Deep ensembles can be seen as the current state-of-the-art for uncertainty quantification in deep learning. While the approach was originally proposed as an non-Bayesian technique, arguments towards its Bayesian footing have been put forward as well. We show that deep ensembles can be viewed as an approximate Bayesian method by specifying the corresponding assumptions. Our finding leads to an improved approximation which results in an increased epistemic part of the uncertainty. Numerical examples suggest that the improved approximation can lead to more reliable uncertainties. Analytical derivations ensure easy calculation of results.

"The key distinguishing property of a Bayesian approach is marginalization instead of optimization, where we represent solutions given by all settings of parameters weighted by their posterior probabilities, rather than bet everything on a single setting of parameters." The time is ripe to dig into marginalization vs optimization, and broaden our general understanding of the Bayesian approach.

Graphical models provide a natural framework for probabilistic modeling and for inference with a large number of random variables. The framework has numerous applications including in computer vision, artificial intelligence, error correcting codes, and statistical physics. Exact inference in graphical models is NP-hard so it is essential to develop approximate inference algorithms that are computationally tractable. Belief propagation is a widely used message passing algorithm that can be used to perform either exact or approximate inference in a graphical model depending on the topology of the graph. This algorithm was first introduced by Judea Pearl in the early 1980s as a method to perform exact inference on a tree-structured graph in polynomial time [15].

This research paper proposes a novel Neighbourhood Rough Set based approach for supervised Multi-document Text Summarization (MDTS) with analysis and impact on the summarization results for MDTS. Here, Rough Set based LERS algorithm is improved using Neighborhood Rough Set which is itself a novel combination called Neighborhood-LERS to be experimented for evaluations of efficacy and efficiency. In this paper, we shall apply and evaluate the proposed Neighborhood-LERS for Multi-document Summarization which here is proved experimentally to be superior to the base LERS technique for MDTS.

In this work, we have proposed augmented KRnets including both discrete and continuous models. One difficulty in flow-based generative modeling is to maintain the invertibility of the transport map, which is often a trade-off between effectiveness and robustness. The exact invertibility has been achieved in the real NVP using a specific pattern to exchange information between two separated groups of dimensions. KRnet has been developed to enhance the information exchange among data dimensions by incorporating the Knothe-Rosenblatt rearrangement into the structure of the transport map. Due to the maintenance of the exact invertibility, a full nonlinear update of all data dimensions needs three iterations in KRnet. To alleviate this issue, we will add augmented dimensions that act as a channel for the data dimensions to exchange information. In the augmented KRnet, a fully nonlinear update is achieved in two iterations. We also show that the augmented KRnet can be reformulated as the discretization of a neural ODE, where the exact invertibility is kept such that the adjoint method can be formulated with respect to the discretized ODE to obtain the exact gradient. Numerical experiments have been implemented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our models.

MIT press provides another excellent book in creative commons. I plan to buy it and I recommend you do. This book provides a broad introduction to algorithms for decision making under uncertainty. An agent is an entity that acts based on observations of its environment. The interaction between the agent and the environment follows an observe-act cycle or loop.

We consider the problem of modeling trajectories of drivers in a road network from the perspective of inverse reinforcement learning. As rational agents, drivers are trying to maximize some reward function unknown to an external observer as they make up their trajectories. We apply the concept of random utility from microeconomic theory to model the unknown reward function as a function of observable features plus an error term which represents features known only to the driver. We develop a parameterized generative model for the trajectories based on a random utility Markov decision process formulation of drivers decisions. We show that maximum entropy inverse reinforcement learning is a particular case of our proposed formulation when we assume a Gumbel density function for the unobserved reward error terms. We illustrate Bayesian inference on model parameters through a case study with real trajectory data from a large city obtained from sensors placed on sparsely distributed points on the street network.

In this paper, we show that coherent sets of gambles can be embedded into the algebraic structure of information algebra. This leads firstly, to a new perspective of the algebraic and logical structure of desirability and secondly, it connects desirability, hence imprecise probabilities, to other formalism in computer science sharing the same underlying structure. Both the domain-free and the labeled view of the information algebra of coherent sets of gambles are presented, considering general possibility spaces.

Bayesian structure learning allows inferring Bayesian network structure from data while reasoning about the epistemic uncertainty -- a key element towards enabling active causal discovery and designing interventions in real world systems. In this work, we propose a general, fully differentiable framework for Bayesian structure learning (DiBS) that operates in the continuous space of a latent probabilistic graph representation. Building on recent advances in variational inference, we use DiBS to devise an efficient method for approximating posteriors over structural models. Contrary to existing work, DiBS is agnostic to the form of the local conditional distributions and allows for joint posterior inference of both the graph structure and the conditional distribution parameters. This makes our method directly applicable to posterior inference of nonstandard Bayesian network models, e.g., with nonlinear dependencies encoded by neural networks. In evaluations on simulated and real-world data, DiBS significantly outperforms related approaches to joint posterior inference.

A test is adaptive when its sequence and number of questions is dynamically tuned on the basis of the estimated skills of the taker. Graphical models, such as Bayesian networks, are used for adaptive tests as they allow to model the uncertainty about the questions and the skills in an explainable fashion, especially when coping with multiple skills. A better elicitation of the uncertainty in the question/skills relations can be achieved by interval probabilities. This turns the model into a credal network, thus making more challenging the inferential complexity of the queries required to select questions. This is especially the case for the information theoretic quantities used as scores to drive the adaptive mechanism. We present an alternative family of scores, based on the mode of the posterior probabilities, and hence easier to explain. This makes considerably simpler the evaluation in the credal case, without significantly affecting the quality of the adaptive process. Numerical tests on synthetic and real-world data are used to support this claim.