We demonstrate that the space of intuitionistic fuzzy values (IFVs) with the linear order based on a score function and an accuracy function has the same algebraic structure as the one induced by the linear order based on a similarity function and an accuracy function. By introducing a new operator for IFVs via the linear order based on a score function and an accuracy function, we present that such an operator is a strong negation on IFVs. Moreover, we propose that the space of IFVs is a complete lattice and a Kleene algebra with the new operator. We also observe that the topological space of IFVs with the order topology induced by the above two linear orders is not separable and metrizable but compact and connected. From exactly new perspectives, our results partially answer three open problems posed by Atanassov [Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets: Theory and Applications, Springer, 1999] and [On Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets Theory, Springer, 2012]. Furthermore, we construct an isomorphism between the spaces of IFVs and q-rung orthopedic fuzzy values (q-ROFVs) under the corresponding linear orders. Meanwhile, we introduce the concept of the admissible similarity measures with particular orders for IFSs, extending the previous definition of the similarity measure for IFSs, and construct an admissible similarity measure with the linear order based on a score function and an accuracy function, which is effectively applied to a pattern recognition problem about the classification of building materials.

If you've ever searched for evaluation metrics to assess model accuracy, chances are that you found many different options to choose from. Accuracy is in some sense the holy grail of prediction so it's not at all surprising that the machine learning community spends a lot time thinking about it. In a world where more and more high-stake decisions are being automated, model accuracy is in fact a very valid concern. But does this recipe for model evaluation seem like a sound and complete approach to automated decision-making? Some would argue that we need to pay more attention to model uncertainty. No matter how many times you have cross-validated your model, the loss metric that it is being optimized against as well as its parameters and predictions remain inherently random variables.

Forecasting driving behavior or other sensor measurements is an essential component of autonomous driving systems. Often real-world multivariate time series data is hard to model because the underlying dynamics are nonlinear and the observations are noisy. In addition, driving data can often be multimodal in distribution, meaning that there are distinct predictions that are likely, but averaging can hurt model performance. To address this, we propose the Switching Recurrent Kalman Network (SRKN) for efficient inference and prediction on nonlinear and multi-modal time-series data. The model switches among several Kalman filters that model different aspects of the dynamics in a factorized latent state. We empirically test the resulting scalable and interpretable deep state-space model on toy data sets and real driving data from taxis in Porto. In all cases, the model can capture the multimodal nature of the dynamics in the data.

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) have performed admirably in classification tasks. However, the characterization of their classification uncertainties, required for certain applications, has been lacking. In this work, we investigate the issue by assessing DNNs' ability to estimate conditional probabilities and propose a framework for systematic uncertainty characterization. Denoting the input sample as x and the category as y, the classification task of assigning a category y to a given input x can be reduced to the task of estimating the conditional probabilities p(y|x), as approximated by the DNN at its last layer using the softmax function. Since softmax yields a vector whose elements all fall in the interval (0, 1) and sum to 1, it suggests a probabilistic interpretation to the DNN's outcome. Using synthetic and real-world datasets, we look into the impact of various factors, e.g., probability density f(x) and inter-categorical sparsity, on the precision of DNNs' estimations of p(y|x), and find that the likelihood probability density and the inter-categorical sparsity have greater impacts than the prior probability to DNNs' classification uncertainty.

We start by introducing a simple example to illustrate the kind of problems we are interested in solving. Consider the problem of estimating a parameter θ using data from a small experiment and a prior distribution constructed from similar previous experiments. The specific problem description is borrowed from [3]: Estimating the risk of tumor in a group of rats. In the evaluation of drugs for possible clinical application, studies are routinely performed on rodents. For a particular study drawn from the statistical literature, suppose the immediate aim is to estimate θ, the probability of tumor in a population of female laboratory rats of type'F344' that receive a zero dose of the drug (a control group). The data show that 4 out of 14 rats developed endometrial stromal polyps (a kind of tumor). Typically, the mean and standard deviation of underlying tumor risks are not available. Rather, historical data are available on previous experiments on similar groups of rats. In the rat tumor example, the historical data were in fact a set of observations of tumor incidence in 70 groups of rats (table 1).

After the user provides a few examples of desired outcomes, MURAL automatically infers a reward function that takes into account these examples and the agent's uncertainty for each state. Although reinforcement learning has shown success in domains such as robotics, chip placement and playing video games, it is usually intractable in its most general form. In particular, deciding when and how to visit new states in the hopes of learning more about the environment can be challenging, especially when the reward signal is uninformative. These questions of reward specification and exploration are closely connected -- the more directed and "well shaped" a reward function is, the easier the problem of exploration becomes. The answer to the question of how to explore most effectively is likely to be closely informed by the particular choice of how we specify rewards.

Deep models trained through maximum likelihood have achieved state-of-the-art results for survival analysis. Despite this training scheme, practitioners evaluate models under other criteria, such as binary classification losses at a chosen set of time horizons, e.g. Brier score (BS) and Bernoulli log likelihood (BLL). Models trained with maximum likelihood may have poor BS or BLL since maximum likelihood does not directly optimize these criteria. Directly optimizing criteria like BS requires inverse-weighting by the censoring distribution, estimation of which itself also requires inverse-weighted by the failure distribution. But neither are known. To resolve this dilemma, we introduce Inverse-Weighted Survival Games to train both failure and censoring models with respect to criteria such as BS or BLL. In these games, objectives for each model are built from re-weighted estimates featuring the other model, where the re-weighting model is held fixed during training. When the loss is proper, we show that the games always have the true failure and censoring distributions as a stationary point. This means models in the game do not leave the correct distributions once reached. We construct one case where this stationary point is unique. We show that these games optimize BS on simulations and then apply these principles on real world cancer and critically-ill patient data.

We consider the problem of learning a sparse undirected graph underlying a given set of multivariate data. We focus on graph Laplacian-related constraints on the sparse precision matrix that encodes conditional dependence between the random variables associated with the graph nodes. Under these constraints the off-diagonal elements of the precision matrix are non-positive (total positivity), and the precision matrix may not be full-rank. We investigate modifications to widely used penalized log-likelihood approaches to enforce total positivity but not the Laplacian structure. The graph Laplacian can then be extracted from the off-diagonal precision matrix. An alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm is presented and analyzed for constrained optimization under Laplacian-related constraints and lasso as well as adaptive lasso penalties. Numerical results based on synthetic data show that the proposed constrained adaptive lasso approach significantly outperforms existing Laplacian-based approaches. We also evaluate our approach on real financial data.

We consider the problem of inferring the conditional independence graph (CIG) of a sparse, high-dimensional stationary multivariate Gaussian time series. A sparse-group lasso-based frequency-domain formulation of the problem based on frequency-domain sufficient statistic for the observed time series is presented. We investigate an alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) approach for optimization of the sparse-group lasso penalized log-likelihood. We provide sufficient conditions for convergence in the Frobenius norm of the inverse PSD estimators to the true value, jointly across all frequencies, where the number of frequencies are allowed to increase with sample size. This results also yields a rate of convergence. We also empirically investigate selection of the tuning parameters based on Bayesian information criterion, and illustrate our approach using numerical examples utilizing both synthetic and real data.

We consider the problem of simulating diffusion bridges, i.e. diffusion processes that are conditioned to initialize and terminate at two given states. Diffusion bridge simulation has applications in diverse scientific fields and plays a crucial role for statistical inference of discretely-observed diffusions. This is known to be a challenging problem that has received much attention in the last two decades. In this work, we first show that the time-reversed diffusion bridge process can be simulated if one can time-reverse the unconditioned diffusion process. We introduce a variational formulation to learn this time-reversal that relies on a score matching method to circumvent intractability. We then consider another iteration of our proposed methodology to approximate the Doob's $h$-transform defining the diffusion bridge process. As our approach is generally applicable under mild assumptions on the underlying diffusion process, it can easily be used to improve the proposal bridge process within existing methods and frameworks. We discuss algorithmic considerations and extensions, and present some numerical results.