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Bayesian Inference in Python

#artificialintelligence

Originally published on Towards AI the World's Leading AI and Technology News and Media Company. If you are building an AI-related product or service, we invite you to consider becoming an AI sponsor. At Towards AI, we help scale AI and technology startups. Let us help you unleash your technology to the masses. Life is uncertain, and statistics can help us quantify certainty in this uncertain world by applying the concepts of probability and inference.


Generative Modeling by Estimating Gradients of the Data Distribution

#artificialintelligence

This blog post focuses on a promising new direction for generative modeling. We can learn score functions (gradients of log probability density functions) on a large number of noise-perturbed data distributions, then generate samples with Langevin-type sampling. The resulting generative models, often called score-based generative models, has several important advantages over existing model families: GAN-level sample quality without adversarial training, flexible model architectures, exact log-likelihood computation, and inverse problem solving without re-training models. In this blog post, we will show you in more detail the intuition, basic concepts, and potential applications of score-based generative models. Existing generative modeling techniques can largely be grouped into two categories based on how they represent probability distributions. Likelihood-based models and implicit generative models, however, both have significant limitations. Likelihood-based models either require strong restrictions on the model architecture to ensure a tractable normalizing constant for likelihood computation, or must rely on surrogate objectives to approximate maximum likelihood training.


Deep Learning Interviews: Hundreds of fully solved job interview questions from a wide range of key topics in AI

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The second edition of Deep Learning Interviews is home to hundreds of fully-solved problems, from a wide range of key topics in AI. It is designed to both rehearse interview or exam specific topics and provide machine learning MSc / PhD. students, and those awaiting an interview a well-organized overview of the field. The problems it poses are tough enough to cut your teeth on and to dramatically improve your skills-but they're framed within thought-provoking questions and engaging stories. That is what makes the volume so specifically valuable to students and job seekers: it provides them with the ability to speak confidently and quickly on any relevant topic, to answer technical questions clearly and correctly, and to fully understand the purpose and meaning of interview questions and answers. Those are powerful, indispensable advantages to have when walking into the interview room. The book's contents is a large inventory of numerous topics relevant to DL job interviews and graduate level exams. That places this work at the forefront of the growing trend in science to teach a core set of practical mathematical and computational skills. It is widely accepted that the training of every computer scientist must include the fundamental theorems of ML, and AI appears in the curriculum of nearly every university. This volume is designed as an excellent reference for graduates of such programs.


Deep Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep reinforcement learning has gathered much attention recently. Impressive results were achieved in activities as diverse as autonomous driving, game playing, molecular recombination, and robotics. In all these fields, computer programs have taught themselves to solve difficult problems. They have learned to fly model helicopters and perform aerobatic manoeuvers such as loops and rolls. In some applications they have even become better than the best humans, such as in Atari, Go, poker and StarCraft. The way in which deep reinforcement learning explores complex environments reminds us of how children learn, by playfully trying out things, getting feedback, and trying again. The computer seems to truly possess aspects of human learning; this goes to the heart of the dream of artificial intelligence. The successes in research have not gone unnoticed by educators, and universities have started to offer courses on the subject. The aim of this book is to provide a comprehensive overview of the field of deep reinforcement learning. The book is written for graduate students of artificial intelligence, and for researchers and practitioners who wish to better understand deep reinforcement learning methods and their challenges. We assume an undergraduate-level of understanding of computer science and artificial intelligence; the programming language of this book is Python. We describe the foundations, the algorithms and the applications of deep reinforcement learning. We cover the established model-free and model-based methods that form the basis of the field. Developments go quickly, and we also cover advanced topics: deep multi-agent reinforcement learning, deep hierarchical reinforcement learning, and deep meta learning.


Marginal likelihood computation for model selection and hypothesis testing: an extensive review

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This is an up-to-date introduction to, and overview of, marginal likelihood computation for model selection and hypothesis testing. Computing normalizing constants of probability models (or ratio of constants) is a fundamental issue in many applications in statistics, applied mathematics, signal processing and machine learning. This article provides a comprehensive study of the state-of-the-art of the topic. We highlight limitations, benefits, connections and differences among the different techniques. Problems and possible solutions with the use of improper priors are also described. Some of the most relevant methodologies are compared through theoretical comparisons and numerical experiments.


Knowledge Informed Machine Learning using a Weibull-based Loss Function

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning can be enhanced through the integration of external knowledge. This method, called knowledge informed machine learning, is also applicable within the field of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM). In this paper, the various methods of knowledge informed machine learning, from a PHM context, are reviewed with the goal of helping the reader understand the domain. In addition, a knowledge informed machine learning technique is demonstrated, using the common IMS and PRONOSTIA bearing data sets, for remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. Specifically, knowledge is garnered from the field of reliability engineering which is represented through the Weibull distribution. The knowledge is then integrated into a neural network through a novel Weibull-based loss function. A thorough statistical analysis of the Weibull-based loss function is conducted, demonstrating the effectiveness of the method on the PRONOSTIA data set. However, the Weibull-based loss function is less effective on the IMS data set. The results, shortcomings, and benefits of the approach are discussed in length. Finally, all the code is publicly available for the benefit of other researchers.


A integrating critic-waspas group decision making method under interval-valued q-rung orthogonal fuzzy enviroment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper provides a new tool for multi-attribute multi-objective group decision-making with unknown weights and attributes' weights. An interval-valued generalized orthogonal fuzzy group decision-making method is proposed based on the Yager operator and CRITIC-WASPAS method with unknown weights. The method integrates Yager operator, CRITIC, WASPAS, and interval value generalized orthogonal fuzzy group. Its merits lie in allowing decision-makers greater freedom, avoiding bias due to decision-makers' weight, and yielding accurate evaluation. The research includes: expanding the interval value generalized distance measurement method for comparison and application of similarity measurement and decision-making methods; developing a new scoring function for comparing the size of interval value generalized orthogonal fuzzy numbers,and further existing researches. The proposed interval-valued Yager weighted average operator (IVq-ROFYWA) and Yager weighted geometric average operator (IVq-ROFYWG) are used for information aggregation. The CRITIC-WASPAS combines the advantages of CRITIC and WASPAS, which not only work in the single decision but also serve as the basis of the group decision. The in-depth study of the decision-maker's weight matrix overcomes the shortcomings of taking the decision as a whole, and weighs the decision-maker's information aggregation. Finally, the group decision algorithm is used for hypertension risk management. The results are consistent with decision-makers' opinions. Practice and case analysis have proved the effectiveness of the method proposed in this paper. At the same time, it is compared with other operators and decision-making methods, which proves the method effective and feasible.


Have I done enough planning or should I plan more?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

People's decisions about how to allocate their limited computational resources are essential to human intelligence. An important component of this metacognitive ability is deciding whether to continue thinking about what to do and move on to the next decision. Here, we show that people acquire this ability through learning and reverse-engineer the underlying learning mechanisms. Using a process-tracing paradigm that externalises human planning, we find that people quickly adapt how much planning they perform to the cost and benefit of planning. To discover the underlying metacognitive learning mechanisms we augmented a set of reinforcement learning models with metacognitive features and performed Bayesian model selection. Our results suggest that the metacognitive ability to adjust the amount of planning might be learned through a policy-gradient mechanism that is guided by metacognitive pseudo-rewards that communicate the value of planning.


3 Main Approaches to Machine Learning Models - KDnuggets

#artificialintelligence

In September 2018, I published a blog about my forthcoming book on The Mathematical Foundations of Data Science. The central question we address is: How can we bridge the gap between mathematics needed for Artificial Intelligence (Deep Learning and Machine learning) with that taught in high schools (up to ages 17/18)? In this post, we present a chapter from this book called "A Taxonomy of Machine Learning Models." The book is now available for an early bird discount released as chapters. If you are interested in getting early discounted copies, please contact ajit.jaokar at feynlabs.ai.


Matrix Completion with Hierarchical Graph Side Information

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider a matrix completion problem that exploits social or item similarity graphs as side information. We develop a universal, parameter-free, and computationally efficient algorithm that starts with hierarchical graph clustering and then iteratively refines estimates both on graph clustering and matrix ratings. Under a hierarchical stochastic block model that well respects practically-relevant social graphs and a low-rank rating matrix model (to be detailed), we demonstrate that our algorithm achieves the information-theoretic limit on the number of observed matrix entries (i.e., optimal sample complexity) that is derived by maximum likelihood estimation together with a lower-bound impossibility result. One consequence of this result is that exploiting the hierarchical structure of social graphs yields a substantial gain in sample complexity relative to the one that simply identifies different groups without resorting to the relational structure across them. We conduct extensive experiments both on synthetic and real-world datasets to corroborate our theoretical results as well as to demonstrate significant performance improvements over other matrix completion algorithms that leverage graph side information.