Extracting moral sentiment from text is a vital component in understanding public opinion, social movements, and policy decisions. The Moral Foundation Theory identifies five moral foundations, each associated with a positive and negative polarity. However, moral sentiment is often motivated by its targets, which can correspond to individuals or collective entities. In this paper, we introduce morality frames, a representation framework for organizing moral attitudes directed at different entities, and come up with a novel and high-quality annotated dataset of tweets written by US politicians. Then, we propose a relational learning model to predict moral attitudes towards entities and moral foundations jointly. We do qualitative and quantitative evaluations, showing that moral sentiment towards entities differs highly across political ideologies.

Knowing the position of the robot in the world is crucial for navigation. Nowadays, Bayesian filters, such as Kalman and particle-based, are standard approaches in mobile robotics. Recently, end-to-end learning has allowed for scaling-up to high-dimensional inputs and improved generalization. However, there are still limitations to providing reliable laser navigation. Here we show a proof-of-concept of the predictive processing-inspired approach to perception applied for localization and navigation using laser sensors, without the need for odometry. We learn the generative model of the laser through self-supervised learning and perform both online state-estimation and navigation through stochastic gradient descent on the variational free-energy bound. We evaluated the algorithm on a mobile robot (TIAGo Base) with a laser sensor (SICK) in Gazebo. Results showed improved state-estimation performance when comparing to a state-of-the-art particle filter in the absence of odometry. Furthermore, conversely to standard Bayesian estimation approaches our method also enables the robot to navigate when providing the desired goal by inferring the actions that minimize the prediction error.

Probabilistic generative models are attractive for scientific modeling because their inferred parameters can be used to generate hypotheses and design experiments. This requires that the learned model provide an accurate representation of the input data and yield a latent space that effectively predicts outcomes relevant to the scientific question. Supervised Variational Autoencoders (SVAEs) have previously been used for this purpose, where a carefully designed decoder can be used as an interpretable generative model while the supervised objective ensures a predictive latent representation. Unfortunately, the supervised objective forces the encoder to learn a biased approximation to the generative posterior distribution, which renders the generative parameters unreliable when used in scientific models. This issue has remained undetected as reconstruction losses commonly used to evaluate model performance do not detect bias in the encoder. We address this previously-unreported issue by developing a second order supervision framework (SOS-VAE) that influences the decoder to induce a predictive latent representation. This ensures that the associated encoder maintains a reliable generative interpretation. We extend this technique to allow the user to trade-off some bias in the generative parameters for improved predictive performance, acting as an intermediate option between SVAEs and our new SOS-VAE. We also use this methodology to address missing data issues that often arise when combining recordings from multiple scientific experiments. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these developments using synthetic data and electrophysiological recordings with an emphasis on how our learned representations can be used to design scientific experiments.

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and related technologies have generated substantial interest among statisticians with regard to scalable methodologies for analyzing large spatial datasets. A variety of scalable spatial process models have been proposed that can be easily embedded within a hierarchical modeling framework to carry out Bayesian inference. While the focus of statistical research has mostly been directed toward innovative and more complex model development, relatively limited attention has been accorded to approaches for easily implementable scalable hierarchical models for the practicing scientist or spatial analyst. This article discusses how point-referenced spatial process models can be cast as a conjugate Bayesian linear regression that can rapidly deliver inference on spatial processes. The approach allows exact sampling directly (avoids iterative algorithms such as Markov chain Monte Carlo) from the joint posterior distribution of regression parameters, the latent process and the predictive random variables, and can be easily implemented on statistical programming environments such as R.

As an important step to fulfill the Paris Agreement and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the European Commission adopted the most ambitious package of climate impact measures in April 2021 to improve the flow of capital towards sustainable activities. For these and other international measures to be successful, reliable data is key. The ability to see the carbon footprint of companies around the world will be critical for investors to comply with the measures. However, with only a small portion of companies volunteering to disclose their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it is nearly impossible for investors to align their investment strategies with the measures. By training a machine learning model on disclosed GHG emissions, we are able to estimate the emissions of other companies globally who do not disclose their emissions. In this paper, we show that our model provides accurate estimates of corporate GHG emissions to investors such that they are able to align their investments with the regulatory measures and achieve net-zero goals.

In this paper, an interpretable classifier using an interval type-2 fuzzy neural network for detecting patients suffering from Parkinson's Disease (PD) based on analyzing the gait cycle is presented. The proposed method utilizes clinical features extracted from the vertical Ground Reaction Force (vGRF), measured by 16 wearable sensors placed in the soles of subjects' shoes and learns interpretable fuzzy rules. Therefore, experts can verify the decision made by the proposed method based on investigating the firing strength of interpretable fuzzy rules. Moreover, experts can utilize the extracted fuzzy rules for patient diagnosing or adjust them based on their knowledge. To improve the robustness of the proposed method against uncertainty and noisy sensor measurements, Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Logic is applied. To learn fuzzy rules, two paradigms are proposed: 1- A batch learning approach based on clustering available samples is applied to extract initial fuzzy rules, 2- A complementary online learning is proposed to improve the rule base encountering new labeled samples. The performance of the method is evaluated for classifying patients and healthy subjects in different conditions including the presence of noise or observing new instances. Moreover, the performance of the model is compared to some previous supervised and unsupervised machine learning approaches. The final Accuracy, Precision, Recall, and F1 Score of the proposed method are 88.74%, 89.41%, 95.10%, and 92.16%. Finally, the extracted fuzzy sets for each feature are reported.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are promising solutions to sample from target distributions in high dimensions. While MCMC methods enjoy nice theoretical properties, like guaranteed convergence and mixing to the true target, in practice their sampling efficiency depends on the choice of the proposal distribution and the target at hand. This work considers using machine learning to adapt the proposal distribution to the target, in order to improve the sampling efficiency in the purely discrete domain. Specifically, (i) it proposes a new parametrization for a family of proposal distributions, called locally balanced proposals, (ii) it defines an objective function based on mutual information and (iii) it devises a learning procedure to adapt the parameters of the proposal to the target, thus achieving fast convergence and fast mixing. We call the resulting sampler as the Locally Self-Balancing Sampler (LSB). We show through experimental analysis on the Ising model and Bayesian networks that LSB is indeed able to improve the efficiency over a state-of-the-art sampler based on locally balanced proposals, thus reducing the number of iterations required to converge, while achieving comparable mixing performance.

A novel procedure to perform fuzzy clustering of multivariate time series generated from different dependence models is proposed. Different amounts of dissimilarity between the generating models or changes on the dynamic behaviours over time are some arguments justifying a fuzzy approach, where each series is associated to all the clusters with specific membership levels. Our procedure considers quantile-based cross-spectral features and consists of three stages: (i) each element is characterized by a vector of proper estimates of the quantile cross-spectral densities, (ii) principal component analysis is carried out to capture the main differences reducing the effects of the noise, and (iii) the squared Euclidean distance between the first retained principal components is used to perform clustering through the standard fuzzy C-means and fuzzy C-medoids algorithms. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated in a broad simulation study where several types of generating processes are considered, including linear, nonlinear and dynamic conditional correlation models. Assessment is done in two different ways: by directly measuring the quality of the resulting fuzzy partition and by taking into account the ability of the technique to determine the overlapping nature of series located equidistant from well-defined clusters. The procedure is compared with the few alternatives suggested in the literature, substantially outperforming all of them whatever the underlying process and the evaluation scheme. Two specific applications involving air quality and financial databases illustrate the usefulness of our approach.

Bayesian methods have become a popular way to incorporate prior knowledge and a notion of uncertainty into machine learning models. At the same time, the complexity of modern machine learning makes it challenging to comprehend a model's reasoning process, let alone express specific prior assumptions in a rigorous manner. While primarily interested in the former issue, recent developments in transparent machine learning could also broaden the range of prior information that we can provide to complex Bayesian models. Inspired by the idea of selfexplaining models, we introduce a corresponding concept for variational Gaussian Processes. On the one hand, our contribution improves transparency for these types of models. More importantly though, our proposed self-explaining variational posterior distribution allows to incorporate both general prior knowledge about a target function as a whole and prior knowledge about the contribution of individual features.

We consider the use of Gaussian process (GP) priors for solving inverse problems in a Bayesian framework. As is well known, the computational complexity of GPs scales cubically in the number of datapoints. We here show that in the context of inverse problems involving integral operators, one faces additional difficulties that hinder inversion on large grids. Furthermore, in that context, covariance matrices can become too large to be stored. By leveraging results about sequential disintegrations of Gaussian measures, we are able to introduce an implicit representation of posterior covariance matrices that reduces the memory footprint by only storing low rank intermediate matrices, while allowing individual elements to be accessed on-the-fly without needing to build full posterior covariance matrices. Moreover, it allows for fast sequential inclusion of new observations. These features are crucial when considering sequential experimental design tasks. We demonstrate our approach by computing sequential data collection plans for excursion set recovery for a gravimetric inverse problem, where the goal is to provide fine resolution estimates of high density regions inside the Stromboli volcano, Italy. Sequential data collection plans are computed by extending the weighted integrated variance reduction (wIVR) criterion to inverse problems. Our results show that this criterion is able to significantly reduce the uncertainty on the excursion volume, reaching close to minimal levels of residual uncertainty. Overall, our techniques allow the advantages of probabilistic models to be brought to bear on large-scale inverse problems arising in the natural sciences.