Performative predictions are forecasts which influence the outcomes they aim to predict, undermining the existence of correct forecasts and standard methods of elicitation and estimation. We show that conditioning forecasts on covariates that separate them from the outcome renders the target distribution forecast-invariant, guaranteeing well-posedness of the forecasting problem. However, even under this condition, classical proper scoring rules fail to elicit correct forecasts. We prove a general impossibility result and identify two solutions: (i) in decision-theoretic settings, elicitation of correct and incentive-compatible forecasts is possible if forecasts are separating; (ii) scoring with unbiased estimates of the divergence between the forecast and the induced distribution of the target variable yields correct forecasts. Applying these insights to parameter estimation, conditional forecasts and proper scoring rules enable performatively stable estimation of performatively correct parameters, resolving the issues raised by Perdomo et al. (2020). Our results expose fundamental limits of classical forecast evaluation and offer new tools for reliable and accurate forecasting in performative settings.

Computational methods for learning to sample from the Boltzmann distribution-- where the target distribution is known only up to an unnormalized energy function-- have advanced significantly recently. Due to the lack of explicit target samples, however, prior diffusion-based methods, known as diffusion samplers, often require importance-weighted estimation or complicated learning processes.

In this work, we consider the data-driven assortment optimization problem under the linear multinomial logit (MNL) choice model. We first establish an improved confidence region for the maximum-likelihood-estimator (MLE) of the d-dimensional linear MNL likelihood function that removes the explicit dependency on a problem-dependent parameter κ 1 in previous result [42], which scales exponentially with the radius of the parameter set. Building on the confidence region result, we investigate the data-driven assortment optimization problem in both offline and online settings.

People's goal-directed behaviors are influenced by their cognitive biases, and autonomous systems that interact with people should be aware of this. For example, people's attention to objects in their environment will be biased in a way that systematically affects how they perform everyday tasks such as driving to work. Here, building on recent work in computational cognitive science, we formally articulate the attention-aware inverse planning problem, in which the goal is to estimate a person's attentional biases from their actions. We demonstrate how attention-aware inverse planning systematically differs from standard inverse reinforcement learning and how cognitive biases can be inferred from behavior. Finally, we present an approach to attention-aware inverse planning that combines deep reinforcement learning with computational cognitive modeling. We use this approach to infer the attentional strategies of RL agents in real-life driving scenarios selected from the Waymo Open Dataset, demonstrating the scalability of estimating cognitive biases with attention-aware inverse planning.

Sample-wise learning curves plot performance versus training set size. They are useful for studying scaling laws and speeding up hyperparameter tuning and model selection. Learning curves are often assumed to be well-behaved: monotone (i.e.

Computational epidemiology is crucial in understanding and controlling infectious diseases, as highlighted by large-scale outbreaks such as COVID-19. Given the inherent uncertainty and variability of disease spread, Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are widely used to predict infection peaks, estimate reproduction numbers, and evaluate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). While effective, MC-based methods require numerous runs to achieve statistically reliable estimates and variance, which suffer from high computational costs. In this work, we present a unified theoretical framework for analyzing disease spread dynamics on both directed and undirected contact networks, and propose an algorithm, RAPID, that significantly improves computational efficiency.

Effective modelling of uncertain information is crucial for quantifying uncertainty. Dempster-Shafer evidence (DSE) theory is a widely recognized approach for handling uncertain information. However, current methods often neglect the inherent a priori information within data during modelling, and imbalanced data lead to insufficient attention to key information in the model. To address these limitations, this paper presents a dynamic learning strategy based on nonuniform splitting mechanism and Hilbert space mapping. First, the framework uses a nonuniform splitting mechanism to dynamically adjust the weights of data subsets and combines the diffusion factor to effectively incorporate the data a priori information, thereby flexibly addressing uncertainty and conflict. Second, the conflict in the information fusion process is reduced by Hilbert space mapping. Experimental results on multiple tasks show that the proposed method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods and effectively improves the performance of classification and low-light image enhancement (LLIE) tasks. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Third-ED16.

Machine learning-based decision support systems are increasingly deployed in clinical settings, where probabilistic scoring functions are used to inform and prioritize patient management decisions. However, widely used scoring rules, such as accuracy and AUC-ROC, fail to adequately reflect key clinical priorities, including calibration, robustness to distributional shifts, and sensitivity to asymmetric error costs. In this work, we propose a principled yet practical evaluation framework for selecting calibrated thresholded classifiers that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in class prevalences and domain-specific cost asymmetries. Building on the theory of proper scoring rules, particularly the Schervish representation, we derive an adjusted variant of cross-entropy (log score) that averages cost-weighted performance over clinically relevant ranges of class balance. The resulting evaluation is simple to apply, sensitive to clinical deployment conditions, and designed to prioritize models that are both calibrated and robust to real-world variations.

Generative modeling of non-negative, discrete data, such as symbolic music, remains challenging due to two persistent limitations in existing methods. First, most approaches rely on modeling continuous embeddings, which are not wellsuited for inherently discrete data distributions.

Protein structure prediction models are now capable of generating accurate 3D structural hypotheses from sequence alone. However, they routinely fail to capture the conformational diversity of dynamic biomolecular complexes, often requiring heuristic MSA subsampling approaches for generating alternative states. In parallel, cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) has emerged as a powerful tool for imaging near-native structural heterogeneity, but is challenged by arduous pipelines to transform raw experimental data into atomic models. Here, we bridge the gap between these modalities, combining cryo-EM density maps with the rich sequence and biophysical priors learned by protein structure prediction models. Our method, CryoBoltz, guides the sampling trajectory of a pretrained biomolecular structure prediction model using both global and local structural constraints derived from density maps, driving predictions towards conformational states consistent with the experimental data. We demonstrate that this flexible yet powerful inferencetime approach allows us to build atomic models into heterogeneous cryo-EM maps across a variety of dynamic biomolecular systems including transporters and antibodies.