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 Uncertainty


Multimodal Data Fusion in High-Dimensional Heterogeneous Datasets via Generative Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The commonly used latent space embedding techniques, such as Principal Component Analysis, Factor Analysis, and manifold learning techniques, are typically used for learning effective representations of homogeneous data. However, they do not readily extend to heterogeneous data that are a combination of numerical and categorical variables, e.g., arising from linked GPS and text data. In this paper, we are interested in learning probabilistic generative models from high-dimensional heterogeneous data in an unsupervised fashion. The learned generative model provides latent unified representations that capture the factors common to the multiple dimensions of the data, and thus enable fusing multimodal data for various machine learning tasks. Following a Bayesian approach, we propose a general framework that combines disparate data types through the natural parameterization of the exponential family of distributions. To scale the model inference to millions of instances with thousands of features, we use the Laplace-Bernstein approximation for posterior computations involving nonlinear link functions. The proposed algorithm is presented in detail for the commonly encountered heterogeneous datasets with real-valued (Gaussian) and categorical (multinomial) features. Experiments on two high-dimensional and heterogeneous datasets (NYC Taxi and MovieLens-10M) demonstrate the scalability and competitive performance of the proposed algorithm on different machine learning tasks such as anomaly detection, data imputation, and recommender systems.


Marginal MAP Estimation for Inverse RL under Occlusion with Observer Noise

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider the problem of learning the behavioral preferences of an expert engaged in a task from noisy and partially-observable demonstrations. This is motivated by real-world applications such as a line robot learning from observing a human worker, where some observations are occluded by environmental objects that cannot be removed. Furthermore, robotic perception tends to be imperfect and noisy. Previous techniques for inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) take the approach of either omitting the missing portions or inferring it as part of expectation-maximization, which tends to be slow and prone to local optima. We present a new method that generalizes the well-known Bayesian maximum-a-posteriori (MAP) IRL method by marginalizing the occluded portions of the trajectory. This is additionally extended with an observation model to account for perception noise. We show that the marginal MAP (MMAP) approach significantly improves on the previous IRL technique under occlusion in both formative evaluations on a toy problem and in a summative evaluation on an onion sorting line task by a robot.


Improving Regression Uncertainty Estimation Under Statistical Change

arXiv.org Machine Learning

While deep neural networks are highly performant and successful in a wide range of real-world problems, estimating their predictive uncertainty remains a challenging task. To address this challenge, we propose and implement a loss function for regression uncertainty estimation based on the Bayesian Validation Metric (BVM) framework while using ensemble learning. A series of experiments on in-distribution data show that the proposed method is competitive with existing state-of-the-art methods. In addition, experiments on out-of-distribution data show that the proposed method is robust to statistical change and exhibits superior predictive capability.


How to use KL-divergence to construct conjugate priors, with well-defined non-informative limits, for the multivariate Gaussian

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The Wishart distribution is the standard conjugate prior for the precision of the multivariate Gaussian likelihood, when the mean is known -- while the normal-Wishart can be used when the mean is also unknown. It is however not so obvious how to assign values to the hyperparameters of these distributions. In particular, when forming non-informative limits of these distributions, the shape (or degrees of freedom) parameter of the Wishart must be handled with care. The intuitive solution of directly interpreting the shape as a pseudocount and letting it go to zero, as proposed by some authors, violates the restrictions on the shape parameter. We show how to use the scaled KL-divergence between multivariate Gaussians as an energy function to construct Wishart and normal-Wishart conjugate priors. When used as informative priors, the salient feature of these distributions is the mode, while the KL scaling factor serves as the pseudocount. The scale factor can be taken down to the limit at zero, to form non-informative priors that do not violate the restrictions on the Wishart shape parameter. This limit is non-informative in the sense that the posterior mode is identical to the maximum likelihood estimate of the parameters of the Gaussian.


On Solving a Stochastic Shortest-Path Markov Decision Process as Probabilistic Inference

#artificialintelligence

We propose solving the general Stochastic Shortest-Path Markov Decision Process (SSP MDP) as probabilistic inference. Furthermore, we discuss online and offline methods for planning under uncertainty. In an SSP MDP, the horizon is indefinite and unknown a priori. SSP MDPs generalize finite and infinite horizon MDPs and are widely used in the artificial intelligence community. Additionally, we highlight some of the differences between solving an MDP using dynamic programming approaches widely used in the artificial intelligence community and approaches used in the active inference community.


DROMO: Distributionally Robust Offline Model-based Policy Optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider the problem of offline reinforcement learning with model-based control, whose goal is to learn a dynamics model from the experience replay and obtain a pessimism-oriented agent under the learned model. Current model-based constraint includes explicit uncertainty penalty and implicit conservative regularization that pushes Q-values of out-of-distribution state-action pairs down and the in-distribution up. While the uncertainty estimation, on which the former relies on, can be loosely calibrated for complex dynamics, the latter performs slightly better. To extend the basic idea of regularization without uncertainty quantification, we propose distributionally robust offline model-based policy optimization (DROMO), which leverages the ideas in distributionally robust optimization to penalize a broader range of out-of-distribution state-action pairs beyond the standard empirical out-of-distribution Q-value minimization. We theoretically show that our method optimizes a lower bound on the ground-truth policy evaluation, and it can be incorporated into any existing policy gradient algorithms. We also analyze the theoretical properties of DROMO's linear and non-linear instantiations.


Multiagent Multimodal Categorization for Symbol Emergence: Emergent Communication via Interpersonal Cross-modal Inference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper describes a computational model of multiagent multimodal categorization that realizes emergent communication. We clarify whether the computational model can reproduce the following functions in a symbol emergence system, comprising two agents with different sensory modalities playing a naming game. (1) Function for forming a shared lexical system that comprises perceptual categories and corresponding signs, formed by agents through individual learning and semiotic communication between agents. (2) Function to improve the categorization accuracy in an agent via semiotic communication with another agent, even when some sensory modalities of each agent are missing. (3) Function that an agent infers unobserved sensory information based on a sign sampled from another agent in the same manner as cross-modal inference. We propose an interpersonal multimodal Dirichlet mixture (Inter-MDM), which is derived by dividing an integrative probabilistic generative model, which is obtained by integrating two Dirichlet mixtures (DMs). The Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm realizes emergent communication. The experimental results demonstrated that Inter-MDM enables agents to form multimodal categories and appropriately share signs between agents. It is shown that emergent communication improves categorization accuracy, even when some sensory modalities are missing. Inter-MDM enables an agent to predict unobserved information based on a shared sign.


Deceptive Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the design of autonomous agents that are capable of deceiving outside observers about their intentions while carrying out tasks in stochastic, complex environments. By modeling the agent's behavior as a Markov decision process, we consider a setting where the agent aims to reach one of multiple potential goals while deceiving outside observers about its true goal. We propose a novel approach to model observer predictions based on the principle of maximum entropy and to efficiently generate deceptive strategies via linear programming. The proposed approach enables the agent to exhibit a variety of tunable deceptive behaviors while ensuring the satisfaction of probabilistic constraints on the behavior. We evaluate the performance of the proposed approach via comparative user studies and present a case study on the streets of Manhattan, New York, using real travel time distributions.


Bilateral Denoising Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) have emerged as competitive generative models yet brought challenges to efficient sampling. In this paper, we propose novel bilateral denoising diffusion models (BDDMs), which take significantly fewer steps to generate high-quality samples. From a bilateral modeling objective, BDDMs parameterize the forward and reverse processes with a score network and a scheduling network, respectively. We show that a new lower bound tighter than the standard evidence lower bound can be derived as a surrogate objective for training the two networks. In particular, BDDMs are efficient, simple-to-train, and capable of further improving any pre-trained DDPM by optimizing the inference noise schedules. Our experiments demonstrated that BDDMs can generate high-fidelity samples with as few as 3 sampling steps and produce comparable or even higher quality samples than DDPMs using 1000 steps with only 16 sampling steps (a 62x speedup).


On Solving a Stochastic Shortest-Path Markov Decision Process as Probabilistic Inference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose solving the general Stochastic Shortest-Path Markov Decision Process (SSP MDP) as probabilistic inference. Furthermore, we discuss online and offline methods for planning under uncertainty. In an SSP MDP, the horizon is indefinite and unknown a priori. SSP MDPs generalize finite and infinite horizon MDPs and are widely used in the artificial intelligence community. Additionally, we highlight some of the differences between solving an MDP using dynamic programming approaches widely used in the artificial intelligence community and approaches used in the active inference community.