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 Uncertainty


Functional mixture-of-experts for classification

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We develop a mixtures-of-experts (ME) approach to the multiclass classification where the predictors are univariate functions. It consists of a ME model in which both the gating network and the experts network are constructed upon multinomial logistic activation functions with functional inputs. We perform a regularized maximum likelihood estimation in which the coefficient functions enjoy interpretable sparsity constraints on targeted derivatives. We develop an EM-Lasso like algorithm to compute the regularized MLE and evaluate the proposed approach on simulated and real data.


Neural Noise Shows the Uncertainty of Our Memories

#artificialintelligence

In the moment between reading a phone number and punching it into your phone, you may find that the digits have mysteriously gone astray--even if you've seared the first ones into your memory, the last ones may still blur unaccountably. Was the 6 before the 8 or after it? Maintaining such scraps of information long enough to act on them draws on an ability called visual working memory. For years, scientists have debated whether working memory has space for only a few items at a time or if it just has limited room for detail: Perhaps our mind's capacity is spread across either a few crystal-clear recollections or a multitude of more dubious fragments. Original story reprinted with permission from Quanta Magazine, an editorially independent publication of the Simons Foundation whose mission is to enhance public understanding of science by covering research developments and trends in mathematics and the physical and life sciences.


Enhanced Nearest Neighbor Classification for Crowdsourcing

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In machine learning, crowdsourcing is an economical way to label a large amount of data. However, the noise in the produced labels may deteriorate the accuracy of any classification method applied to the labelled data. We propose an enhanced nearest neighbor classifier (ENN) to overcome this issue. Two algorithms are developed to estimate the worker quality (which is often unknown in practice): one is to construct the estimate based on the denoised worker labels by applying the $k$NN classifier to the expert data; the other is an iterative algorithm that works even without access to the expert data. Other than strong numerical evidence, our proposed methods are proven to achieve the same regret as its oracle version based on high-quality expert data. As a technical by-product, a lower bound on the sample size assigned to each worker to reach the optimal convergence rate of regret is derived.


Bayesian Statistics Overview and your first Bayesian Linear Regression Model

#artificialintelligence

Frequentist and Bayesian are two different versions of statistics. Frequentist is a more classical version, which, as the name suggests, rely on the long run frequency of events (data points) to calculate the variable of interest. Bayesian on the other hand, can also work without having a large number of events (in fact, it could work even with one data point!). The cardinal difference between the two is that: frequentist will give you a point estimate, whereas Bayesian will give you a distribution. Having a point estimate means that -- "we are certain that this is the output for this variable of interest". Whereas, having a distribution can be interpreted as -- "we have some belief that the mean of the distribution is the good estimate for this variable of interest, but there is uncertainty too, in the form of standard deviation".


Glossary of Data Science Terminology: A Beginner's Guide

#artificialintelligence

Increased Internet speeds and advanced technology means data science is high in demand. According to Glassdoor, a career as a data scientist is the third-best job in the United States for 2022. This increase in popularity means that all IT professionals, and aspiring professionals, should be familiar with our list of data science terms. For those looking to become a data scientist, in-depth knowledge of both basic and advanced data science terminology is vital. Our glossary of data science terminology will act as a data science terminology cheat sheet of basic and advanced terms as you start your journey as a data scientist.


Bayesian autoencoders with uncertainty quantification: Towards trustworthy anomaly detection

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Despite numerous studies of deep autoencoders (AEs) for unsupervised anomaly detection, AEs still lack a way to express uncertainty in their predictions, crucial for ensuring safe and trustworthy machine learning systems in high-stake applications. Therefore, in this work, the formulation of Bayesian autoencoders (BAEs) is adopted to quantify the total anomaly uncertainty, comprising epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. To evaluate the quality of uncertainty, we consider the task of classifying anomalies with the additional option of rejecting predictions of high uncertainty. In addition, we use the accuracy-rejection curve and propose the weighted average accuracy as a performance metric. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the BAE and total anomaly uncertainty on a set of benchmark datasets and two real datasets for manufacturing: one for condition monitoring, the other for quality inspection.


Do autoencoders need a bottleneck for anomaly detection?

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A common belief in designing deep autoencoders (AEs), a type of unsupervised neural network, is that a bottleneck is required to prevent learning the identity function. Learning the identity function renders the AEs useless for anomaly detection. In this work, we challenge this limiting belief and investigate the value of non-bottlenecked AEs. The bottleneck can be removed in two ways: (1) overparameterising the latent layer, and (2) introducing skip connections. However, limited works have reported on the use of one of the ways. For the first time, we carry out extensive experiments covering various combinations of bottleneck removal schemes, types of AEs and datasets. In addition, we propose the infinitely-wide AEs as an extreme example of non-bottlenecked AEs. Their improvement over the baseline implies learning the identity function is not trivial as previously assumed. Moreover, we find that non-bottlenecked architectures (highest AUROC=0.857) can outperform their bottlenecked counterparts (highest AUROC=0.696) on the popular task of CIFAR (inliers) vs SVHN (anomalies), among other tasks, shedding light on the potential of developing non-bottlenecked AEs for improving anomaly detection.


High-Dimensional Sparse Bayesian Learning without Covariance Matrices

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) is a powerful framework for tackling the sparse coding problem. However, the most popular inference algorithms for SBL become too expensive for high-dimensional settings, due to the need to store and compute a large covariance matrix. We introduce a new inference scheme that avoids explicit construction of the covariance matrix by solving multiple linear systems in parallel to obtain the posterior moments for SBL. Our approach couples a little-known diagonal estimation result from numerical linear algebra with the conjugate gradient algorithm. On several simulations, our method scales better than existing approaches in computation time and memory, especially for structured dictionaries capable of fast matrix-vector multiplication.


A general framework for adaptive two-index fusion attribute weighted naive Bayes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Naive Bayes(NB) is one of the essential algorithms in data mining. However, it is rarely used in reality because of the attribute independent assumption. Researchers have proposed many improved NB methods to alleviate this assumption. Among these methods, due to high efficiency and easy implementation, the filter attribute weighted NB methods receive great attentions. However, there still exists several challenges, such as the poor representation ability for single index and the fusion problem of two indexes. To overcome above challenges, we propose a general framework for Adaptive Two-index Fusion attribute weighted NB(ATFNB). Two types of data description category are used to represent the correlation between classes and attributes, intercorrelation between attributes and attributes, respectively. ATFNB can select any one index from each category. Then, we introduce a switching factor \{beta} to fuse two indexes, which can adaptively adjust the optimal ratio of the two index on various datasets. And a quick algorithm is proposed to infer the optimal interval of switching factor \{beta}. Finally, the weight of each attribute is calculated using the optimal value \{beta} and is integrated into NB classifier to improve the accuracy. The experimental results on 50 benchmark datasets and a Flavia dataset show that ATFNB outperforms the basic NB and state-of-the-art filter weighted NB models. In addition, the ATFNB framework can improve the existing two-index NB model by introducing the adaptive switching factor \{beta}. Auxiliary experimental results demonstrate the improved model significantly increases the accuracy compared to the original model without the adaptive switching factor \{beta}.


An Information-theoretical Approach to Semi-supervised Learning under Covariate-shift

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A common assumption in semi-supervised learning is that the labeled, unlabeled, and test data are drawn from the same distribution. However, this assumption is not satisfied in many applications. In many scenarios, the data is collected sequentially (e.g., healthcare) and the distribution of the data may change over time often exhibiting so-called covariate shifts. In this paper, we propose an approach for semi-supervised learning algorithms that is capable of addressing this issue. Our framework also recovers some popular methods, including entropy minimization and pseudo-labeling. We provide new information-theoretical based generalization error upper bounds inspired by our novel framework. Our bounds are applicable to both general semi-supervised learning and the covariate-shift scenario. Finally, we show numerically that our method outperforms previous approaches proposed for semi-supervised learning under the covariate shift.