This paper presents a novel method for controlling teams of unmanned aerial vehicles using Stochastic Optimal Control (SOC) theory. The approach consists of a centralized high-level planner that computes optimal state trajectories as velocity sequences, and a platform-specific low-level controller which ensures that these velocity sequences are met. The planning task is expressed as a centralized path-integral control problem, for which optimal control computation corresponds to a probabilistic inference problem that can be solved by efficient sampling methods. Through simulation we show that our SOC approach (a) has significant benefits compared to deterministic control and other SOC methods in multimodal problems with noise-dependent optimal solutions, (b) is capable of controlling a large number of platforms in real-time, and (c) yields collective emergent behaviour in the form of flight formations. Finally, we show that our approach works for real platforms, by controlling a team of three quadrotors in outdoor conditions.

We consider the problem of generating optimal stochastic policies for Constrained Stochastic Shortest Path problems, which are a natural model for planning under uncertainty for resource-bounded agents with multiple competing objectives. While unconstrained SSPs enjoy a multitude of efficient heuristic search solution methods with the ability to focus on promising areas reachable from the initial state, the state of the art for constrained SSPs revolves around linear and dynamic programming algorithms which explore the entire state space. In this paper, we present i-dual, which, to the best of our knowledge, is the first heuristic search algorithm for constrained SSPs. To concisely represent constraints and efficiently decide their violation, i-dual operates in the space of dual variables describing the policy occupation measures. It does so while retaining the ability to use standard value function heuristics computed by well-known methods. Our experiments on a suite of PPDDL problems augmented with constraints show that these features enable i-dual to achieve up to two orders of magnitude improvement in run-time and memory over linear programming algorithms.

Search-And-Tracking (SaT) is the problem of searching for a mobile target and tracking it once it is found. Since SaT platforms face many sources of uncertainty and operational constraints, progress in the field has been restricted to simple and unrealistic scenarios. In this paper, we propose a new hybrid approach to SaT that allows us to successfully address large-scale and complex SaT missions. The probabilistic structure of SaT is compiled into a deterministic planning model and Bayesian inference is directly incorporated in the planning mechanism. Thanks to this tight integration between automated planning and probabilistic reasoning, we are able to exploit the power of both approaches. Planning provides the tools to efficiently explore big search spaces, while Bayesian inference, by readily combining prior knowledge with observable data, allows the planner to make more informed and effective decisions. We offer experimental evidence of the potential of our approach.

Robots acting in human-scale environments must plan under uncertainty in large state–action spaces and face constantly changing reward functions as requirements and goals change. Planning under uncertainty in large state–action spaces requires hierarchical abstraction for efficient computation. We introduce a new hierarchical planning framework called Abstract Markov Decision Processes (AMDPs) that can plan in a fraction of the time needed for complex decision making in ordinary MDPs. AMDPs provide abstract states, actions, and transition dynamics in multiple layers above a base-level "flat" MDP. AMDPs decompose problems into a series of subtasks with both local reward and local transition functions used to create policies for subtasks. The resulting hierarchical planning method is independently optimal at each level of abstraction, and is recursively optimal when the local reward and transition functions are correct. We present empirical results showing significantly improved planning speed, while maintaining solution quality, in the Taxi domain and in a mobile-manipulation robotics problem. Furthermore, our approach allows specification of a decision-making model for a mobile-manipulation problem on a Turtlebot, spanning from low-level control actions operating on continuous variables all the way up through high-level object manipulation tasks.

We focus on the problem of modeling deterministic equations over continuous variables in discrete Bayesian networks. This is typically achieved by a discretization of both input and output variables and a degenerate quantification of the corresponding conditional probability tables. This approach, based on classical probabilities, cannot properly model the information loss induced by the discretization. We show that a reliable modeling of such epistemic uncertainty can be instead achieved by credal sets, i.e., convex sets of probability mass functions. This transforms the original Bayesian network in a credal network, possibly returning interval-valued inferences, that are robust with respect to the information loss induced by the discretisation. Algorithmic strategies for an optimal choice of the discretisation bins are also provided.

Conditional independence structures describe independencies of one set of variables from another set of variables conditioned upon a third set of variables. These structures are invaluable means for compact representations of knowledge because independencies can be exploited for useful factorizations. Conditional independence structures appear in different disguise in various areas of knowledge representation, be it the conditional independence of sets of random variables in probabilistic graphical models such as Bayesian networks or as conditional functions related to belief revision, or as in- dependencies induced by (embedded) multivalued dependencies in data bases. This paper investigates conditional independencies for Boolean functions using Fourier analysis. We define three notions of independence based on the notion of influence of a variable on a function and draw connections to multivalued dependencies.

In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach for finite mixture models based on three-parameter bivariate Beta distributions. The estimation of the parameters is based on the Monte Carlo simulation technique of Gibbs sampling mixed with a Metropolis-Hastings step. The performance of our Bayesian algorithm is verified by several synthetic datasets and in the end, the feasibility of the proposed method is demonstrated by experimenting on some real datasets in which, the results are compared with those obtained by implementing the same approach using Gaussian mixture model.

Bayesian networks (BNs) encode conditional independence to avoid combinatorial explosion on the number of variables, but are subject to exponential growth of space and inference time on the number of causes per effect variable. Among space-efficient local models, we focus on the Non-Impeding Noisy-AND Tree (NIN-AND Tree or NAT) models due to their multiple merits, and on NAT-modeled BNs where each multi-parent variable family may be encoded as a NAT-model. Although BN inference is generally exponential on treewidth, inference is tractable with NAT-modeled BNs of high treewidth and low density. In this work, we present the first study to learn NAT-modeled BNs from data. We apply the MDL principle to learning NAT-modeled BNs by developing a corresponding scoring function, and we couple it with heuristic structure search.

Modeling high-dimensional multivariate distributions is a computationally challenging task. Bayesian networks have been successfully used to reduce the complexity and simplify the problem with discrete variables. However, it lacks of a general model for continuous variables. In order to overcome this problem, Elidan (2010) proposed the model of copula bayesian networks (CBN) that reparametrizes bayesian networks with conditional copula functions. We propose a new learning algorithm for CBN based on a PC algorithm and a conditional independence test proposed by Bouezmarni, Rombouts, Taamouti (2009).

Bayesian inference is crucial to challenging scenarios that involve complex probabilistic models, which are usually intractable. In this work, we develop an expectation propagation approach to learn finite mixture models of EDCMs. The EDCM (Elkan 2006) is an exponential-family approximation to the widely used Dirichlet Compound Multinomial distribution and has been shown to offer excellent modeling capabilities in the case of sparse count data. Expectation propagation is a deterministic approach that provides accurate approximations to the full posterior and allows to include prior beliefs in the model as opposed to the maximum-likelihood method, which provides point estimates only. We evaluate the efficiency of our framework on several datasets for sentiment analysis and shape recognition.