Normalizing flows are invertible neural networks with tractable change-of-volume terms, which allows optimization of their parameters to be efficiently performed via maximum likelihood. However, data of interest is typically assumed to live in some (often unknown) low-dimensional manifold embedded in high-dimensional ambient space. The result is a modelling mismatch since -- by construction -- the invertibility requirement implies high-dimensional support of the learned distribution. Injective flows, mapping from low- to high-dimensional space, aim to fix this discrepancy by learning distributions on manifolds, but the resulting volume-change term becomes more challenging to evaluate. Current approaches either avoid computing this term entirely using various heuristics, or assume the manifold is known beforehand and therefore are not widely applicable. Instead, we propose two methods to tractably calculate the gradient of this term with respect to the parameters of the model, relying on careful use of automatic differentiation and techniques from numerical linear algebra. Both approaches perform end-to-end nonlinear manifold learning and density estimation for data projected onto this manifold. We study the trade-offs between our proposed methods, empirically verify that we outperform approaches ignoring the volume-change term by more accurately learning manifolds and the corresponding distributions on them, and show promising results on out-of-distribution detection.

We investigate the connections between sparse approximation methods for making kernel methods and Gaussian processes (GPs) scalable to massive data, focusing on the Nystr\"om method and the Sparse Variational Gaussian Processes (SVGP). While sparse approximation methods for GPs and kernel methods share some algebraic similarities, the literature lacks a deep understanding of how and why they are related. This is a possible obstacle for the communications between the GP and kernel communities, making it difficult to transfer results from one side to the other. Our motivation is to remove this possible obstacle, by clarifying the connections between the sparse approximations for GPs and kernel methods. In this work, we study the two popular approaches, the Nystr\"om and SVGP approximations, in the context of a regression problem, and establish various connections and equivalences between them. In particular, we provide an RKHS interpretation of the SVGP approximation, and show that the Evidence Lower Bound of the SVGP contains the objective function of the Nystr\"om approximation, revealing the origin of the algebraic equivalence between the two approaches. We also study recently established convergence results for the SVGP and how they are related to the approximation quality of the Nystr\"om method.

The paper investigates the properties of a fuzzy logic of typicality. The extension of fuzzy logic with a typicality operator was proposed in recent work to define a fuzzy multipreference semantics for Multilayer Perceptrons, by regarding the deep neural network as a conditional knowledge base. In this paper, we study its properties. First, a monotonic extension of a fuzzy ALC with typicality is considered (called ALCFT) and a reformulation the KLM properties of a preferential consequence relation for this logic is devised. Most of the properties are satisfied, depending on the reformulation and on the fuzzy combination functions considered. We then strengthen ALCFT with a closure construction by introducing a notion of faithful model of a weighted knowledge base, which generalizes the notion of coherent model of a conditional knowledge base previously introduced, and we study its properties.

The main challenge in Bayesian models is to determine the posterior for the model parameters. Already, in models with only one or few parameters, the analytical posterior can only be determined in special settings. In Bayesian neural networks, variational inference is widely used to approximate difficult-to-compute posteriors by variational distributions. Usually, Gaussians are used as variational distributions (Gaussian-VI) which limits the quality of the approximation due to their limited flexibility. Transformation models on the other hand are flexible enough to fit any distribution. Here we present transformation model-based variational inference (TM-VI) and demonstrate that it allows to accurately approximate complex posteriors in models with one parameter and also works in a mean-field fashion for multi-parameter models like neural networks.

Gaussian processes (GPs) are non-parametric Bayesian models that are widely used for diverse prediction tasks. Previous work in adding strong privacy protection to GPs via differential privacy (DP) has been limited to protecting only the privacy of the prediction targets (model outputs) but not inputs. We break this limitation by introducing GPs with DP protection for both model inputs and outputs. We achieve this by using sparse GP methodology and publishing a private variational approximation on known inducing points. The approximation covariance is adjusted to approximately account for the added uncertainty from DP noise. The approximation can be used to compute arbitrary predictions using standard sparse GP techniques. We propose a method for hyperparameter learning using a private selection protocol applied to validation set log-likelihood. Our experiments demonstrate that given sufficient amount of data, the method can produce accurate models under strong privacy protection.

In this paper we leverage on probability over Riemannian manifolds to rethink the interpretation of priors and posteriors in Bayesian inference. The main mindshift is to move away from the idea that "a prior distribution establishes a probability distribution over the parameters of our model" to the idea that "a prior distribution establishes a probability distribution over probability distributions". To do that we assume that our probabilistic model is a Riemannian manifold with the Fisher metric. Under this mindset, any distribution over probability distributions should be "intrinsic", that is, invariant to the specific parametrization which is selected for the manifold. We exemplify our ideas through a simple analysis of distributions over the manifold of Bernoulli distributions. One of the major shortcomings of maximum a posteriori estimates is that they depend on the parametrization. Based on the understanding developed here, we can define the maximum a posteriori estimate which is independent of the parametrization.

This paper discusses a new variant of the Henry Gas Solubility Optimization (HGSO) Algorithm, called Hybrid HGSO (HHGSO). Unlike its predecessor, HHGSO allows multiple clusters serving different individual meta-heuristic algorithms (i.e., with its own defined parameters and local best) to coexist within the same population. Exploiting the dynamic cluster-to-algorithm mapping via penalized and reward model with adaptive switching factor, HHGSO offers a novel approach for meta-heuristic hybridization consisting of Jaya Algorithm, Sooty Tern Optimization Algorithm, Butterfly Optimization Algorithm, and Owl Search Algorithm, respectively. The acquired results from the selected two case studies (i.e., involving team formation problem and combinatorial test suite generation) indicate that the hybridization has notably improved the performance of HGSO and gives superior performance against other competing meta-heuristic and hyper-heuristic algorithms.

Bayesian phylogenetic inference is often conducted via local or sequential search over topologies and branch lengths using algorithms such as random-walk Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or Combinatorial Sequential Monte Carlo (CSMC). However, when MCMC is used for evolutionary parameter learning, convergence requires long runs with inefficient exploration of the state space. We introduce Variational Combinatorial Sequential Monte Carlo (VCSMC), a powerful framework that establishes variational sequential search to learn distributions over intricate combinatorial structures. We then develop nested CSMC, an efficient proposal distribution for CSMC and prove that nested CSMC is an exact approximation to the (intractable) locally optimal proposal. We use nested CSMC to define a second objective, VNCSMC which yields tighter lower bounds than VCSMC. We show that VCSMC and VNCSMC are computationally efficient and explore higher probability spaces than existing methods on a range of tasks.

Recently, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has worked with other federal agencies to identify counties with increasing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence (hotspots) and offers support to local health departments to limit the spread of the disease. Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of hotspot events is of great importance to support policy decisions and prevent large-scale outbreaks. This paper presents a spatio-temporal Bayesian framework for early detection of COVID-19 hotspots (at the county level) in the United States. We assume both the observed number of cases and hotspots depend on a class of latent random variables, which encode the underlying spatio-temporal dynamics of the transmission of COVID-19. Such latent variables follow a zero-mean Gaussian process, whose covariance is specified by a non-stationary kernel function. The most salient feature of our kernel function is that deep neural networks are introduced to enhance the model's representative power while still enjoying the interpretability of the kernel. We derive a sparse model and fit the model using a variational learning strategy to circumvent the computational intractability for large data sets. Our model demonstrates better interpretability and superior hotspot-detection performance compared to other baseline methods.

Reparameterization (RP) and likelihood ratio (LR) gradient estimators are used to estimate gradients of expectations throughout machine learning and reinforcement learning; however, they are usually explained as simple mathematical tricks, with no insight into their nature. We use a first principles approach to explain that LR and RP are alternative methods of keeping track of the movement of probability mass, and the two are connected via the divergence theorem. Moreover, we show that the space of all possible estimators combining LR and RP can be completely parameterized by a flow field $u(x)$ and an importance sampling distribution $q(x)$. We prove that there cannot exist a single-sample estimator of this type outside our characterized space, thus, clarifying where we should be searching for better Monte Carlo gradient estimators.