Multinomial probit (mnp) models are fundamental and widely-applied regression models for categorical data. Fasano and Durante (2022) proved that the class of unified skew-normal distributions is conjugate to several mnp sampling models. This allows to develop Monte Carlo samplers and accurate variational methods to perform Bayesian inference. In this paper, we adapt the abovementioned results for a popular special case: the discrete-choice mnp model under zero mean and independent Gaussian priors. This allows to obtain simplified expressions for the parameters of the posterior distribution and an alternative derivation for the variational algorithm that gives a novel understanding of the fundamental results in Fasano and Durante (2022) as well as computational advantages in our special settings.

We study lifelong reinforcement learning (RL) in a regret minimization setting of linear contextual Markov decision process (MDP), where the agent needs to learn a multi-task policy while solving a streaming sequence of tasks. We propose an algorithm, called UCB Lifelong Value Distillation (UCBlvd), that provably achieves sublinear regret for any sequence of tasks, which may be adaptively chosen based on the agent's past behaviors. Remarkably, our algorithm uses only sublinear number of planning calls, which means that the agent eventually learns a policy that is near optimal for multiple tasks (seen or unseen) without the need of deliberate planning. A key to this property is a new structural assumption that enables computation sharing across tasks during exploration. Specifically, for $K$ task episodes of horizon $H$, our algorithm has a regret bound $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{(d^3+d^\prime d)H^4K})$ based on $\mathcal{O}(dH\log(K))$ number of planning calls, where $d$ and $d^\prime$ are the feature dimensions of the dynamics and rewards, respectively. This theoretical guarantee implies that our algorithm can enable a lifelong learning agent to accumulate experiences and learn to rapidly solve new tasks.

Graphical models are useful tools for describing structured high-dimensional probability distributions. Development of efficient algorithms for generating unbiased and independent samples from graphical models remains an active research topic. Sampling from graphical models that describe the statistics of discrete variables is a particularly challenging problem, which is intractable in the presence of high dimensions. In this work, we provide the first method that allows one to provably generate unbiased and independent samples from general discrete factor models with a quantum circuit. Our method is compatible with multi-body interactions and its success probability does not depend on the number of variables. To this end, we identify a novel embedding of the graphical model into unitary operators and provide rigorous guarantees on the resulting quantum state. Moreover, we prove a unitary Hammersley-Clifford theorem -- showing that our quantum embedding factorizes over the cliques of the underlying conditional independence structure. Importantly, the quantum embedding allows for maximum likelihood learning as well as maximum a posteriori state approximation via state-of-the-art hybrid quantum-classical methods. Finally, the proposed quantum method can be implemented on current quantum processors. Experiments with quantum simulation as well as actual quantum hardware show that our method can carry out sampling and parameter learning on quantum computers.

Subsampling methods aim to select a subsample as a surrogate for the observed sample. Such methods have been used pervasively in large-scale data analytics, active learning, and privacy-preserving analysis in recent decades. Instead of model-based methods, in this paper, we study model-free subsampling methods, which aim to identify a subsample that is not confined by model assumptions. Existing model-free subsampling methods are usually built upon clustering techniques or kernel tricks. Most of these methods suffer from either a large computational burden or a theoretical weakness. In particular, the theoretical weakness is that the empirical distribution of the selected subsample may not necessarily converge to the population distribution. Such computational and theoretical limitations hinder the broad applicability of model-free subsampling methods in practice. We propose a novel model-free subsampling method by utilizing optimal transport techniques. Moreover, we develop an efficient subsampling algorithm that is adaptive to the unknown probability density function. Theoretically, we show the selected subsample can be used for efficient density estimation by deriving the convergence rate for the proposed subsample kernel density estimator. We also provide the optimal bandwidth for the proposed estimator. Numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the performance of the proposed method is superior.

Reward-biased maximum likelihood estimation (RBMLE) is a classic principle in the adaptive control literature for tackling explore-exploit trade-offs. This paper studies the stochastic contextual bandit problem with general bounded reward functions and proposes NeuralRBMLE, which adapts the RBMLE principle by adding a bias term to the log-likelihood to enforce exploration. NeuralRBMLE leverages the representation power of neural networks and directly encodes exploratory behavior in the parameter space, without constructing confidence intervals of the estimated rewards. We propose two variants of NeuralRBMLE algorithms: The first variant directly obtains the RBMLE estimator by gradient ascent, and the second variant simplifies RBMLE to a simple index policy through an approximation. We show that both algorithms achieve $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ regret. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that the NeuralRBMLE algorithms achieve comparable or better empirical regrets than the state-of-the-art methods on real-world datasets with non-linear reward functions.

Sparse modeling for signal processing and machine learning has been at the focus of scientific research for over two decades. Among others, supervised sparsity-aware learning comprises two major paths paved by: a) discriminative methods and b) generative methods. The latter, more widely known as Bayesian methods, enable uncertainty evaluation w.r.t. the performed predictions. Furthermore, they can better exploit related prior information and naturally introduce robustness into the model, due to their unique capacity to marginalize out uncertainties related to the parameter estimates. Moreover, hyper-parameters associated with the adopted priors can be learnt via the training data. To implement sparsity-aware learning, the crucial point lies in the choice of the function regularizer for discriminative methods and the choice of the prior distribution for Bayesian learning. Over the last decade or so, due to the intense research on deep learning, emphasis has been put on discriminative techniques. However, a come back of Bayesian methods is taking place that sheds new light on the design of deep neural networks, which also establish firm links with Bayesian models and inspire new paths for unsupervised learning, such as Bayesian tensor decomposition. The goal of this article is two-fold. First, to review, in a unified way, some recent advances in incorporating sparsity-promoting priors into three highly popular data modeling tools, namely deep neural networks, Gaussian processes, and tensor decomposition. Second, to review their associated inference techniques from different aspects, including: evidence maximization via optimization and variational inference methods. Challenges such as small data dilemma, automatic model structure search, and natural prediction uncertainty evaluation are also discussed. Typical signal processing and machine learning tasks are demonstrated.

This paper addresses a data integration problem: given several mutually consistent datasets each of which measures a subset of the variables of interest, how can one construct a probabilistic model that fits the data and gives reasonable answers to questions which are under-determined by the data? Here we show how to obtain a Bayesian network model which represents the unique probability function that agrees with the probability distributions measured by the datasets and otherwise has maximum entropy. We provide a general algorithm, OBN-cDS, which offers substantial efficiency savings over the standard brute-force approach to determining the maximum entropy probability function. Furthermore, we develop modifications to the general algorithm which enable further efficiency savings but which are only applicable in particular situations. We show that there are circumstances in which one can obtain the model (i) directly from the data; (ii) by solving algebraic problems; and (iii) by solving relatively simple independent optimisation problems.

Last week, I saw a nice presentation on Probabilistic Programming from a student in Iran (link below). I am interested in this subject for my teaching at the #universityofoxford. In this post, I provide a brief introduction to Probabilistic programming. Probabilistic programming is a programming paradigm designed to implement and solve probabilistic models. They unite probabilistic modeling and traditional general-purpose programming.

A wide range of modern artificial intelligence challenges ca n be cast as Reinforcement Learning (RL) problems under partial observability, in which agents learn to make a sequence of decisions despite lacking complete information about the underlying state of system. For example, in robotics the agent has to cope with noisy sensors, occlusions, and unk nown dynamics ( Akkaya et al., 2019), while in imperfect information games the player makes only l ocal observations ( Vinyals et al., 2019; Brown and Sandholm, 2019). Further applications of partially observable RL include autonomous driving ( Levinson et al., 2011), resource allocation ( Bower and Gilbert, 2005), medical diagnostic systems ( Hauskrecht and Fraser, 2000), recommendation ( Li et al., 2010), business management ( De Brito and Van Der Laan, 2009), etc. As such, learning and acting under partial observabi lity has been an important topic in operation research, control, and machine learning. Because of the non-Markovian nature of the observations, le arning and planning in partially observable environments requires an agent to maintain memory and possibly reason about beliefs over the states, all while exploring to collect information about the environment. As such, partial observability can significantly complicate learni ng and planning under uncertainty. While practical RL systems have succeeded in a set of partially obs ervable problems including Poker ( Brown and Sandholm, 2019), Starcraft ( Vinyals et al., 2019) and certain robotic tasks ( Cassandra et al., The author emails are {qinghual, alan.chung,

When starting out with Data Science, there is so much to learn it can become quite overwhelming. This guide will help aspiring data scientists and machine learning engineers gain better knowledge and experience. I will list different types of machine learning algorithms, which can be used with both Python and R. Linear Regression is the simplest Machine learning algorithm that branches off from Supervised Learning. It is primarily used to solve regression problems and make predictions on continuous dependent variables with the knowledge from independent variables. The goal of Linear Regression is to find the line of best fit, which can help predict the output for continuous dependent variables.