Uncertainty
Identifying Co-Adaptation of Algorithmic and Implementational Innovations in Deep Reinforcement Learning: A Taxonomy and Case Study of Inference-based Algorithms
Furuta, Hiroki, Kozuno, Tadashi, Matsushima, Tatsuya, Matsuo, Yutaka, Gu, Shixiang Shane
Recently many algorithms were devised for reinforcement learning (RL) with function approximation. While they have clear algorithmic distinctions, they also have many implementation differences that are algorithm-agnostic and sometimes subtle. Such mixing of algorithmic novelty and implementation craftsmanship makes rigorous analyses of the sources of performance improvements difficult. In this work, we focus on a series of inference-based actor-critic algorithms -- MPO, AWR, and SAC -- to decouple their algorithmic innovations and implementation decisions. We present unified derivations through a single control-as-inference objective, where we can categorize each algorithm as based on either Expectation-Maximization (EM) or direct Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence minimization and treat the rest of specifications as implementation details. We performed extensive ablation studies, and identified substantial performance drops whenever implementation details are mismatched for algorithmic choices. These results show which implementation details are co-adapted and co-evolved with algorithms, and which are transferable across algorithms: as examples, we identified that tanh policy and network sizes are highly adapted to algorithmic types, while layer normalization and ELU are critical for MPO's performances but also transfer to noticeable gains in SAC. We hope our work can inspire future work to further demystify sources of performance improvements across multiple algorithms and allow researchers to build on one another's both algorithmic and implementational innovations.
Probabilistic Analogical Mapping with Semantic Relation Networks
Lu, Hongjing, Ichien, Nicholas, Holyoak, Keith J.
These subprocesses are interrelated, with mapping considered to be the pivotal process (Gentner, 1983). Mapping may play a role in retrieval, as mapping a target analog to multiple potential source analogs stored in memory can help identify one or more that seems promising; and the correspondences computed by mapping support subsequent inference and schema induction. Thus, because of its centrality to analogical reasoning, the present paper focuses on the process of mapping between two analogs. We also consider the possible role that mapping may play in analog retrieval. Computational Approaches to Analogy Computational models of analogy have been developed in both artificial intelligence (AI) and cognitive science over more than half a century (for a recent review and critical analysis, see Mitchell, 2021). These models differ in many ways, both in terms of basic assumptions about the constraints that define a "good" analogy for humans, and in the detailed algorithms that accomplish analogical reasoning. For our present purposes, two broad approaches can be distinguished. The first approach, which can be termed representation matching, combines mental representations of structured knowledge about each analog with a matching process that computes some form of relational similarity, yielding a set of correspondences between the elements of the two analogs. The structured knowledge about an analog is typically assumed to approximate the content of propositions expressed in predicate calculus; e.g., the instantiated relation "hammer hits nail" might be coded as hit (hammer, nail).
Text Classification Using Hybrid Machine Learning Algorithms on Big Data
Asogwa, D. C., Anigbogu, S. O., Onyenwe, I. E., Sani, F. A.
Recently, there are unprecedented data growth originating from different online platforms which contribute to big data in terms of volume, velocity, variety and veracity (4Vs). Given this nature of big data which is unstructured, performing analytics to extract meaningful information is currently a great challenge to big data analytics. Collecting and analyzing unstructured textual data allows decision makers to study the escalation of comments/posts on our social media platforms. Hence, there is need for automatic big data analysis to overcome the noise and the non-reliability of these unstructured dataset from the digital media platforms. However, current machine learning algorithms used are performance driven focusing on the classification/prediction accuracy based on known properties learned from the training samples. With the learning task in a large dataset, most machine learning models are known to require high computational cost which eventually leads to computational complexity. In this work, two supervised machine learning algorithms are combined with text mining techniques to produce a hybrid model which consists of Na\"ive Bayes and support vector machines (SVM). This is to increase the efficiency and accuracy of the results obtained and also to reduce the computational cost and complexity. The system also provides an open platform where a group of persons with a common interest can share their comments/messages and these comments classified automatically as legal or illegal. This improves the quality of conversation among users. The hybrid model was developed using WEKA tools and Java programming language. The result shows that the hybrid model gave 96.76% accuracy as against the 61.45% and 69.21% of the Na\"ive Bayes and SVM models respectively.
Contracting and Involutive Negations of Probability Distributions
A dozen papers have considered the concept of negation of probability distributions (pd) introduced by Yager. Usually, such negations are generated point-by-point by functions defined on a set of probability values and called here negators. Recently it was shown that Yager's negator plays a crucial role in the definition of pd-independent linear negators: any linear negator is a function of Yager's negator. Here, we prove that the sequence of multiple negations of pd generated by a linear negator converges to the uniform distribution with maximal entropy. We show that any pd-independent negator is non-involutive, and any nontrivial linear negator is strictly contracting. Finally, we introduce an involutive negator in the class of pddependent negators that generates an involutive negation of probability distributions. Keywords: Probability distribution, contracting negation, involutive negation 1. Introduction The concept of the negation of a probability distribution (pd) was introduced by Yager [1].
Prediction of Ultrasonic Guided Wave Propagation in Solid-fluid and their Interface under Uncertainty using Machine Learning
De, Subhayan, Hai, Bhuiyan Shameem Mahmood Ebna, Doostan, Alireza, Bause, Markus
Structural health monitoring (SHM) systems use the non-destructive testing principle for damage identification. As part of SHM, the propagation of ultrasonic guided waves (UGWs) is tracked and analyzed for the changes in the associated wave pattern. These changes help identify the location of a structural damage, if any. We advance existing research by accounting for uncertainty in the material and geometric properties of a structure. The physics model used in this study comprises of a monolithically coupled system of acoustic and elastic wave equations, known as the wave propagation in fluid-solid and their interface (WpFSI) problem. As the UGWs propagate in the solid, fluid, and their interface, the wave signal displacement measurements are contrasted against the benchmark pattern. For the numerical solution, we develop an efficient algorithm that successfully addresses the inherent complexity of solving the multiphysics problem under uncertainty. We present a procedure that uses Gaussian process regression and convolutional neural network for predicting the UGW propagation in a solid-fluid and their interface under uncertainty. First, a set of training images for different realizations of the uncertain parameters of the inclusion inside the structure is generated using a monolithically-coupled system of acoustic and elastic wave equations. Next, Gaussian processes trained with these images are used for predicting the propagated wave with convolutional neural networks for further enhancement to produce high-quality images of the wave patterns for new realizations of the uncertainty. The results indicate that the proposed approach provides an accurate prediction for the WpFSI problem in the presence of uncertainty.
Modelling Heterogeneity Using Bayesian Structured Sparsity
How to estimate heterogeneity, e.g. the effect of some variable differing across observations, is a key question in political science. Methods for doing so make simplifying assumptions about the underlying nature of the heterogeneity to draw reliable inferences. This paper allows a common way of simplifying complex phenomenon (placing observations with similar effects into discrete groups) to be integrated into regression analysis. The framework allows researchers to (i) use their prior knowledge to guide which groups are permissible and (ii) appropriately quantify uncertainty. The paper does this by extending work on "structured sparsity" from a traditional penalized likelihood approach to a Bayesian one by deriving new theoretical results and inferential techniques. It shows that this method outperforms state-of-the-art methods for estimating heterogeneous effects when the underlying heterogeneity is grouped and more effectively identifies groups of observations with different effects in observational data.
Machine learning based digital twin for stochastic nonlinear multi-degree of freedom dynamical system
Garg, Shailesh, Gogoi, Ankush, Chakraborty, Souvik, Hazra, Budhaditya
The potential of digital twin technology is immense, specifically in the infrastructure, aerospace, and automotive sector. However, practical implementation of this technology is not at an expected speed, specifically because of lack of application-specific details. In this paper, we propose a novel digital twin framework for stochastic nonlinear multi-degree of freedom (MDOF) dynamical systems. The approach proposed in this paper strategically decouples the problem into two time-scales -- (a) a fast time-scale governing the system dynamics and (b) a slow time-scale governing the degradation in the system. The proposed digital twin has four components - (a) a physics-based nominal model (low-fidelity), (b) a Bayesian filtering algorithm a (c) a supervised machine learning algorithm and (d) a high-fidelity model for predicting future responses. The physics-based nominal model combined with Bayesian filtering is used combined parameter state estimation and the supervised machine learning algorithm is used for learning the temporal evolution of the parameters. While the proposed framework can be used with any choice of Bayesian filtering and machine learning algorithm, we propose to use unscented Kalman filter and Gaussian process. Performance of the proposed approach is illustrated using two examples. Results obtained indicate the applicability and excellent performance of the proposed digital twin framework.
Risk Bounds for Learning via Hilbert Coresets
Douglas, Spencer, Kumar, Piyush, Prasanth, R. K.
We develop a formalism for constructing stochastic upper bounds on the expected full sample risk for supervised classification tasks via the Hilbert coresets approach within a transductive framework. We explicitly compute tight and meaningful bounds for complex datasets and complex hypothesis classes such as state-of-the-art deep neural network architectures. The bounds we develop exhibit nice properties: i) the bounds are non-uniform in the hypothesis space H, ii) in many practical examples, the bounds become effectively deterministic by appropriate choice of prior and training data-dependent posterior distributions on the hypothesis space, and iii) the bounds become significantly better with increase in the size of the training set. We also lay out some ideas to explore for future research. Generalization bounds for learning provide a theoretical guarantee on the performance of a learning algorithm on unseen data. The goal of such bounds is to provide control of the error on unseen data with pre-specified confidence. In certain situations, such bounds may also help in designing new learning algorithms.
Structure Learning of Contextual Markov Networks using Marginal Pseudo-likelihood
Pensar, Johan, Nyman, Henrik, Corander, Jukka
Markov networks are popular models for discrete multivariate systems where the dependence structure of the variables is specified by an undirected graph. To allow for more expressive dependence structures, several generalizations of Markov networks have been proposed. Here we consider the class of contextual Markov networks which takes into account possible context-specific independences among pairs of variables. Structure learning of contextual Markov networks is very challenging due to the extremely large number of possible structures. One of the main challenges has been to design a score, by which a structure can be assessed in terms of model fit related to complexity, without assuming chordality. Here we introduce the marginal pseudo-likelihood as an analytically tractable criterion for general contextual Markov networks. Our criterion is shown to yield a consistent structure estimator. Experiments demonstrate the favorable properties of our method in terms of predictive accuracy of the inferred models.
Gaussian Process Convolutional Dictionary Learning
Song, Andrew H., Tolooshams, Bahareh, Ba, Demba
Convolutional dictionary learning (CDL), the problem of estimating shift-invariant templates from data, is typically conducted in the absence of a prior/structure on the templates. In data-scarce or low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) regimes, which have received little attention from the community, learned templates overfit the data and lack smoothness, which can affect the predictive performance of downstream tasks. To address this limitation, we propose GPCDL, a convolutional dictionary learning framework that enforces priors on templates using Gaussian Processes (GPs). With the focus on smoothness, we show theoretically that imposing a GP prior is equivalent to Wiener filtering the learned templates, thereby suppressing high-frequency components and promoting smoothness. We show that the algorithm is a simple extension of the classical iteratively reweighted least squares, which allows the flexibility to experiment with different smoothness assumptions. Through simulation, we show that GPCDL learns smooth dictionaries with better accuracy than the unregularized alternative across a range of SNRs. Through an application to neural spiking data from rats, we show that learning templates by GPCDL results in a more accurate and visually-interpretable smooth dictionary, leading to superior predictive performance compared to non-regularized CDL, as well as parametric alternatives.