Human emotion recognition has become a need for more realistic and interactive machines and computer systems. The greatest challenge is the availability of high-performance algorithms to effectively manage individual differences and nonstationarities in physiological data streams, i.e., algorithms that self-customize to a user with no subject-specific calibration data. We describe an evolving Gaussian Fuzzy Classifier (eGFC), which is supported by an online semi-supervised learning algorithm to recognize emotion patterns from electroencephalogram (EEG) data streams. We extract features from the Fourier spectrum of EEG data. The data are provided by 28 individuals playing the games 'Train Sim World', 'Unravel', 'Slender The Arrival', and 'Goat Simulator' - a public dataset. Different emotions prevail, namely, boredom, calmness, horror and joy. We analyze the effect of individual electrodes, time window lengths, and frequency bands on the accuracy of user-independent eGFCs. We conclude that both brain hemispheres may assist classification, especially electrodes on the frontal (Af3-Af4), occipital (O1-O2), and temporal (T7-T8) areas. We observe that patterns may be eventually found in any frequency band; however, the Alpha (8-13Hz), Delta (1-4Hz), and Theta (4-8Hz) bands, in this order, are the highest correlated with emotion classes. eGFC has shown to be effective for real-time learning of EEG data. It reaches a 72.2% accuracy using a variable rule base, 10-second windows, and 1.8ms/sample processing time in a highly-stochastic time-varying 4-class classification problem.

As machine learning systems become more powerful they also become increasingly unpredictable and opaque. Yet, finding human-understandable explanations of how they work is essential for their safe deployment. This technical report illustrates a methodology for investigating the causal mechanisms that drive the behaviour of artificial agents. Six use cases are covered, each addressing a typical question an analyst might ask about an agent. In particular, we show that each question cannot be addressed by pure observation alone, but instead requires conducting experiments with systematically chosen manipulations so as to generate the correct causal evidence.

This paper presents a machine learning framework (GP-NODE) for Bayesian systems identification from partial, noisy and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of recent developments in differentiable programming to propagate gradient information through ordinary differential equation solvers and perform Bayesian inference with respect to unknown model parameters using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling and Gaussian Process priors over the observed system states. This allows us to exploit temporal correlations in the observed data, and efficiently infer posterior distributions over plausible models with quantified uncertainty. Moreover, the use of sparsity-promoting priors such as the Finnish Horseshoe for free model parameters enables the discovery of interpretable and parsimonious representations for the underlying latent dynamics. A series of numerical studies is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed GP-NODE method including predator-prey systems, systems biology, and a 50-dimensional human motion dynamical system. Taken together, our findings put forth a novel, flexible and robust workflow for data-driven model discovery under uncertainty. All code and data accompanying this manuscript are available online at \url{https://github.com/PredictiveIntelligenceLab/GP-NODEs}.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are frequently used in machine learning and statistics to construct powerful models. In a Bayesian setting, GPs provide a probabilistic approach to model unknown functions; specifically, the GP prior assumes that the function evaluated at any finite set of inputs has a Gaussian distribution with consistent parameters, specified by the mean function and symmetric positive definite covariance (or kernel) function. The flexible, probabilistic and nonparametric nature of GP models makes them appropriate and useful in a wide range of applications, including geostatistics [Matheron, 1973], atmospheric sciences [Berrocal et al., 2010], biology [Stathopoulos et al., 2014], inverse problems [Kaipio and Somersalo, 2006], and more. However, when employing GPs in practice, important considerations must be made, specifically, to address the computational burden, approximation of the posterior, form of the covariance function and inference of its hyperparmeters. First, GPs suffer from a high computational burden, due to the need to store and invert large and dense covariance matrices.

Random feature methods have been successful in various machine learning tasks, are easy to compute, and come with theoretical accuracy bounds. They serve as an alternative approach to standard neural networks since they can represent similar function spaces without a costly training phase. However, for accuracy, random feature methods require more measurements than trainable parameters, limiting their use for data-scarce applications or problems in scientific machine learning. This paper introduces the sparse random feature method that learns parsimonious random feature models utilizing techniques from compressive sensing. We provide uniform bounds on the approximation error for functions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space depending on the number of samples and the distribution of features. The error bounds improve with additional structural conditions, such as coordinate sparsity, compact clusters of the spectrum, or rapid spectral decay. We show that the sparse random feature method outperforms shallow networks for well-structured functions and applications to scientific machine learning tasks.

It is important for a broad range of applications, including policy making [136], medical imaging [30], advertisement [22], the development of medical treatments [189], the evaluation of evidence within legal frameworks [183, 218], social science [82, 96, 246], biology [235], and many others. It is also a burgeoning topic in machine learning and artificial intelligence [17, 66, 76, 144, 210, 247, 255], where it has been argued that a consideration for causality is crucial for reasoning about the world. In order to discover causal relations, and thereby gain causal understanding, one may perform interventions and manipulations as part of a randomized experiment. These experiments may not only allow researchers or agents to identify causal relationships, but also to estimate the magnitude of these relationships. Unfortunately, in many cases, it may not be possible to undertake such experiments due to prohibitive cost, ethical concerns, or impracticality.

We introduce a new approach for capturing model uncertainty for neural networks (NNs) in regression, which we call Neural Optimization-based Model Uncertainty (NOMU). The main idea of NOMU is to design a network architecture consisting of two connected sub-networks, one for the model prediction and one for the model uncertainty, and to train it using a carefully designed loss function. With this design, NOMU can provide model uncertainty for any given (previously trained) NN by plugging it into the framework as the sub-network used for model prediction. NOMU is designed to yield uncertainty bounds (UBs) that satisfy four important desiderata regarding model uncertainty, which established methods often do not satisfy. Furthermore, our UBs are themselves representable as a single NN, which leads to computational cost advantages in applications such as Bayesian optimization. We evaluate NOMU experimentally in multiple settings. For regression, we show that NOMU performs as well as or better than established benchmarks. For Bayesian optimization, we show that NOMU outperforms all other benchmarks.

Machine learning has achieved tremendous success in a variety of domains in recent years. However, a lot of these success stories have been in places where the training and the testing distributions are extremely similar to each other. In everyday situations when models are tested in slightly different data than they were trained on, ML algorithms can fail spectacularly. This research attempts to formally define this problem, what sets of assumptions are reasonable to make in our data and what kind of guarantees we hope to obtain from them. Then, we focus on a certain class of out of distribution problems, their assumptions, and introduce simple algorithms that follow from these assumptions that are able to provide more reliable generalization. A central topic in the thesis is the strong link between discovering the causal structure of the data, finding features that are reliable (when using them to predict) regardless of their context, and out of distribution generalization.

Labeling data for modern machine learning is expensive and time-consuming. Latent variable models can be used to infer labels from weaker, easier-to-acquire sources operating on unlabeled data. Such models can also be trained using labeled data, presenting a key question: should a user invest in few labeled or many unlabeled points? We answer this via a framework centered on model misspecification in method-of-moments latent variable estimation. Our core result is a bias-variance decomposition of the generalization error, which shows that the unlabeled-only approach incurs additional bias under misspecification. We then introduce a correction that provably removes this bias in certain cases. We apply our decomposition framework to three scenarios -- well-specified, misspecified, and corrected models -- to 1) choose between labeled and unlabeled data and 2) learn from their combination. We observe theoretically and with synthetic experiments that for well-specified models, labeled points are worth a constant factor more than unlabeled points. With misspecification, however, their relative value is higher due to the additional bias but can be reduced with correction. We also apply our approach to study real-world weak supervision techniques for dataset construction.

Missing values exist in nearly all clinical studies because data for a variable or question are not collected or not available. Inadequate handling of missing values can lead to biased results and loss of statistical power in analysis. Existing models usually do not consider privacy concerns or do not utilise the inherent correlations across multiple features to impute the missing values. In healthcare applications, we are usually confronted with high dimensional and sometimes small sample size datasets that need more effective augmentation or imputation techniques. Besides, imputation and augmentation processes are traditionally conducted individually. However, imputing missing values and augmenting data can significantly improve generalisation and avoid bias in machine learning models. A Bayesian approach to impute missing values and creating augmented samples in high dimensional healthcare data is proposed in this work. We propose folded Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (F-HMC) with Bayesian inference as a more practical approach to process the cross-dimensional relations by applying a random walk and Hamiltonian dynamics to adapt posterior distribution and generate large-scale samples. The proposed method is applied to a cancer symptom assessment dataset and confirmed to enrich the quality of data in precision, accuracy, recall, F1 score, and propensity metric.