Uncertainty
Shape Modeling with Spline Partitions
Ge, Shufei, Wang, Shijia, Elliott, Lloyd
Shape modelling (with methods that output shapes) is a new and important task in Bayesian nonparametrics and bioinformatics. In this work, we focus on Bayesian nonparametric methods for capturing shapes by partitioning a space using curves. In related work, the classical Mondrian process is used to partition spaces recursively with axis-aligned cuts, and is widely applied in multi-dimensional and relational data. The Mondrian process outputs hyper-rectangles. Recently, the random tessellation process was introduced as a generalization of the Mondrian process, partitioning a domain with non-axis aligned cuts in an arbitrary dimensional space, and outputting polytopes. Motivated by these processes, in this work, we propose a novel parallelized Bayesian nonparametric approach to partition a domain with curves, enabling complex data-shapes to be acquired. We apply our method to HIV-1-infected human macrophage image dataset, and also simulated datasets sets to illustrate our approach. We compare to support vector machines, random forests and state-of-the-art computer vision methods such as simple linear iterative clustering super pixel image segmentation. We develop an R package that is available at \url{https://github.com/ShufeiGe/Shape-Modeling-with-Spline-Partitions}.
Tolerance-Guided Policy Learning for Adaptable and Transferrable Delicate Industrial Insertion
Niu, Boshen, Wang, Chenxi, Liu, Changliu
Policy learning for delicate industrial insertion tasks (e.g., PC board assembly) is challenging. This paper considers two major problems: how to learn a diversified policy (instead of just one average policy) that can efficiently handle different workpieces with minimum amount of training data, and how to handle defects of workpieces during insertion. To address the problems, we propose tolerance-guided policy learning. To encourage transferability of the learned policy to different workpieces, we add a task embedding to the policy's input space using the insertion tolerance. Then we train the policy using generative adversarial imitation learning with reward shaping (RS-GAIL) on a variety of representative situations. To encourage adaptability of the learned policy to handle defects, we build a probabilistic inference model that can output the best inserting pose based on failed insertions using the tolerance model. The best inserting pose is then used as a reference to the learned policy. This proposed method is validated on a sequence of IC socket insertion tasks in simulation. The results show that 1) RS-GAIL can efficiently learn optimal policies under sparse rewards; 2) the tolerance embedding can enhance the transferability of the learned policy; 3) the probabilistic inference makes the policy robust to defects on the workpieces.
Fake News and Phishing Detection Using a Machine Learning Trained Expert System
Fitzpatrick, Benjamin, Liang, Xinyu "Sherwin", Straub, Jeremy
Expert systems have been used to enable computers to make recommendations and decisions. This paper presents the use of a machine learning trained expert system (MLES) for phishing site detection and fake news detection. Both topics share a similar goal: to design a rule-fact network that allows a computer to make explainable decisions like domain experts in each respective area. The phishing website detection study uses a MLES to detect potential phishing websites by analyzing site properties (like URL length and expiration time). The fake news detection study uses a MLES rule-fact network to gauge news story truthfulness based on factors such as emotion, the speaker's political affiliation status, and job. The two studies use different MLES network implementations, which are presented and compared herein. The fake news study utilized a more linear design while the phishing project utilized a more complex connection structure. Both networks' inputs are based on commonly available data sets.
Stochastic Deep Model Reference Adaptive Control
Joshi, Girish, Chowdhary, Girish
In this paper, we present a Stochastic Deep Neural Network-based Model Reference Adaptive Control. Building on our work "Deep Model Reference Adaptive Control", we extend the controller capability by using Bayesian deep neural networks (DNN) to represent uncertainties and model non-linearities. Stochastic Deep Model Reference Adaptive Control uses a Lyapunov-based method to adapt the output-layer weights of the DNN model in real-time, while a data-driven supervised learning algorithm is used to update the inner-layers parameters. This asynchronous network update ensures boundedness and guaranteed tracking performance with a learning-based real-time feedback controller. A Bayesian approach to DNN learning helped avoid over-fitting the data and provide confidence intervals over the predictions. The controller's stochastic nature also ensured "Induced Persistency of excitation," leading to convergence of the overall system signal.
Staged trees and asymmetry-labeled DAGs
Varando, Gherardo, Carli, Federico, Leonelli, Manuele
Bayesian networks are a widely-used class of probabilistic graphical models capable of representing symmetric conditional independence between variables of interest using the topology of the underlying graph. They can be seen as a special case of the much more general class of models called staged trees, which can represent any type of non-symmetric conditional independence. Here we formalize the relationship between these two models and introduce a minimal Bayesian network representation of the staged tree, which can be used to read conditional independences in an intuitive way. Furthermore, we define a new labeled graph, termed asymmetry-labeled directed acyclic graph, whose edges are labeled to denote the type of dependence existing between any two random variables. Various datasets are used to illustrate the methodology, highlighting the need to construct models which more flexibly encode and represent non-symmetric structures.
Sparse Continuous Distributions and Fenchel-Young Losses
Martins, André F. T., Treviso, Marcos, Farinhas, António, Aguiar, Pedro M. Q., Figueiredo, Mário A. T., Blondel, Mathieu, Niculae, Vlad
Exponential families are widely used in machine learning; they include many distributions in continuous and discrete domains (e.g., Gaussian, Dirichlet, Poisson, and categorical distributions via the softmax transformation). Distributions in each of these families have fixed support. In contrast, for finite domains, there has been recent works on sparse alternatives to softmax (e.g. sparsemax, $\alpha$-entmax, and fusedmax) and corresponding losses, which have varying support. This paper expands that line of work in several directions: first, it extends $\Omega$-regularized prediction maps and Fenchel-Young losses to arbitrary domains (possibly countably infinite or continuous). For linearly parametrized families, we show that minimization of Fenchel-Young losses is equivalent to moment matching of the statistics, generalizing a fundamental property of exponential families. When $\Omega$ is a Tsallis negentropy with parameter $\alpha$, we obtain "deformed exponential families," which include $\alpha$-entmax and sparsemax ($\alpha$ = 2) as particular cases. For quadratic energy functions in continuous domains, the resulting densities are $\beta$-Gaussians, an instance of elliptical distributions that contain as particular cases the Gaussian, biweight, triweight and Epanechnikov densities, and for which we derive closed-form expressions for the variance, Tsallis entropy, and Fenchel-Young loss. When $\Omega$ is a total variation or Sobolev regularizer, we obtain a continuous version of the fusedmax. Finally, we introduce continuous-domain attention mechanisms, deriving efficient gradient backpropagation algorithms for $\alpha \in \{1, 4/3, 3/2, 2\}$. Using them, we demonstrate our sparse continuous distributions for attention-based audio classification and visual question answering, showing that they allow attending to time intervals and compact regions.
Nonparametric posterior learning for emission tomography with multimodal data
Goncharov, Fedor, Barat, Éric, Dautremer, Thomas
In this work we continue studies of the uncertainty quantification problem in emission tomographies such as PET or SPECT. In particular, we consider a scenario when additional multimodal data (e.g., anatomical MRI images) are available. To solve the aforementioned problem we adapt the recently proposed nonparametric posterior learning technique to the context of Poisson-type data in emission tomography. Using this approach we derive sampling algorithms which are trivially parallelizable, scalable and very easy to implement. In addition, we prove conditional consistency and tightness for the distribution of produced samples in the small noise limit (i.e., when the acquisition time tends to infinity) and derive new geometrical and necessary condition on how MRI images must be used. This condition arises naturally in the context of misspecified generalized Poisson models. We also contrast our approach with bayesian MCMC sampling based one one data augmentation scheme which is very popular in the context of EM-type algorithms for PET or SPECT. We show theoretically and also numerically that such data augmentation significantly increases mixing times for the Markov chain. In view of this, our algorithms seem to give a reasonable trade-off between design complexity, scalability, numerical load and asessement for the uncertainty quantification.
The application of artificial intelligence in software engineering: a review challenging conventional wisdom
Batarseh, Feras A., Mohod, Rasika, Kumar, Abhinav, Bui, Justin
The field of artificial intelligence (AI) is witnessing a recent upsurge in research, tools development, and deployment of applications. Multiple software companies are shifting their focus to developing intelligent systems; and many others are deploying AI paradigms to their existing processes. In parallel, the academic research community is injecting AI paradigms to provide solutions to traditional engineering problems. Similarly, AI has evidently been proved useful to software engineering (SE). When one observes the SE phases (requirements, design, development, testing, release, and maintenance), it becomes clear that multiple AI paradigms (such as neural networks, machine learning, knowledge-based systems, natural language processing) could be applied to improve the process and eliminate many of the major challenges that the SE field has been facing. This survey chapter is a review of the most commonplace methods of AI applied to SE. The review covers methods between years 1975-2017, for the requirements phase, 46 major AI-driven methods are found, 19 for design, 15 for development, 68 for testing, and 15 for release and maintenance. Furthermore, the purpose of this chapter is threefold; firstly, to answer the following questions: is there sufficient intelligence in the SE lifecycle? What does applying AI to SE entail? Secondly, to measure, formulize, and evaluate the overlap of SE phases and AI disciplines. Lastly, this chapter aims to provide serious questions to challenging the current conventional wisdom (i.e., status quo) of the state-of-the-art, craft a call for action, and to redefine the path forward.
Electrical peak demand forecasting- A review
Dai, Shuang, Meng, Fanlin, Dai, Hongsheng, Wang, Qian, Chen, Xizhong
The power system is undergoing rapid evolution with the roll-out of advanced metering infrastructure and local energy applications (e.g. electric vehicles) as well as the increasing penetration of intermittent renewable energy at both transmission and distribution level, which characterizes the peak load demand with stronger randomness and less predictability and therefore poses a threat to the power grid security. Since storing large quantities of electricity to satisfy load demand is neither economically nor environmentally friendly, effective peak demand management strategies and reliable peak load forecast methods become essential for optimizing the power system operations. To this end, this paper provides a timely and comprehensive overview of peak load demand forecast methods in the literature. To our best knowledge, this is the first comprehensive review on such topic. In this paper we first give a precise and unified problem definition of peak load demand forecast. Second, 139 papers on peak load forecast methods were systematically reviewed where methods were classified into different stages based on the timeline. Thirdly, a comparative analysis of peak load forecast methods are summarized and different optimizing methods to improve the forecast performance are discussed. The paper ends with a comprehensive summary of the reviewed papers and a discussion of potential future research directions.
A Bayesian inference transcription factor activity model for the analysis of single-cell transcriptomes
Single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) has emerged as a powerful experimental approach to study cellular heterogeneity. One of the challenges in scRNA-seq data analysis is integrating different types of biological data to consistently recognize discrete biological functions and regulatory mechanisms of cells, such as transcription factor activities and gene regulatory networks in distinct cell populations. We have developed an approach to infer transcription factor activities from scRNA-seq data that leverages existing biological data on transcription factor binding sites. We show that the inferred transcription factor activities for key cell types identify regulatory transcription factors that are known to mechanistically control cell function and cell fate. The BITFAM approach not only identifies biologically meaningful transcription factor activities, but also provides valuable insights into underlying transcription factor regulatory mechanisms.