We study the optimal sample complexity of learning a Gaussian directed acyclic graph (DAG) from observational data. Our main result establishes the minimax optimal sample complexity for learning the structure of a linear Gaussian DAG model with equal variances to be $n\asymp q\log(d/q)$, where $q$ is the maximum number of parents and $d$ is the number of nodes. We further make comparisons with the classical problem of learning (undirected) Gaussian graphical models, showing that under the equal variance assumption, these two problems share the same optimal sample complexity. In other words, at least for Gaussian models with equal error variances, learning a directed graphical model is not more difficult than learning an undirected graphical model. Our results also extend to more general identification assumptions as well as subgaussian errors.

A new generation of increasingly autonomous and self-learning cyber-physical systems (CPS) is being developed for control applications in the real world. These systems are AI-based in that they leverage techniques from the field of Artificial intelligence (AI) to flexibly cope with imprecision, inconsistency, incompleteness, to have an inherent ability to learn from experience, and to adapt according to changing and even unforeseen situations. This extra flexibility of AI systems makes it harder to predict their behavior. Moreover, AI systems usually are safety-critical in that they may be causing real harm in (and to) the real world. Consequently, the central question regarding the development of such systems is how to handle or even overcome this basic dichotomy between unpredictable and safe behavior of AI systems. In other words, how can we best construct systems that exploit AI techniques, without incurring the frailties of "AI-like" behavior?

Interval-valued information systems are generalized models of single-valued information systems. By rough set approach, interval-valued information systems have been extensively studied. Authors could establish many binary relations from the same interval-valued information system. In this paper, we do some researches on comparing these binary relations so as to provide numerical scales for choosing suitable relations in dealing with interval-valued information systems. Firstly, based on similarity degrees, we compare the most common three binary relations induced from the same interval-valued information system. Secondly, we propose the concepts of transitive degree and cluster degree, and investigate their properties. Finally, we provide some methods to compare binary relations by means of the transitive degree and the cluster degree. Furthermore, we use these methods to analyze the most common three relations induced from Face Recognition Dataset, and obtain that $RF_{B} ^{\lambda}$ is a good choice when we deal with an interval-valued information system by means of rough set approach.

We study the problem of learning the preferences of drivers and planners in the context of last mile delivery. Given a data set containing historical decisions and delivery locations, the goal is to capture the implicit preferences of the decision-makers. We consider two ways to use the historical data: one is through a probability estimation method that learns transition probabilities between stops (or zones). This is a fast and accurate method, recently studied in a VRP setting. Furthermore, we explore the use of machine learning to infer how to best balance multiple objectives such as distance, probability and penalties. Specifically, we cast the learning problem as a structured output prediction problem, where training is done by repeatedly calling the TSP solver. Another important aspect we consider is that for last-mile delivery, every address is a potential client and hence the data is very sparse. Hence, we propose a two-stage approach that first learns preferences at the zone level in order to compute a zone routing; after which a penalty-based TSP computes the stop routing. Results show that the zone transition probability estimation performs well, and that the structured output prediction learning can improve the results further. We hence showcase a successful combination of both probability estimation and machine learning, all the while using standard TSP solvers, both during learning and to compute the final solution; this means the methodology is applicable to other, real-life, TSP variants, or proprietary solvers.

As the costs of sensors and associated IT infrastructure decreases - as exemplified by the Internet of Things - increasing volumes of observational data are becoming available for use by environmental scientists. However, as the number of available observation sites increases, so too does the opportunity for data quality issues to emerge, particularly given that many of these sensors do not have the benefit of official maintenance teams. To realise the value of crowd sourced 'Internet of Things' type observations for environmental modelling, we require approaches that can automate the detection of outliers during the data modelling process so that they do not contaminate the true distribution of the phenomena of interest. To this end, here we present a Bayesian deep learning approach for spatio-temporal modelling of environmental variables with automatic outlier detection. Our approach implements a Gaussian-uniform mixture density network whose dual purposes - modelling the phenomenon of interest, and learning to classify and ignore outliers - are achieved simultaneously, each by specifically designed branches of our neural network. For our example application, we use the Met Office's Weather Observation Website data, an archive of observations from around 1900 privately run and unofficial weather stations across the British Isles. Using data on surface air temperature, we demonstrate how our deep mixture model approach enables the modelling of a highly skilled spatio-temporal temperature distribution without contamination from spurious observations. We hope that adoption of our approach will help unlock the potential of incorporating a wider range of observation sources, including from crowd sourcing, into future environmental models.

The hierarchical and recursive expressive capability of rooted trees is applicable to represent statistical models in various areas, such as data compression, image processing, and machine learning. On the other hand, such hierarchical expressive capability causes a problem in tree selection to avoid overfitting. One unified approach to solve this is a Bayesian approach, on which the rooted tree is regarded as a random variable and a direct loss function can be assumed on the selected model or the predicted value for a new data point. However, all the previous studies on this approach are based on the probability distribution on full trees, to the best of our knowledge. In this paper, we propose a generalized probability distribution for any rooted trees in which only the maximum number of child nodes and the maximum depth are fixed. Furthermore, we derive recursive methods to evaluate the characteristics of the probability distribution without any approximations.

While dropout is known to be a successful regularization technique, insights into the mechanisms that lead to this success are still lacking. We introduce the concept of weight expansion, an increase in the signed volume of a parallelotope spanned by the column or row vectors of the weight covariance matrix, and show that weight expansion is an effective means of increasing the generalization in a PAC-Bayesian setting. We provide a theoretical argument that dropout leads to weight expansion and extensive empirical support for the correlation between dropout and weight expansion. To support our hypothesis that weight expansion can be regarded as an indicator of the enhanced generalization capability endowed by dropout, and not just as a mere by-product, we have studied other methods that achieve weight expansion (resp. This suggests that dropout is an attractive regularizer, because it is a computationally cheap method for obtaining weight expansion. This insight justifies the role of dropout as a regularizer, while paving the way for identifying regularizers that promise improved generalization through weight expansion. Research on why dropout is so effective in improving the generalization ability of neural networks has been intensive. Many intriguing phenomena induced by dropout have also been studied in this research (Gao et al., 2019; Lengerich et al., 2020; Wei et al., 2020).

Causal discovery for purely observational, categorical data is a long-standing challenging problem. Unlike continuous data, the vast majority of existing methods for categorical data focus on inferring the Markov equivalence class only, which leaves the direction of some causal relationships undetermined. This paper proposes an identifiable ordinal causal discovery method that exploits the ordinal information contained in many real-world applications to uniquely identify the causal structure. The proposed method is applicable beyond ordinal data via data discretization. Through real-world and synthetic experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed ordinal causal discovery method combined with simple score-and-search algorithms has favorable and robust performance compared to state-of-the-art alternative methods in both ordinal categorical and non-categorical data. An accompanied R package OCD is freely available at https://web.stat.tamu.edu/

MIT press provides another excellent book in creative commons. I plan to buy it and I recommend you do. This book provides a broad introduction to algorithms for decision making under uncertainty. An agent is an entity that acts based on observations of its environment. The interaction between the agent and the environment follows an observe-act cycle or loop.

When it comes to probability theory we all would have heard of joint distribution, marginal distribution, independence etc. In this article I will focus my attention onto independence specially conditional independence. In others words if the happening of event A doesn't affect the probability of event B happening, both events are said to be independent. From the view of information theory it can be interpreted as: if knowing A doesn't provide any additional information about B, then A and B are said to be independent. These are the different interpretations for the concept of independence.