Uncertainty
Differentially Private Normalizing Flows for Privacy-Preserving Density Estimation
Waites, Chris, Cummings, Rachel
Normalizing flow models have risen as a popular solution to the problem of density estimation, enabling high-quality synthetic data generation as well as exact probability density evaluation. However, in contexts where individuals are directly associated with the training data, releasing such a model raises privacy concerns. In this work, we propose the use of normalizing flow models that provide explicit differential privacy guarantees as a novel approach to the problem of privacy-preserving density estimation. We evaluate the efficacy of our approach empirically using benchmark datasets, and we demonstrate that our method substantially outperforms previous state-of-the-art approaches. We additionally show how our algorithm can be applied to the task of differentially private anomaly detection.
Active Tree Search in Large POMDPs
Maisto, Domenico, Gregoretti, Francesco, Friston, Karl, Pezzulo, Giovanni
Model-based planning and prospection are widely studied in both cognitive neuroscience and artificial intelligence (AI), but from different perspectives - and with different desiderata in mind (biological realism versus scalability) that are difficult to reconcile. Here, we introduce a novel method to plan in large POMDPs - Active Tree Search - that combines the normative character and biological realism of a leading planning theory in neuroscience (Active Inference) and the scalability of Monte-Carlo methods in AI. This unification is beneficial for both approaches. On the one hand, using Monte-Carlo planning permits scaling up the biologically grounded approach of Active Inference to large-scale problems. On the other hand, the theory of Active Inference provides a principled solution to the balance of exploration and exploitation, which is often addressed heuristically in Monte-Carlo methods. Our simulations show that Active Tree Search successfully navigates binary trees that are challenging for sampling-based methods, problems that require adaptive exploration, and the large POMDP problem Rocksample. Furthermore, we illustrate how Active Tree Search can be used to simulate neurophysiological responses (e.g., in the hippocampus and prefrontal cortex) of humans and other animals that contain large planning problems. These simulations show that Active Tree Search is a principled realisation of neuroscientific and AI theories of planning, which offers both biological realism and scalability.
Multinomial Logit Contextual Bandits: Provable Optimality and Practicality
We consider a sequential assortment selection problem where the user choice is given by a multinomial logit (MNL) choice model whose parameters are unknown. In each period, the learning agent observes a $d$-dimensional contextual information about the user and the $N$ available items, and offers an assortment of size $K$ to the user, and observes the bandit feedback of the item chosen from the assortment. We propose upper confidence bound based algorithms for this MNL contextual bandit. The first algorithm is a simple and practical method which achieves an $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(d\sqrt{T})$ regret over $T$ rounds. Next, we propose a second algorithm which achieves a $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{dT})$ regret. This matches the lower bound for the MNL bandit problem, up to logarithmic terms, and improves on the best known result by a $\sqrt{d}$ factor. To establish this sharper regret bound, we present a non-asymptotic confidence bound for the maximum likelihood estimator of the MNL model that may be of independent interest as its own theoretical contribution. We then revisit the simpler, significantly more practical, first algorithm and show that a simple variant of the algorithm achieves the optimal regret for a broad class of important applications.
Active Structure Learning of Bayesian Networks in an Observational Setting
We study active structure learning of Bayesian networks in an observational setting, in which there are external limitations on the number of variable values that can be observed from the same sample. Random samples are drawn from the joint distribution of the network variables, and the algorithm iteratively selects which variables to observe in the next sample. We propose a new active learning algorithm for this setting, that finds with a high probability a structure with a score that is $\epsilon$-close to the optimal score. We show that for a class of distributions that we term stable, a sample complexity reduction of up to a factor of $\widetilde{\Omega}(d^3)$ can be obtained, where $d$ is the number of network variables. We further show that in the worst case, the sample complexity of the active algorithm is guaranteed to be almost the same as that of a naive baseline algorithm. To supplement the theoretical results, we report experiments that compare the performance of the new active algorithm to the naive baseline and demonstrate the sample complexity improvements. Code for the algorithm and for the experiments is provided at https://github.com/noabdavid/activeBNSL.
Meta-Learning with Variational Bayes
The field of meta-learning seeks to improve the ability of today's machine learning systems to adapt efficiently to small amounts of data. Typically this is accomplished by training a system with a parametrized update rule to improve a task-relevant objective based on supervision or a reward function. However, in many domains of practical interest, task data is unlabeled, or reward functions are unavailable. In this paper we introduce a new approach to address the more general problem of generative meta-learning, which we argue is an important prerequisite for obtaining human-level cognitive flexibility in artificial agents, and can benefit many practical applications along the way. Our contribution leverages the AEVB framework and mean-field variational Bayes, and creates fast-adapting latent-space generative models. At the heart of our contribution is a new result, showing that for a broad class of deep generative latent variable models, the relevant VB updates do not depend on any generative neural network. The theoretical merits of our approach are reflected in empirical experiments.
Measure Theoretic Weighted Model Integration
Miosic, Ivan, Martires, Pedro Zuidberg Dos
Weighted model counting (WMC) is a popular framework to perform probabilistic inference with discrete random variables. Recently, WMC has been extended to weighted model integration (WMI) in order to additionally handle continuous variables. At their core, WMI problems consist of computing integrals and sums over weighted logical formulas. From a theoretical standpoint, WMI has been formulated by patching the sum over weighted formulas, which is already present in WMC, with Riemann integration. A more principled approach to integration, which is rooted in measure theory, is Lebesgue integration. Lebesgue integration allows one to treat discrete and continuous variables on equal footing in a principled fashion. We propose a theoretically sound measure theoretic formulation of weighted model integration, which naturally reduces to weighted model counting in the absence of continuous variables. Instead of regarding weighted model integration as an extension of weighted model counting, WMC emerges as a special case of WMI in our formulation.
Robust subgroup discovery
Proença, Hugo Manuel, Bäck, Thomas, van Leeuwen, Matthijs
We introduce the problem of robust subgroup discovery, i.e., finding a set of interpretable descriptions of subsets that 1) stand out with respect to one or more target attributes, 2) are statistically robust, and 3) non-redundant. Many attempts have been made to mine either locally robust subgroups or to tackle the pattern explosion, but we are the first to address both challenges at the same time from a global perspective. First, we formulate a broad model class of subgroup lists, i.e., ordered sets of subgroups, for univariate and multivariate targets that can consist of nominal or numeric variables. This novel model class allows us to formalize the problem of optimal robust subgroup discovery using the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle, where we resort to optimal Normalized Maximum Likelihood and Bayesian encodings for nominal and numeric targets, respectively. Notably, we show that our problem definition is equal to mining the top-1 subgroup with an information-theoretic quality measure plus a penalty for complexity. Second, as finding optimal subgroup lists is NP-hard, we propose RSD, a greedy heuristic that finds good subgroup lists and guarantees that the most significant subgroup found according to the MDL criterion is added in each iteration, which is shown to be equivalent to a Bayesian one-sample proportions, multinomial, or t-test between the subgroup and dataset marginal target distributions plus a multiple hypothesis testing penalty. We empirically show on 54 datasets that RSD outperforms previous subgroup set discovery methods in terms of quality and subgroup list size.
Recovery of Joint Probability Distribution from one-way marginals: Low rank Tensors and Random Projections
Vora, Jian, Gurumoorthy, Karthik S., Rajwade, Ajit
Joint probability mass function (PMF) estimation is a fundamental machine learning problem. The number of free parameters scales exponentially with respect to the number of random variables. Hence, most work on nonparametric PMF estimation is based on some structural assumptions such as clique factorization adopted by probabilistic graphical models, imposition of low rank on the joint probability tensor and reconstruction from 3-way or 2-way marginals, etc. In the present work, we link random projections of data to the problem of PMF estimation using ideas from tomography. We integrate this idea with the idea of low-rank tensor decomposition to show that we can estimate the joint density from just one-way marginals in a transformed space. We provide a novel algorithm for recovering factors of the tensor from one-way marginals, test it across a variety of synthetic and real-world datasets, and also perform MAP inference on the estimated model for classification.
Small Sample Spaces for Gaussian Processes
It is known that the membership in a given reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) of the samples of a Gaussian process $X$ is controlled by a certain nuclear dominance condition. However, it is less clear how to identify a "small" set of functions (not necessarily a vector space) that contains the samples. This article presents a general approach for identifying such sets. We use scaled RKHSs, which can be viewed as a generalisation of Hilbert scales, to define the sample support set as the largest set which is contained in every element of full measure under the law of $X$ in the $\sigma$-algebra induced by the collection of scaled RKHS. This potentially non-measurable set is then shown to consist of those functions that can be expanded in terms of an orthonormal basis of the RKHS of the covariance kernel of $X$ and have their squared basis coefficients bounded away from zero and infinity, a result suggested by the Karhunen-Lo\`{e}ve theorem.
Solving Inverse Problems by Joint Posterior Maximization with Autoencoding Prior
González, Mario, Almansa, Andrés, Tan, Pauline
In this work we address the problem of solving ill-posed inverse problems in imaging where the prior is a variational autoencoder (VAE). Specifically we consider the decoupled case where the prior is trained once and can be reused for many different log-concave degradation models without retraining. Whereas previous MAP-based approaches to this problem lead to highly non-convex optimization algorithms, our approach computes the joint (space-latent) MAP that naturally leads to alternate optimization algorithms and to the use of a stochastic encoder to accelerate computations. The resulting technique (JPMAP) performs Joint Posterior Maximization using an Autoencoding Prior. We show theoretical and experimental evidence that the proposed objective function is quite close to bi-convex. Indeed it satisfies a weak bi-convexity property which is sufficient to guarantee that our optimization scheme converges to a stationary point. We also highlight the importance of correctly training the VAE using a denoising criterion, in order to ensure that the encoder generalizes well to out-of-distribution images, without affecting the quality of the generative model. This simple modification is key to providing robustness to the whole procedure. Finally we show how our joint MAP methodology relates to more common MAP approaches, and we propose a continuation scheme that makes use of our JPMAP algorithm to provide more robust MAP estimates. Experimental results also show the higher quality of the solutions obtained by our JPMAP approach with respect to other non-convex MAP approaches which more often get stuck in spurious local optima.