We develop simple methods for constructing likelihoods and parameter priors for learning about the parameters and structure of a Bayesian network. In particular, we introduce several assumptions that permit the construction of likelihoods and parameter priors for a large number of Bayesian-network structures from a small set of assessments. The most notable assumption is that of likelihood equivalence, which says that data can not help to discriminate network structures that encode the same assertions of conditional independence. We describe the constructions that follow from these assumptions, and also present a method for directly computing the marginal likelihood of a random sample with no missing observations. Also, we show how these assumptions lead to a general framework for characterizing parameter priors of multivariate distributions.

This note is meant to provide an introduction to linear models and the theories behind them. Our goal is to give a rigorous introduction to the readers with prior exposure to ordinary least squares. In machine learning, the output is usually a nonlinear function of the input. Deep learning even aims to find a nonlinear dependence with many layers which require a large amount of computation. However, most of these algorithms build upon simple linear models. We then describe linear models from different views and find the properties and theories behind the models. The linear model is the main technique in regression problems and the primary tool for it is the least squares approximation which minimizes a sum of squared errors. This is a natural choice when we're interested in finding the regression function which minimizes the corresponding expected squared error. We first describe ordinary least squares from three different points of view upon which we disturb the model with random noise and Gaussian noise. By Gaussian noise, the model gives rise to the likelihood so that we introduce a maximum likelihood estimator. It also develops some distribution theories for it via this Gaussian disturbance. The distribution theory of least squares will help us answer various questions and introduce related applications. We then prove least squares is the best unbiased linear model in the sense of mean squared error and most importantly, it actually approaches the theoretical limit. We end up with linear models with the Bayesian approach and beyond.

Neural networks (NNs) have shown high predictive performance, however, with shortcomings. Firstly, the reasons behind the classifications are not fully understood. Several explanation methods have been developed, but they do not provide mechanisms for users to interact with the explanations. Explanations are social, meaning they are a transfer of knowledge through interactions. Nonetheless, current explanation methods contribute only to one-way communication. Secondly, NNs tend to be overconfident, providing unreasonable uncertainty estimates on out-of-distribution observations. We overcome these difficulties by training a Bayesian convolutional neural network (CNN) that uses explanation feedback. After training, the model presents explanations of training sample classifications to an annotator. Based on the provided information, the annotator can accept or reject the explanations by providing feedback. Our proposed method utilizes this feedback for fine-tuning to correct the model such that the explanations and classifications improve. We use existing CNN architectures to demonstrate the method's effectiveness on one toy dataset (decoy MNIST) and two real-world datasets (Dogs vs. Cats and ISIC skin cancer). The experiments indicate that few annotated explanations and fine-tuning epochs are needed to improve the model and predictive performance, making the model more trustworthy and understandable.

In real life, lots of information merges from time to time. To appropriately describe the actual situations, lots of theories have been proposed. Among them, Dempster-Shafer evidence theory is a very useful tool in managing uncertain information. To better adapt to complex situations of open world, a generalized evidence theory is designed. However, everything occurs in sequence and owns some underlying relationships with each other. In order to further embody the details of information and better conforms to situations of real world, a Markov model is introduced into the generalized evidence theory which helps extract complete information volume from evidence provided. Besides, some numerical examples is offered to verify the correctness and rationality of the proposed method.

Artificial neural networks will always make a prediction, even when completely uncertain and regardless of the consequences. This obliviousness of uncertainty is a major obstacle towards their adoption in practice. Techniques exist, however, to estimate the two major types of uncertainty: model uncertainty and observation noise in the data. Bayesian neural networks are theoretically well-founded models that can learn the model uncertainty of their predictions. Minor modifications to these models and their loss functions allow learning the observation noise for individual samples as well. This paper is the first to apply these techniques to predictive process monitoring. We found that they contribute towards more accurate predictions and work quickly. However, their main benefit resides with the uncertainty estimates themselves that allow the separation of higher-quality from lower-quality predictions and the building of confidence intervals. This leads to many interesting applications, enables an earlier adoption of prediction systems with smaller datasets and fosters a better cooperation with humans.

Mixed linear regression (MLR) model is among the most exemplary statistical tools for modeling non-linear distributions using a mixture of linear models. When the additive noise in MLR model is Gaussian, Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is a widely-used algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of MLR parameters. However, when noise is non-Gaussian, the steps of EM algorithm may not have closed-form update rules, which makes EM algorithm impractical. In this work, we study the maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of MLR model when the additive noise has non-Gaussian distribution. In particular, we consider the case that noise has Laplacian distribution and we first show that unlike the the Gaussian case, the resulting sub-problems of EM algorithm in this case does not have closed-form update rule, thus preventing us from using EM in this case. To overcome this issue, we propose a new algorithm based on combining the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) with EM algorithm idea. Our numerical experiments show that our method outperforms the EM algorithm in statistical accuracy and computational time in non-Gaussian noise case.

Bell's theorem is typically understood as the proof that quantum theory is incompatible with local hidden variable models. More generally, we can see the violation of a Bell inequality as witnessing the impossibility of explaining quantum correlations with classical causal models. The violation of a Bell inequality, however, does not exclude classical models where some level of measurement dependence is allowed, that is, the choice made by observers can be correlated with the source generating the systems to be measured. Here we show that the level of measurement dependence can be quantitatively upper bounded if we arrange the Bell test within a network. Furthermore, we also prove that these results can be adapted in order to derive non-linear Bell inequalities for a large class of causal networks and to identify quantumly realizable correlations which violate them.

A primary motivation for the development and implementation of structural health monitoring systems, is the prospect of gaining the ability to make informed decisions regarding the operation and maintenance of structures and infrastructure. Unfortunately, descriptive labels for measured data corresponding to health-state information for the structure of interest are seldom available prior to the implementation of a monitoring system. This issue limits the applicability of the traditional supervised and unsupervised approaches to machine learning in the development of statistical classifiers for decision-supporting SHM systems. The current paper presents a risk-based formulation of active learning, in which the querying of class-label information is guided by the expected value of said information for each incipient data point. When applied to structural health monitoring, the querying of class labels can be mapped onto the inspection of a structure of interest in order to determine its health state. In the current paper, the risk-based active learning process is explained and visualised via a representative numerical example and subsequently applied to the Z24 Bridge benchmark. The results of the case studies indicate that a decision-maker's performance can be improved via the risk-based active learning of a statistical classifier, such that the decision process itself is taken into account.

We study the problem of learning Bayesian networks where an $\epsilon$-fraction of the samples are adversarially corrupted. We focus on the fully-observable case where the underlying graph structure is known. In this work, we present the first nearly-linear time algorithm for this problem with a dimension-independent error guarantee. Previous robust algorithms with comparable error guarantees are slower by at least a factor of $(d/\epsilon)$, where $d$ is the number of variables in the Bayesian network and $\epsilon$ is the fraction of corrupted samples. Our algorithm and analysis are considerably simpler than those in previous work. We achieve this by establishing a direct connection between robust learning of Bayesian networks and robust mean estimation. As a subroutine in our algorithm, we develop a robust mean estimation algorithm whose runtime is nearly-linear in the number of nonzeros in the input samples, which may be of independent interest.

We propose a Multiscale Invertible Generative Network (MsIGN) and associated training algorithm that leverages multiscale structure to solve high-dimensional Bayesian inference. To address the curse of dimensionality, MsIGN exploits the low-dimensional nature of the posterior, and generates samples from coarse to fine scale (low to high dimension) by iteratively upsampling and refining samples. MsIGN is trained in a multi-stage manner to minimize the Jeffreys divergence, which avoids mode dropping in high-dimensional cases. On two high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems, we show superior performance of MsIGN over previous approaches in posterior approximation and multiple mode capture. On the natural image synthesis task, MsIGN achieves superior performance in bits-per-dimension over baseline models and yields great interpret-ability of its neurons in intermediate layers.