We present a new subspace-based method to construct probabilistic models for high-dimensional data and highlight its use in anomaly detection. The approach is based on a statistical estimation of probability density using densities of random subspaces combined with geometric averaging. In selecting random subspaces, equal representation of each attribute is used to ensure correct statistical limits. Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) are used to create the probability densities for each subspace with techniques included to mitigate singularities allowing for the ability to handle both numerical and categorial attributes. The number of components for each GMM is determined automatically through Bayesian information criterion to prevent overfitting. The proposed algorithm attains competitive AUC scores compared with prominent algorithms against benchmark anomaly detection datasets with the added benefits of being simple, scalable, and interpretable.

In machine learning and statistics, computing the accuracy, or loss, of a model is crucial for understanding the quality of the model and what improvements can be made to increase accuracy. Typically, researchers choose a loss function de- pending on their task, and this loss function runs over their test set of data, after training. However, in many cases, researchers want an estimation of their loss either before they test it or in cases when testing data is not yet available. This estimation is known as expected loss, or risk, and is usually utilized in order to assess how precarious an action or event will be. The foundations of Bayesian statistics are rooted in Bayes' Theorem, a theorem developed by Thomas Bayes who was an English mathematician and theologian during the 1700s.

Stacking is a widely used model averaging technique that asymptotically yields optimal predictions among linear averages. We show that stacking is most effective when model predictive performance is heterogeneous in inputs, and we can further improve the stacked mixture with a hierarchical model. We generalize stacking to Bayesian hierarchical stacking. The model weights are varying as a function of data, partially-pooled, and inferred using Bayesian inference. We further incorporate discrete and continuous inputs, other structured priors, and time series and longitudinal data.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a flexible and powerful framework that is suitable for computationally expensive simulation-based applications and guarantees statistical convergence to the global optimum. While remaining as one of the most popular optimization methods, its capability is hindered by the size of data, the dimensionality of the considered problem, and the nature of sequential optimization. These scalability issues are intertwined with each other and must be tackled simultaneously. In this work, we propose the Scalable$^3$-BO framework, which employs sparse GP as the underlying surrogate model to scope with Big Data and is equipped with a random embedding to efficiently optimize high-dimensional problems with low effective dimensionality. The Scalable$^3$-BO framework is further leveraged with asynchronous parallelization feature, which fully exploits the computational resource on HPC within a computational budget. As a result, the proposed Scalable$^3$-BO framework is scalable in three independent perspectives: with respect to data size, dimensionality, and computational resource on HPC. The goal of this work is to push the frontiers of BO beyond its well-known scalability issues and minimize the wall-clock waiting time for optimizing high-dimensional computationally expensive applications. We demonstrate the capability of Scalable$^3$-BO with 1 million data points, 10,000-dimensional problems, with 20 concurrent workers in an HPC environment.

We study query and computationally efficient planning algorithms with linear function approximation and a simulator. We assume that the agent only has local access to the simulator, meaning that the agent can only query the simulator at states that have been visited before. This setting is more practical than many prior works on reinforcement learning with a generative model. We propose an algorithm named confident Monte Carlo least square policy iteration (Confident MC-LSPI) for this setting. Under the assumption that the Q-functions of all deterministic policies are linear in known features of the state-action pairs, we show that our algorithm has polynomial query and computational complexities in the dimension of the features, the effective planning horizon and the targeted sub-optimality, while these complexities are independent of the size of the state space. One technical contribution of our work is the introduction of a novel proof technique that makes use of a virtual policy iteration algorithm. We use this method to leverage existing results on $\ell_\infty$-bounded approximate policy iteration to show that our algorithm can learn the optimal policy for the given initial state even only with local access to the simulator. We believe that this technique can be extended to broader settings beyond this work.

We use functional mirror ascent to propose a general framework (referred to as FMA-PG) for designing policy gradient methods. The functional perspective distinguishes between a policy's functional representation (what are its sufficient statistics) and its parameterization (how are these statistics represented) and naturally results in computationally efficient off-policy updates. For simple policy parameterizations, the FMA-PG framework ensures that the optimal policy is a fixed point of the updates. It also allows us to handle complex policy parameterizations (e.g., neural networks) while guaranteeing policy improvement. Our framework unifies several PG methods and opens the way for designing sample-efficient variants of existing methods. Moreover, it recovers important implementation heuristics (e.g., using forward vs reverse KL divergence) in a principled way. With a softmax functional representation, FMA-PG results in a variant of TRPO with additional desirable properties. It also suggests an improved variant of PPO, whose robustness and efficiency we empirically demonstrate on MuJoCo. Via experiments on simple reinforcement learning problems, we evaluate algorithms instantiated by FMA-PG.

In this paper, a new interval type-2 fuzzy neural network able to construct non-separable fuzzy rules with adaptive shapes is introduced. To reflect the uncertainty, the shape of fuzzy sets considered to be uncertain. Therefore, a new form of interval type-2 fuzzy sets based on a general Gaussian model able to construct different shapes (including triangular, bell-shaped, trapezoidal) is proposed. To consider the interactions among input variables, input vectors are transformed to new feature spaces with uncorrelated variables proper for defining each fuzzy rule. Next, the new features are fed to a fuzzification layer using proposed interval type-2 fuzzy sets with adaptive shape. Consequently, interval type-2 non-separable fuzzy rules with proper shapes, considering the local interactions of variables and the uncertainty are formed. For type reduction the contribution of the upper and lower firing strengths of each fuzzy rule are adaptively selected separately. To train different parameters of the network, the Levenberg-Marquadt optimization method is utilized. The performance of the proposed method is investigated on clean and noisy datasets to show the ability to consider the uncertainty. Moreover, the proposed paradigm, is successfully applied to real-world time-series predictions, regression problems, and nonlinear system identification. According to the experimental results, the performance of our proposed model outperforms other methods with a more parsimonious structure.

The generalization error of a classifier is related to the complexity of the set of functions among which the classifier is chosen. Roughly speaking, the more complex the family, the greater the potential disparity between the training error and the population error of the classifier. This principle is embodied in layman's terms by Occam's razor principle, which suggests favoring low-complexity hypotheses over complex ones. We study a family of low-complexity classifiers consisting of thresholding the one-dimensional feature obtained by projecting the data on a random line after embedding it into a higher dimensional space parametrized by monomials of order up to k. More specifically, the extended data is projected n-times and the best classifier among those n (based on its performance on training data) is chosen. We obtain a bound on the generalization error of these low-complexity classifiers. The bound is less than that of any classifier with a non-trivial VC dimension, and thus less than that of a linear classifier. We also show that, given full knowledge of the class conditional densities, the error of the classifiers would converge to the optimal (Bayes) error as k and n go to infinity; if only a training dataset is given, we show that the classifiers will perfectly classify all the training points as k and n go to infinity.

We introduce Pathfinder, a variational method for approximately sampling from differentiable log densities. Starting from a random initialization, Pathfinder locates normal approximations to the target density along a quasi-Newton optimization path, with local covariance estimated using the inverse Hessian estimates produced by the optimizer. Pathfinder returns draws from the approximation with the lowest estimated Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to the true posterior. We evaluate Pathfinder on a wide range of posterior distributions, demonstrating that its approximate draws are better than those from automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI) and comparable to those produced by short chains of dynamic Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), as measured by 1-Wasserstein distance. Compared to ADVI and short dynamic HMC runs, Pathfinder requires one to two orders of magnitude fewer log density and gradient evaluations, with greater reductions for more challenging posteriors. Importance resampling over multiple runs of Pathfinder improves the diversity of approximate draws, reducing 1-Wasserstein distance further and providing a measure of robustness to optimization failures on plateaus, saddle points, or in minor modes. The Monte Carlo KL-divergence estimates are embarrassingly parallelizable in the core Pathfinder algorithm, as are multiple runs in the resampling version, further increasing Pathfinder's speed advantage with multiple cores.

Many scientific problems require identifying a small set of covariates that are associated with a target response and estimating their effects. Often, these effects are nonlinear and include interactions, so linear and additive methods can lead to poor estimation and variable selection. The Bayesian framework makes it straightforward to simultaneously express sparsity, nonlinearity, and interactions in a hierarchical model. But, as for the few other methods that handle this trifecta, inference is computationally intractable - with runtime at least quadratic in the number of covariates, and often worse. In the present work, we solve this computational bottleneck. We first show that suitable Bayesian models can be represented as Gaussian processes (GPs). We then demonstrate how a kernel trick can reduce computation with these GPs to O(# covariates) time for both variable selection and estimation. Our resulting fit corresponds to a sparse orthogonal decomposition of the regression function in a Hilbert space (i.e., a functional ANOVA decomposition), where interaction effects represent all variation that cannot be explained by lower-order effects. On a variety of synthetic and real datasets, our approach outperforms existing methods used for large, high-dimensional datasets while remaining competitive (or being orders of magnitude faster) in runtime.