Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) are soft computing technique that follows an approach similar to human reasoning and human decision-making process, making them a valuable modeling and simulation methodology. Medical Decision Systems are complex systems consisting of many factors that may be complementary, contradictory, and competitive; these factors influence each other and determine the overall diagnosis with a different degree. Thus, FCMs are suitable to model Medical Decision Support Systems. The proposed work therefore uses FCMs arranged in hierarchical structure to classify between Diabetes, Thyroid disorders and their subtypes. Subtypes include type 1 and type 2 for diabetes and hyperthyroidism and hypothyroidism for thyroid.

Given a combinatorial search problem, it may be highly useful to enumerate its (all) solutions besides just finding one solution, or showing that none exists. The same can be stated about optimal solutions if an objective function is provided. This work goes beyond the bare enumeration of optimal solutions and addresses the computational task of solution enumeration by optimality (SEO). This task is studied in the context of Answer Set Programming (ASP) where (optimal) solutions of a problem are captured with the answer sets of a logic program encoding the problem. Existing answer-set solvers already support the enumeration of all (optimal) answer sets. However, in this work, we generalize the enumeration of optimal answer sets beyond strictly optimal ones, giving rise to the idea of answer set enumeration in the order of optimality (ASEO). This approach is applicable up to the best k answer sets or in an unlimited setting, which amounts to a process of sorting answer sets based on the objective function. As the main contribution of this work, we present the first general algorithms for the aforementioned tasks of answer set enumeration. Moreover, we illustrate the potential use cases of ASEO. First, we study how efficiently access to the next-best solutions can be achieved in a number of optimization problems that have been formalized and solved in ASP. Second, we show that ASEO provides us with an effective sampling technique for Bayesian networks.

While the forward and backward modeling of the process-structure-property chain has received a lot of attention from the materials community, fewer efforts have taken into consideration uncertainties. Those arise from a multitude of sources and their quantification and integration in the inversion process are essential in meeting the materials design objectives. The first contribution of this paper is a flexible, fully probabilistic formulation of such optimization problems that accounts for the uncertainty in the process-structure and structure-property linkages and enables the identification of optimal, high-dimensional, process parameters. We employ a probabilistic, data-driven surrogate for the structure-property link which expedites computations and enables handling of non-differential objectives. We couple this with a novel active learning strategy, i.e. a self-supervised collection of data, which significantly improves accuracy while requiring small amounts of training data. We demonstrate its efficacy in optimizing the mechanical and thermal properties of two-phase, random media but envision its applicability encompasses a wide variety of microstructure-sensitive design problems.

This paper presents two studies that use a machine learning expert system (MLES). One focuses on a system to advise to United States federal judges for regarding consistent federal criminal sentencing, based on both the federal sentencing guidelines and offender characteristics. The other study aims to develop a system that could prospectively assist the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office automate their patentability assessment process. Both studies use a machine learning-trained rule-fact expert system network to accept input variables for training and presentation and output a scaled variable that represents the system recommendation (e.g., the sentence length or the patentability assessment). This paper presents and compares the rule-fact networks that have been developed for these projects. It explains the decision-making process underlying the structures used for both networks and the pre-processing of data that was needed and performed. It also, through comparing the two systems, discusses how different methods can be used with the MLES system.

We study the problem of estimating potential revenue or demand at business facilities and understanding its generating mechanism. This problem arises in different fields such as operation research or urban science, and more generally, it is crucial for businesses' planning and decision making. We develop a Bayesian spatial interaction model, henceforth BSIM, which provides probabilistic predictions about revenues generated by a particular business location provided their features and the potential customers' characteristics in a given region. BSIM explicitly accounts for the competition among the competitive facilities through a probability value determined by evaluating a store-specific Gaussian distribution at a given customer location. We propose a scalable variational inference framework that, while being significantly faster than competing Markov Chain Monte Carlo inference schemes, exhibits comparable performances in terms of parameters identification and uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate the benefits of BSIM in various synthetic settings characterised by an increasing number of stores and customers. Finally, we construct a real-world, large spatial dataset for pub activities in London, UK, which includes over 1,500 pubs and 150,000 customer regions. We demonstrate how BSIM outperforms competing approaches on this large dataset in terms of prediction performances while providing results that are both interpretable and consistent with related indicators observed for the London region.

Shape modelling (with methods that output shapes) is a new and important task in Bayesian nonparametrics and bioinformatics. In this work, we focus on Bayesian nonparametric methods for capturing shapes by partitioning a space using curves. In related work, the classical Mondrian process is used to partition spaces recursively with axis-aligned cuts, and is widely applied in multi-dimensional and relational data. The Mondrian process outputs hyper-rectangles. Recently, the random tessellation process was introduced as a generalization of the Mondrian process, partitioning a domain with non-axis aligned cuts in an arbitrary dimensional space, and outputting polytopes. Motivated by these processes, in this work, we propose a novel parallelized Bayesian nonparametric approach to partition a domain with curves, enabling complex data-shapes to be acquired. We apply our method to HIV-1-infected human macrophage image dataset, and also simulated datasets sets to illustrate our approach. We compare to support vector machines, random forests and state-of-the-art computer vision methods such as simple linear iterative clustering super pixel image segmentation. We develop an R package that is available at \url{https://github.com/ShufeiGe/Shape-Modeling-with-Spline-Partitions}.

Policy learning for delicate industrial insertion tasks (e.g., PC board assembly) is challenging. This paper considers two major problems: how to learn a diversified policy (instead of just one average policy) that can efficiently handle different workpieces with minimum amount of training data, and how to handle defects of workpieces during insertion. To address the problems, we propose tolerance-guided policy learning. To encourage transferability of the learned policy to different workpieces, we add a task embedding to the policy's input space using the insertion tolerance. Then we train the policy using generative adversarial imitation learning with reward shaping (RS-GAIL) on a variety of representative situations. To encourage adaptability of the learned policy to handle defects, we build a probabilistic inference model that can output the best inserting pose based on failed insertions using the tolerance model. The best inserting pose is then used as a reference to the learned policy. This proposed method is validated on a sequence of IC socket insertion tasks in simulation. The results show that 1) RS-GAIL can efficiently learn optimal policies under sparse rewards; 2) the tolerance embedding can enhance the transferability of the learned policy; 3) the probabilistic inference makes the policy robust to defects on the workpieces.

Expert systems have been used to enable computers to make recommendations and decisions. This paper presents the use of a machine learning trained expert system (MLES) for phishing site detection and fake news detection. Both topics share a similar goal: to design a rule-fact network that allows a computer to make explainable decisions like domain experts in each respective area. The phishing website detection study uses a MLES to detect potential phishing websites by analyzing site properties (like URL length and expiration time). The fake news detection study uses a MLES rule-fact network to gauge news story truthfulness based on factors such as emotion, the speaker's political affiliation status, and job. The two studies use different MLES network implementations, which are presented and compared herein. The fake news study utilized a more linear design while the phishing project utilized a more complex connection structure. Both networks' inputs are based on commonly available data sets.

In this paper, we present a Stochastic Deep Neural Network-based Model Reference Adaptive Control. Building on our work "Deep Model Reference Adaptive Control", we extend the controller capability by using Bayesian deep neural networks (DNN) to represent uncertainties and model non-linearities. Stochastic Deep Model Reference Adaptive Control uses a Lyapunov-based method to adapt the output-layer weights of the DNN model in real-time, while a data-driven supervised learning algorithm is used to update the inner-layers parameters. This asynchronous network update ensures boundedness and guaranteed tracking performance with a learning-based real-time feedback controller. A Bayesian approach to DNN learning helped avoid over-fitting the data and provide confidence intervals over the predictions. The controller's stochastic nature also ensured "Induced Persistency of excitation," leading to convergence of the overall system signal.

Bayesian networks are a widely-used class of probabilistic graphical models capable of representing symmetric conditional independence between variables of interest using the topology of the underlying graph. They can be seen as a special case of the much more general class of models called staged trees, which can represent any type of non-symmetric conditional independence. Here we formalize the relationship between these two models and introduce a minimal Bayesian network representation of the staged tree, which can be used to read conditional independences in an intuitive way. Furthermore, we define a new labeled graph, termed asymmetry-labeled directed acyclic graph, whose edges are labeled to denote the type of dependence existing between any two random variables. Various datasets are used to illustrate the methodology, highlighting the need to construct models which more flexibly encode and represent non-symmetric structures.