Causal graphs (CGs) are compact representations of the knowledge of the data generating processes behind the data distributions. When a CG is available, e.g., from the domain knowledge, we can infer the conditional independence (CI) relations that should hold in the data distribution. However, it is not straightforward how to incorporate this knowledge into predictive modeling. In this work, we propose a model-agnostic data augmentation method that allows us to exploit the prior knowledge of the CI encoded in a CG for supervised machine learning. We theoretically justify the proposed method by providing an excess risk bound indicating that the proposed method suppresses overfitting by reducing the apparent complexity of the predictor hypothesis class. Using real-world data with CGs provided by domain experts, we experimentally show that the proposed method is effective in improving the prediction accuracy, especially in the small-data regime.

Local causal structure learning aims to discover and distinguish direct causes (parents) and direct effects (children) of a variable of interest from data. While emerging successes have been made, existing methods need to search a large space to distinguish direct causes from direct effects of a target variable T. To tackle this issue, we propose a novel Efficient Local Causal Structure learning algorithm, named ELCS. Specifically, we first propose the concept of N-structures, then design an efficient Markov Blanket (MB) discovery subroutine to integrate MB learning with N-structures to learn the MB of T and simultaneously distinguish direct causes from direct effects of T. With the proposed MB subroutine, ELCS starts from the target variable, sequentially finds MBs of variables connected to the target variable and simultaneously constructs local causal structures over MBs until the direct causes and direct effects of the target variable have been distinguished. Using eight Bayesian networks the extensive experiments have validated that ELCS achieves better accuracy and efficiency than the state-of-the-art algorithms.

One of the most important problems in transfer learning is the task of domain adaptation, where the goal is to apply an algorithm trained in one or more source domains to a different (but related) target domain. This paper deals with domain adaptation in the presence of covariate shift while there exist invariances across domains. A main limitation of existing causal inference methods for solving this problem is scalability. To overcome this difficulty, we propose SCTL, an algorithm that avoids an exhaustive search and identifies invariant causal features across the source and target domains based on Markov blanket discovery. SCTL does not require to have prior knowledge of the causal structure, the type of interventions, or the intervention targets. There is an intrinsic locality associated with SCTL that makes SCTL practically scalable and robust because local causal discovery increases the power of computational independence tests and makes the task of domain adaptation computationally tractable. We show the scalability and robustness of SCTL for domain adaptation using synthetic and real data sets in low-dimensional and high-dimensional settings.

$PredDiff$ is a model-agnostic, local attribution method that is firmly rooted in probability theory. Its simple intuition is to measure prediction changes when marginalizing out feature variables. In this work, we clarify properties of $PredDiff$ and put forward several extensions of the original formalism. Most notably, we introduce a new measure for interaction effects. Interactions are an inevitable step towards a comprehensive understanding of black-box models. Importantly, our framework readily allows to investigate interactions between arbitrary feature subsets and scales linearly with their number. We demonstrate the soundness of $PredDiff$ relevances and interactions both in the classification and regression setting. To this end, we use different analytic, synthetic and real-world datasets.

In a recent paper Miranda & Zaffalon (2020) some results about compatibility or consistency of coherent sets of gambles or lower previsisons have been derived and it was remarked that these results were in fact results of the theory of information or valuation algebras (Kohlas, 2003). This point of view, however, was not worked out by Miranda & Zaffalon (2020). In this paper this issue is taken up and it is shown that coherent sets of gambles, strictly desirable sets of gambles, coherent lower and upper previsions indeed form idempotent information algebras. Like in group theory, certain results concerning particular groups follow from general group theory, so many known results about desirable gambles, lower and linear previsions are indeed properties of an information algebra and follow from the corresponding general theory. Some of these results are discussed in this paper, but there are doubtless many other properties which can be derived from the theory of information algebra.

We will be discussing the Gaussian Mixture Model. A basic prerequisite to this blog is that one must know about the Gaussian distribution. The Gaussian is also called the normal distribution by statistics people. However, the GMM is called the GMM because in this scenario the G stands for Gaussian and it's not called a normal mixture model. Let's first start with a basic intuition of what a Gaussian mixture is by considering only a single Gaussian we can begin with a typical example.

Missing time-series data is a prevalent practical problem. Imputation methods in time-series data often are applied to the full panel data with the purpose of training a model for a downstream out-of-sample task. For example, in finance, imputation of missing returns may be applied prior to training a portfolio optimization model. Unfortunately, this practice may result in a look-ahead-bias in the future performance on the downstream task. There is an inherent trade-off between the look-ahead-bias of using the full data set for imputation and the larger variance in the imputation from using only the training data. By connecting layers of information revealed in time, we propose a Bayesian posterior consensus distribution which optimally controls the variance and look-ahead-bias trade-off in the imputation. We demonstrate the benefit of our methodology both in synthetic and real financial data.

It is important to estimate the errors of probabilistic inference algorithms. Existing diagnostics for Markov chain Monte Carlo methods assume inference is asymptotically exact, and are not appropriate for approximate methods like variational inference or Laplace's method. This paper introduces a diagnostic based on repeatedly simulating datasets from the prior and performing inference on each. The central observation is that it is possible to estimate a symmetric KL-divergence defined over these simulations.

Computationally efficient contextual bandits are often based on estimating a predictive model of rewards given contexts and arms using past data. However, when the reward model is not well-specified, the bandit algorithm may incur unexpected regret, so recent work has focused on algorithms that are robust to misspecification. We propose a simple family of contextual bandit algorithms that adapt to misspecification error by reverting to a good safe policy when there is evidence that misspecification is causing a regret increase. Our algorithm requires only an offline regression oracle to ensure regret guarantees that gracefully degrade in terms of a measure of the average misspecification level. Compared to prior work, we attain similar regret guarantees, but we do no rely on a master algorithm, and do not require more robust oracles like online or constrained regression oracles (e.g., Foster et al. (2020a); Krishnamurthy et al. (2020)). This allows us to design algorithms for more general function approximation classes.

Causality is important for designing interpretable and robust methods in artificial intelligence research. We propose a local approach to identify whether a variable is a cause of a given target based on causal graphical models of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). In general, the causal relation between two variables may not be identifiable from observational data as many causal DAGs encoding different causal relations are Markov equivalent. In this paper, we first introduce a sufficient and necessary graphical condition to check the existence of a causal path from a variable to a target in every Markov equivalent DAG. Next, we provide local criteria for identifying whether the variable is a cause/non-cause of the target. Finally, we propose a local learning algorithm for this causal query via learning local structure of the variable and some additional statistical independence tests related to the target. Simulation studies show that our local algorithm is efficient and effective, compared with other state-of-art methods.