Application of interpretable machine learning techniques on medical datasets facilitate early and fast diagnoses, along with getting deeper insight into the data. Furthermore, the transparency of these models increase trust among application domain experts. Medical datasets face common issues such as heterogeneous measurements, imbalanced classes with limited sample size, and missing data, which hinder the straightforward application of machine learning techniques. In this paper we present a family of prototype-based (PB) interpretable models which are capable of handling these issues. The models introduced in this contribution show comparable or superior performance to alternative techniques applicable in such situations. However, unlike ensemble based models, which have to compromise on easy interpretation, the PB models here do not. Moreover we propose a strategy of harnessing the power of ensembles while maintaining the intrinsic interpretability of the PB models, by averaging the model parameter manifolds. All the models were evaluated on a synthetic (publicly available dataset) in addition to detailed analyses of two real-world medical datasets (one publicly available). Results indicated that the models and strategies we introduced addressed the challenges of real-world medical data, while remaining computationally inexpensive and transparent, as well as similar or superior in performance compared to their alternatives.

Instrumental variable (IV) is a powerful approach to inferring the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome of interest from observational data even when there exist latent confounders between the treatment and the outcome. However, existing IV methods require that an IV is selected and justified with domain knowledge. An invalid IV may lead to biased estimates. Hence, discovering a valid IV is critical to the applications of IV methods. In this paper, we study and design a data-driven algorithm to discover valid IVs from data under mild assumptions. We develop the theory based on partial ancestral graphs (PAGs) to support the search for a set of candidate Ancestral IVs (AIVs), and for each possible AIV, the identification of its conditioning set. Based on the theory, we propose a data-driven algorithm to discover a pair of IVs from data. The experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets show that the developed IV discovery algorithm estimates accurate estimates of causal effects in comparison with the state-of-the-art IV based causal effect estimators.

We consider the problem of conditional density estimation, which is a major topic of interest in the fields of statistical and machine learning. Our method, called Marginal Contrastive Discrimination, MCD, reformulates the conditional density function into two factors, the marginal density function of the target variable and a ratio of density functions which can be estimated through binary classification. Like noise-contrastive methods, MCD can leverage state-of-the-art supervised learning techniques to perform conditional density estimation, including neural networks. Our benchmark reveals that our method significantly outperforms in practice existing methods on most density models and regression datasets.

Atmospheric Extreme Events (EEs) cause severe damages to human societies and ecosystems. The frequency and intensity of EEs and other associated events are increasing in the current climate change and global warming risk. The accurate prediction, characterization, and attribution of atmospheric EEs is therefore a key research field, in which many groups are currently working by applying different methodologies and computational tools. Machine Learning (ML) methods have arisen in the last years as powerful techniques to tackle many of the problems related to atmospheric EEs. This paper reviews the ML algorithms applied to the analysis, characterization, prediction, and attribution of the most important atmospheric EEs. A summary of the most used ML techniques in this area, and a comprehensive critical review of literature related to ML in EEs, are provided. A number of examples is discussed and perspectives and outlooks on the field are drawn.

This article was written by Tirthajyoti Sarkar. Thanks to my CS7641 class at Georgia Tech in my MS Analytics program, where I discovered this concept and was inspired to write about it. It is somewhat surprising that among all the high-flying buzzwords of machine learning, we don't hear much about the one phrase which fuses some of the core concepts of statistical learning, information theory, and natural philosophy into a single three-word-combo. Moreover, it is not just an obscure and pedantic phrase meant for machine learning (ML) Ph.Ds and theoreticians. It has a precise and easily accessible meaning for anyone interested to explore, and a practical pay-off for the practitioners of ML and data science.

Multinomial probit (mnp) models are fundamental and widely-applied regression models for categorical data. Fasano and Durante (2022) proved that the class of unified skew-normal distributions is conjugate to several mnp sampling models. This allows to develop Monte Carlo samplers and accurate variational methods to perform Bayesian inference. In this paper, we adapt the abovementioned results for a popular special case: the discrete-choice mnp model under zero mean and independent Gaussian priors. This allows to obtain simplified expressions for the parameters of the posterior distribution and an alternative derivation for the variational algorithm that gives a novel understanding of the fundamental results in Fasano and Durante (2022) as well as computational advantages in our special settings.

We study lifelong reinforcement learning (RL) in a regret minimization setting of linear contextual Markov decision process (MDP), where the agent needs to learn a multi-task policy while solving a streaming sequence of tasks. We propose an algorithm, called UCB Lifelong Value Distillation (UCBlvd), that provably achieves sublinear regret for any sequence of tasks, which may be adaptively chosen based on the agent's past behaviors. Remarkably, our algorithm uses only sublinear number of planning calls, which means that the agent eventually learns a policy that is near optimal for multiple tasks (seen or unseen) without the need of deliberate planning. A key to this property is a new structural assumption that enables computation sharing across tasks during exploration. Specifically, for $K$ task episodes of horizon $H$, our algorithm has a regret bound $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{(d^3+d^\prime d)H^4K})$ based on $\mathcal{O}(dH\log(K))$ number of planning calls, where $d$ and $d^\prime$ are the feature dimensions of the dynamics and rewards, respectively. This theoretical guarantee implies that our algorithm can enable a lifelong learning agent to accumulate experiences and learn to rapidly solve new tasks.

Graphical models are useful tools for describing structured high-dimensional probability distributions. Development of efficient algorithms for generating unbiased and independent samples from graphical models remains an active research topic. Sampling from graphical models that describe the statistics of discrete variables is a particularly challenging problem, which is intractable in the presence of high dimensions. In this work, we provide the first method that allows one to provably generate unbiased and independent samples from general discrete factor models with a quantum circuit. Our method is compatible with multi-body interactions and its success probability does not depend on the number of variables. To this end, we identify a novel embedding of the graphical model into unitary operators and provide rigorous guarantees on the resulting quantum state. Moreover, we prove a unitary Hammersley-Clifford theorem -- showing that our quantum embedding factorizes over the cliques of the underlying conditional independence structure. Importantly, the quantum embedding allows for maximum likelihood learning as well as maximum a posteriori state approximation via state-of-the-art hybrid quantum-classical methods. Finally, the proposed quantum method can be implemented on current quantum processors. Experiments with quantum simulation as well as actual quantum hardware show that our method can carry out sampling and parameter learning on quantum computers.

Subsampling methods aim to select a subsample as a surrogate for the observed sample. Such methods have been used pervasively in large-scale data analytics, active learning, and privacy-preserving analysis in recent decades. Instead of model-based methods, in this paper, we study model-free subsampling methods, which aim to identify a subsample that is not confined by model assumptions. Existing model-free subsampling methods are usually built upon clustering techniques or kernel tricks. Most of these methods suffer from either a large computational burden or a theoretical weakness. In particular, the theoretical weakness is that the empirical distribution of the selected subsample may not necessarily converge to the population distribution. Such computational and theoretical limitations hinder the broad applicability of model-free subsampling methods in practice. We propose a novel model-free subsampling method by utilizing optimal transport techniques. Moreover, we develop an efficient subsampling algorithm that is adaptive to the unknown probability density function. Theoretically, we show the selected subsample can be used for efficient density estimation by deriving the convergence rate for the proposed subsample kernel density estimator. We also provide the optimal bandwidth for the proposed estimator. Numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the performance of the proposed method is superior.

Reward-biased maximum likelihood estimation (RBMLE) is a classic principle in the adaptive control literature for tackling explore-exploit trade-offs. This paper studies the stochastic contextual bandit problem with general bounded reward functions and proposes NeuralRBMLE, which adapts the RBMLE principle by adding a bias term to the log-likelihood to enforce exploration. NeuralRBMLE leverages the representation power of neural networks and directly encodes exploratory behavior in the parameter space, without constructing confidence intervals of the estimated rewards. We propose two variants of NeuralRBMLE algorithms: The first variant directly obtains the RBMLE estimator by gradient ascent, and the second variant simplifies RBMLE to a simple index policy through an approximation. We show that both algorithms achieve $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{T})$ regret. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that the NeuralRBMLE algorithms achieve comparable or better empirical regrets than the state-of-the-art methods on real-world datasets with non-linear reward functions.