In this paper we address the task of extracting risk events and probabilities from free text, focusing in particular on the biomedical domain. While our initial motivation is to enable the determination of the parameters of a Bayesian belief network, our approach is not specific to that use case. We are the first to investigate this task as a sequence tagging problem where we label spans of text as events A or B that are then used to construct probability statements of the form P(A B) x. We show that our approach significantly outperforms an entity extraction baseline on a new annotated medical risk event corpus. We also explore semi-supervised methods that lead to modest improvement, encouraging further work in this direction.

Many people may benefit from assistive robots that understand their users' intentions and aid them with the execution of these intentions in a safe and intuitive way through shared control. In the past, our research group has worked on semi-autonomous robotic wheelchairs transporting people with mobility challenges. Experimental results with our user-adaptive Bayesian approach for both intention estimation and shared human-machine decision-making under uncertainty have shown that in situations where the driver changes his or her intention, the assistive behavior by the robot may under certain conditions be counter-intuitive as it continues to take actions that are in line with the previous user intention, and this for too long a period of time. To remedy this, this paper proposes an approach to detect such changes in user plans in order to make the robot's assistive behavior more reactive and thus more intuitive. The approach adopts a test that checks the consistency of the posterior distribution over user intentions with the given steering signals.

The problem of optimal planning under uncertainty in collaborative multi-agent domains is known to be deeply intractable but still demands a solution. This thesis will explore principled approximation methods that yield tractable approaches to planning for AI assistants, which allow them to understand the intentions of humans and help them achieve their goals. AI assistants are ubiquitous in video games, mak- ing them attractive domains for applying these planning techniques. However, games are also challenging domains, typically having very large state spaces and long planning horizons. The approaches in this thesis will leverage recent advances in Monte-Carlo search, approximation of stochastic dynamics by deterministic dynamics, and hierarchical action representation, to handle domains that are too complex for existing state of the art planners. These planning techniques will be demonstrated across a range of video game domains.

Neural networks have been employed to learn, generalize, and generate musical pieces with a constrained notion of creativity. Yet, these computational models typically suffer from an inability to characterize and reproduce long-term dependencies indicative of musical structure. Hierarchical and deep learning models propose to remedy this deficiency, but remain to be adequately proven. We describe and examine a novel dynamic bayesian network model with the goal of learning and reproducing longer-term formal musical structures. Incorporating a computational model of intrinsic motivation and novelty, this hierarchical probabilistic model is able to generate pastiches based on exemplars.

Smart decision making at the tactical level is important for Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents to perform well in the domain of real-time strategy (RTS) games. Winning battles is crucial in RTS games, and while humans can decide when and how to attack based on their experience, it is challenging for AI agents to estimate combat outcomes accurately. A few existing models address this problem in the game of StarCraft but present many restrictions, such as not modeling injured units, supporting only a small number of unit types, or being able to predict the winner of a fight but not the remaining army. Prediction using simulations is a popular method, but generally slow and requires extensive coding to model the game engine accurately. This paper introduces a model based on Lanchester's attrition laws which addresses the mentioned limitations while being faster than running simulations. Unit strength values are learned using maximum likelihood estimation from past recorded battles. We present experiments that use a StarCraft simulator for generating battles for both training and testing, and show that the model is capable of making accurate predictions. Furthermore, we implemented our method in a StarCraft bot that uses either this or traditional simulations to decide when to attack or to retreat. We present tournament results (against top bots from 2014 AIIDE competition) comparing the performances of the two versions, and show increased winning percentages for our method.

PGMax is an open-source Python package for easy specification of discrete Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) as factor graphs, and automatic derivation of efficient and scalable loopy belief propagation (LBP) implementation in JAX. It supports general factor graphs, and can effectively leverage modern accelerators like GPUs for inference. Compared with existing alternatives, PGMax obtains higher-quality inference results with orders-of-magnitude inference speedups. PGMax additionally interacts seamlessly with the rapidly growing JAX ecosystem, opening up exciting new possibilities. Our source code, examples and documentation are available at https://github.com/vicariousinc/PGMax.

Kernel-based models such as kernel ridge regression and Gaussian processes are ubiquitous in machine learning applications for regression and optimization. It is well known that a serious downside for kernel-based models is the high computational cost; given a dataset of $n$ samples, the cost grows as $\mathcal{O}(n^3)$. Existing sparse approximation methods can yield a significant reduction in the computational cost, effectively reducing the real world cost down to as low as $\mathcal{O}(n)$ in certain cases. Despite this remarkable empirical success, significant gaps remain in the existing results for the analytical confidence bounds on the error due to approximation. In this work, we provide novel confidence intervals for the Nystr\"om method and the sparse variational Gaussian processes approximation method. Our confidence intervals lead to improved error bounds in both regression and optimization. We establish these confidence intervals using novel interpretations of the approximate (surrogate) posterior variance of the models.

Bayesian methods hold significant promise for improving the uncertainty quantification ability and robustness of deep neural network models. Recent research has seen the investigation of a number of approximate Bayesian inference methods for deep neural networks, building on both the variational Bayesian and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) frameworks. A fundamental issue with MCMC methods is that the improvements they enable are obtained at the expense of increased computation time and model storage costs. In this paper, we investigate the potential of sparse network structures to flexibly trade-off model storage costs and inference run time against predictive performance and uncertainty quantification ability. We use stochastic gradient MCMC methods as the core Bayesian inference method and consider a variety of approaches for selecting sparse network structures. Surprisingly, our results show that certain classes of randomly selected substructures can perform as well as substructures derived from state-of-the-art iterative pruning methods while drastically reducing model training times.

Multi-model ensemble analysis integrates information from multiple climate models into a unified projection. However, existing integration approaches based on model averaging can dilute fine-scale spatial information and incur bias from rescaling low-resolution climate models. We propose a statistical approach, called NN-GPR, using Gaussian process regression (GPR) with an infinitely wide deep neural network based covariance function. NN-GPR requires no assumptions about the relationships between models, no interpolation to a common grid, no stationarity assumptions, and automatically downscales as part of its prediction algorithm. Model experiments show that NN-GPR can be highly skillful at surface temperature and precipitation forecasting by preserving geospatial signals at multiple scales and capturing inter-annual variability. Our projections particularly show improved accuracy and uncertainty quantification skill in regions of high variability, which allows us to cheaply assess tail behavior at a 0.44$^\circ$/50 km spatial resolution without a regional climate model (RCM). Evaluations on reanalysis data and SSP245 forced climate models show that NN-GPR produces similar, overall climatologies to the model ensemble while better capturing fine scale spatial patterns. Finally, we compare NN-GPR's regional predictions against two RCMs and show that NN-GPR can rival the performance of RCMs using only global model data as input.

We propose a simple and scalable approach to causal representation learning for multitask learning. Our approach requires minimal modification to existing ML systems, and improves robustness to prior probability shift. The improvement comes from mitigating unobserved confounders that cause the targets, but not the input. We refer to them as target-causing confounders. These confounders induce spurious dependencies between the input and targets. This poses a problem for the conventional approach to multitask learning, due to its assumption that the targets are conditionally independent given the input. Our proposed approach takes into account the dependency between the targets in order to alleviate target-causing confounding. All that is required in addition to usual practice is to estimate the joint distribution of the targets to switch from discriminative to generative classification, and to predict all targets jointly. Our results on the Attributes of People and Taskonomy datasets reflect the conceptual improvement in robustness to prior probability shift.