We present Probabilistic Decision Model and Notation (pDMN), a probabilistic extension of Decision Model and Notation (DMN). DMN is a modeling notation for deterministic decision logic, which intends to be user-friendly and low in complexity. pDMN extends DMN with probabilistic reasoning, predicates, functions, quantification, and a new hit policy. At the same time, it aims to retain DMN's user-friendliness to allow its usage by domain experts without the help of IT staff. pDMN models can be unambiguously translated into ProbLog programs to answer user queries. ProbLog is a probabilistic extension of Prolog flexibly enough to model and reason over any pDMN model.

Black-box optimization formulations for biological sequence design have drawn recent attention due to their promising potential impact on the pharmaceutical industry. In this work, we propose to unify two seemingly distinct worlds: likelihood-free inference and black-box sequence design, under one probabilistic framework. In tandem, we provide a recipe for constructing various sequence design methods based on this framework. We show how previous drug discovery approaches can be "reinvented" in our framework, and further propose new probabilistic sequence design algorithms. Extensive experiments illustrate the benefits of the proposed methodology.

At the #universityofoxford I focus a lot on the mathematics aspect of AI   I recommend eight books for the mathematics of AI     The Nature Of Statistical Le…

Explaining predictions from Bayesian networks, for example to physicians, is non-trivial. Various explanation methods for Bayesian network inference have appeared in literature, focusing on different aspects of the underlying reasoning. While there has been a lot of technical research, there is very little known about how well humans actually understand these explanations. In this paper, we present ongoing research in which four different explanation approaches were compared through a survey by asking a group of human participants to interpret the explanations.

Many causal inference approaches have focused on identifying an individual's outcome change due to a potential treatment, or the individual treatment effect (ITE), from observational studies. Rather than only estimating the ITE, we propose Collaborating Causal Networks (CCN) to estimate the full potential outcome distributions. This modification facilitates estimating the utility of each treatment and allows for individual variation in utility functions (e.g., variability in risk tolerance). We show that CCN learns distributions that asymptotically capture the correct potential outcome distributions under standard causal inference assumptions. Furthermore, we develop a new adjustment approach that is empirically effective in alleviating sample imbalance between treatment groups in observational studies. We evaluate CCN by extensive empirical experiments and demonstrate improved distribution estimates compared to existing Bayesian and Generative Adversarial Network-based methods. Additionally, CCN empirically improves decisions over a variety of utility functions.

We investigate a clustering problem with data from a mixture of Gaussians that share a common but unknown, and potentially ill-conditioned, covariance matrix. We start by considering Gaussian mixtures with two equally-sized components and derive a Max-Cut integer program based on maximum likelihood estimation. We prove its solutions achieve the optimal misclassification rate when the number of samples grows linearly in the dimension, up to a logarithmic factor. However, solving the Max-cut problem appears to be computationally intractable. To overcome this, we develop an efficient spectral algorithm that attains the optimal rate but requires a quadratic sample size. Although this sample complexity is worse than that of the Max-cut problem, we conjecture that no polynomial-time method can perform better. Furthermore, we gather numerical and theoretical evidence that supports the existence of a statistical-computational gap. Finally, we generalize the Max-Cut program to a $k$-means program that handles multi-component mixtures with possibly unequal weights. It enjoys similar optimality guarantees for mixtures of distributions that satisfy a transportation-cost inequality, encompassing Gaussian and strongly log-concave distributions.

This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of stochastic systems affected by external manipulation (interventions). This thesis contributes to the research areas concerning the estimation of causal effects, causal structure learning, and distributionally robust (out-of-distribution generalizing) prediction methods. We present novel and consistent linear and non-linear causal effects estimators in instrumental variable settings that employ data-dependent mean squared prediction error regularization. Our proposed estimators show, in certain settings, mean squared error improvements compared to both canonical and state-of-the-art estimators. We show that recent research on distributionally robust prediction methods has connections to well-studied estimators from econometrics. This connection leads us to prove that general K-class estimators possess distributional robustness properties. We, furthermore, propose a general framework for distributional robustness with respect to intervention-induced distributions. In this framework, we derive sufficient conditions for the identifiability of distributionally robust prediction methods and present impossibility results that show the necessity of several of these conditions. We present a new structure learning method applicable in additive noise models with directed trees as causal graphs. We prove consistency in a vanishing identifiability setup and provide a method for testing substructure hypotheses with asymptotic family-wise error control that remains valid post-selection. Finally, we present heuristic ideas for learning summary graphs of nonlinear time-series models.

We are interested in the challenging problem of modelling densities on Riemannian manifolds with a known symmetry group using normalising flows. This has many potential applications in physical sciences such as molecular dynamics and quantum simulations. In this work we combine ideas from implicit neural layers and optimal transport theory to propose a generalisation of existing work on exponential map flows, Implicit Riemannian Concave Potential Maps, IRCPMs. IRCPMs have some nice properties such as simplicity of incorporating symmetries and are less expensive than ODE-flows. We provide an initial theoretical analysis of its properties and layout sufficient conditions for stable optimisation. Finally, we illustrate the properties of IRCPMs with density estimation experiments on tori and spheres.

Besides the Laplace distribution and the Gaussian distribution, there are many more probability distributions which is not well-understood in terms of privacy-preserving property of a random draw -- one of which is the Dirichlet distribution. In this work, we study the inherent privacy of releasing a single draw from a Dirichlet posterior distribution. As a complement to the previous study that provides general theories on the differential privacy of posterior sampling from exponential families, this study focuses specifically on the Dirichlet posterior sampling and its privacy guarantees. With the notion of truncated concentrated differential privacy (tCDP), we are able to derive a simple privacy guarantee of the Dirichlet posterior sampling, which effectively allows us to analyze its utility in various settings. Specifically, we prove accuracy guarantees of private Multinomial-Dirichlet sampling, which is prevalent in Bayesian tasks, and private release of a normalized histogram. In addition, with our results, it is possible to make Bayesian reinforcement learning differentially private by modifying the Dirichlet sampling for state transition probabilities.

End-to-end learners for autonomous driving are deep neural networks that predict the instantaneous steering angle directly from images of the ahead-lying street. These learners must provide reliable uncertainty estimates for their predictions in order to meet safety requirements and initiate a switch to manual control in areas of high uncertainty. Yet end-to-end learners typically only deliver point predictions, since distributional predictions are associated with large increases in training time or additional computational resources during prediction. To address this shortcoming we investigate efficient and scalable approximate inference for the implicit copula neural linear model of Klein, Nott and Smith (2021) in order to quantify uncertainty for the predictions of end-to-end learners. The result are densities for the steering angle that are marginally calibrated, i.e.~the average of the estimated densities equals the empirical distribution of steering angles. To ensure the scalability to large $n$ regimes, we develop efficient estimation based on variational inference as a fast alternative to computationally intensive, exact inference via Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We demonstrate the accuracy and speed of the variational approach in comparison to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo on two end-to-end learners trained for highway driving using the comma2k19 data set. The implicit copula neural linear model delivers accurate calibration, high-quality prediction intervals and allows to identify overconfident learners. Our approach also contributes to the explainability of black-box end-to-end learners, since predictive densities can be used to understand which steering actions the end-to-end learner sees as valid.