-volume preserving (RealNVP) transformations that provides a set of powerful, stably invertible, and learnable transformations. To improve the extrapolation ability, we propose to shift the attention of the robot from one local frame to another during the task execution. In experiments, we consider the docking problem used also in previous works where a trajectory has to be generated to connect two dockers without collision. We increase complexity of the task and show that the proposed method outperforms other approaches. In addition, we evaluate the approach in real robot experiments.

Quantum machine learning is an emerging field at the intersection of machine learning and quantum computing. Classical cross entropy plays a central role in machine learning. We define its quantum generalization, the quantum cross entropy, and investigate its relations with the quantum fidelity and the maximum likelihood principle. We also discuss its physical implications on quantum measurements.

Maximum likelihood estimation is widely used in training Energy-based models (EBMs). Training requires samples from an unnormalized distribution, which is usually intractable, and in practice, these are obtained by MCMC algorithms such as Langevin dynamics. However, since MCMC in high-dimensional space converges extremely slowly, the current understanding of maximum likelihood training, which assumes approximate samples from the model can be drawn, is problematic. In this paper, we try to understand this training procedure by replacing Langevin dynamics with deterministic solutions of the associated gradient descent ODE. Doing so allows us to study the density induced by the dynamics (if the dynamics are invertible), and connect with GANs by treating the dynamics as generator models, the initial values as latent variables and the loss as optimizing a critic defined by the very same energy that determines the generator through its gradient. Hence the term - self-adversarial loss. We show that reintroducing the noise in the dynamics does not lead to a qualitative change in the behavior, and merely reduces the quality of the generator. We thus show that EBM training is effectively a self-adversarial procedure rather than maximum likelihood estimation.

We show that a single softmax neural net with minimal changes can beat the uncertainty predictions of Deep Ensembles and other more complex single-forward-pass uncertainty approaches. Softmax neural nets cannot capture epistemic uncertainty reliably because for OoD points they extrapolate arbitrarily and suffer from feature collapse. This results in arbitrary softmax entropies for OoD points which can have high entropy, low, or anything in between. We study why, and show that with the right inductive biases, softmax neural nets trained with maximum likelihood reliably capture epistemic uncertainty through the feature-space density. This density is obtained using Gaussian Discriminant Analysis, but it cannot disentangle uncertainties. We show that it is necessary to combine this density with the softmax entropy to disentangle aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty -- crucial e.g. for active learning. We examine the quality of epistemic uncertainty on active learning and OoD detection, where we obtain SOTA ~0.98 AUROC on CIFAR-10 vs SVHN.

Recent approaches to goal recognition have leveraged planning landmarks to achieve high-accuracy with low runtime cost. These approaches, however, lack a probabilistic interpretation. Furthermore, while most probabilistic models to goal recognition assume that the recognizer has access to a prior probability representing, for example, an agent's preferences, virtually no goal recognition approach actually uses the prior in practice, simply assuming a uniform prior. In this paper, we provide a model to both extend landmark-based goal recognition with a probabilistic interpretation and allow the estimation of such prior probability and its usage to compute posterior probabilities after repeated interactions of observed agents. We empirically show that our model can not only recognize goals effectively but also successfully infer the correct prior probability distribution representing an agent's preferences.

As quantum computing and networking nodes scale-up, important open questions arise on the causal influence of various sub-systems on the total system performance. These questions are related to the tomographic reconstruction of the macroscopic wavefunction and optimizing connectivity of large engineered qubit systems, the reliable broadcasting of information across quantum networks as well as speed-up of classical causal inference algorithms on quantum computers. A direct generalization of the existing causal inference techniques to the quantum domain is not possible due to superposition and entanglement. We put forth a new theoretical framework for merging quantum information science and causal inference by exploiting entropic principles. First, we build the fundamental connection between the celebrated quantum marginal problem and entropic causal inference. Second, inspired by the definition of geometric quantum discord, we fill the gap between classical conditional probabilities and quantum conditional density matrices. These fundamental theoretical advances are exploited to develop a scalable algorithmic approach for quantum entropic causal inference. We apply our proposed framework to an experimentally relevant scenario of identifying message senders on quantum noisy links. This successful inference on a synthetic quantum dataset can lay the foundations of identifying originators of malicious activity on future multi-node quantum networks. We unify classical and quantum causal inference in a principled way paving the way for future applications in quantum computing and networking.

This paper introduces a procedure for testing the identifiability of Bayesian models for causal inference. Although the do-calculus is sound and complete given a causal graph, many practical assumptions cannot be expressed in terms of graph structure alone, such as the assumptions required by instrumental variable designs, regression discontinuity designs, and within-subjects designs. We present simulation-based identifiability (SBI), a fully automated identification test based on a particle optimization scheme with simulated observations. This approach expresses causal assumptions as priors over functions in a structural causal model, including flexible priors using Gaussian processes. We prove that SBI is asymptotically sound and complete, and produces practical finite-sample bounds. We also show empirically that SBI agrees with known results in graph-based identification as well as with widely-held intuitions for designs in which graph-based methods are inconclusive.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) are making significant progress in many research areas where decision making needs to be accompanied by uncertainty estimation. Being able to quantify uncertainty while making decisions is essential for understanding when the model is over-/under-confident, and hence BNNs are attracting interest in safety-critical applications, such as autonomous driving, healthcare and robotics. Nevertheless, BNNs have not been as widely used in industrial practice, mainly because of their increased memory and compute costs. In this work, we investigate quantisation of BNNs by compressing 32-bit floating-point weights and activations to their integer counterparts, that has already been successful in reducing the compute demand in standard pointwise neural networks. We study three types of quantised BNNs, we evaluate them under a wide range of different settings, and we empirically demonstrate that an uniform quantisation scheme applied to BNNs does not substantially decrease their quality of uncertainty estimation.