Bayes Theorem gives us a way of updating our beliefs in light of new evidence, taking into account the strength of our prior beliefs. Deploying Bayes Theorem, you seek to answer the question: what is the likelihood of my hypothesis in light of new evidence? In this article, we'll talk about three ways that the Bayes Theorem can improve your practice of Data Science: By the end, you'll possess a deep understanding of the foundational concept. Bayes Theorem provides a structure for testing a hypothesis, taking into account the strength of prior assumptions and the new evidence. This process is referred to as Bayesian Updating.

Measuring contributions is a classical problem in cooperative game theory where the Shapley value is the most well-known solution concept. In this paper, we establish the convergence property of the Shapley value in parametric Bayesian learning games where players perform a Bayesian inference using their combined data, and the posterior-prior KL divergence is used as the characteristic function. We show that for any two players, under some regularity conditions, their difference in Shapley value converges in probability to the difference in Shapley value of a limiting game whose characteristic function is proportional to the log-determinant of the joint Fisher information. As an application, we present an online collaborative learning framework that is asymptotically Shapley-fair. Our result enables this to be achieved without any costly computations of posterior-prior KL divergences. Only a consistent estimator of the Fisher information is needed. The effectiveness of our framework is demonstrated with experiments using real-world data.

Supervised dictionary learning (SDL) is a classical machine learning method that simultaneously seeks feature extraction and classification tasks, which are not necessarily a priori aligned objectives. The goal of SDL is to learn a class-discriminative dictionary, which is a set of latent feature vectors that can well-explain both the features as well as labels of observed data. In this paper, we provide a systematic study of SDL, including the theory, algorithm, and applications of SDL. First, we provide a novel framework that `lifts' SDL as a convex problem in a combined factor space and propose a low-rank projected gradient descent algorithm that converges exponentially to the global minimizer of the objective. We also formulate generative models of SDL and provide global estimation guarantees of the true parameters depending on the hyperparameter regime. Second, viewed as a nonconvex constrained optimization problem, we provided an efficient block coordinate descent algorithm for SDL that is guaranteed to find an $\varepsilon$-stationary point of the objective in $O(\varepsilon^{-1}(\log \varepsilon^{-1})^{2})$ iterations. For the corresponding generative model, we establish a novel non-asymptotic local consistency result for constrained and regularized maximum likelihood estimation problems, which may be of independent interest. Third, we apply SDL for imbalanced document classification by supervised topic modeling and also for pneumonia detection from chest X-ray images. We also provide simulation studies to demonstrate that SDL becomes more effective when there is a discrepancy between the best reconstructive and the best discriminative dictionaries.

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We study reinforcement learning for partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs) with infinite observation and state spaces, which remains less investigated theoretically. To this end, we make the first attempt at bridging partial observability and function approximation for a class of POMDPs with a linear structure. In detail, we propose a reinforcement learning algorithm (Optimistic Exploration via Adversarial Integral Equation or OP-TENET) that attains an $\epsilon$-optimal policy within $O(1/\epsilon^2)$ episodes. In particular, the sample complexity scales polynomially in the intrinsic dimension of the linear structure and is independent of the size of the observation and state spaces. The sample efficiency of OP-TENET is enabled by a sequence of ingredients: (i) a Bellman operator with finite memory, which represents the value function in a recursive manner, (ii) the identification and estimation of such an operator via an adversarial integral equation, which features a smoothed discriminator tailored to the linear structure, and (iii) the exploration of the observation and state spaces via optimism, which is based on quantifying the uncertainty in the adversarial integral equation.

We introduce and study the neighbourhood lattice decomposition of a distribution, which is a compact, non-graphical representation of conditional independence that is valid in the absence of a faithful graphical representation. The idea is to view the set of neighbourhoods of a variable as a subset lattice, and partition this lattice into convex sublattices, each of which directly encodes a collection of conditional independence relations. We show that this decomposition exists in any compositional graphoid and can be computed efficiently and consistently in high-dimensions. {In particular, this gives a way to encode all of independence relations implied by a distribution that satisfies the composition axiom, which is strictly weaker than the faithfulness assumption that is typically assumed by graphical approaches.} We also discuss various special cases such as graphical models and projection lattices, each of which has intuitive interpretations. Along the way, we see how this problem is closely related to neighbourhood regression, which has been extensively studied in the context of graphical models and structural equations.

Neural network based data-driven operator learning schemes have shown tremendous potential in computational mechanics. DeepONet is one such neural network architecture which has gained widespread appreciation owing to its excellent prediction capabilities. Having said that, being set in a deterministic framework exposes DeepONet architecture to the risk of overfitting, poor generalization and in its unaltered form, it is incapable of quantifying the uncertainties associated with its predictions. We propose in this paper, a Variational Bayes DeepONet (VB-DeepONet) for operator learning, which can alleviate these limitations of DeepONet architecture to a great extent and give user additional information regarding the associated uncertainty at the prediction stage. The key idea behind neural networks set in Bayesian framework is that, the weights and bias of the neural network are treated as probability distributions instead of point estimates and, Bayesian inference is used to update their prior distribution. Now, to manage the computational cost associated with approximating the posterior distribution, the proposed VB-DeepONet uses \textit{variational inference}. Unlike Markov Chain Monte Carlo schemes, variational inference has the capacity to take into account high dimensional posterior distributions while keeping the associated computational cost low. Different examples covering mechanics problems like diffusion reaction, gravity pendulum, advection diffusion have been shown to illustrate the performance of the proposed VB-DeepONet and comparisons have also been drawn against DeepONet set in deterministic framework.

Originally published on Towards AI the World's Leading AI and Technology News and Media Company. If you are building an AI-related product or service, we invite you to consider becoming an AI sponsor. At Towards AI, we help scale AI and technology startups. Let us help you unleash your technology to the masses. The iris dataset must be the most used dataset ever.

Object recognition is an essential capability when performing various tasks. Humans naturally use either or both visual and tactile perception to extract object class and properties. Typical approaches for robots, however, require complex visual systems or multiple high-density tactile sensors which can be highly expensive. In addition, they usually require actual collection of a large dataset from real objects through direct interaction. In this paper, we propose a kinesthetic-based object recognition method that can be performed with any multi-fingered robotic hand in which the kinematics is known. The method does not require tactile sensors and is based on observing grasps of the objects. We utilize a unique and frame invariant parameterization of grasps to learn instances of object shapes. To train a classifier, training data is generated rapidly and solely in a computational process without interaction with real objects. We then propose and compare between two iterative algorithms that can integrate any trained classifier. The classifiers and algorithms are independent of any particular robot hand and, therefore, can be exerted on various ones. We show in experiments, that with few grasps, the algorithms acquire accurate classification. Furthermore, we show that the object recognition approach is scalable to objects of various sizes. Similarly, a global classifier is trained to identify general geometries (e.g., an ellipsoid or a box) rather than particular ones and demonstrated on a large set of objects. Full scale experiments and analysis are provided to show the performance of the method.

The application of Bayesian inference for the purpose of model selection is very popular nowadays. In this framework, models are compared through their marginal likelihoods, or their quotients, called Bayes factors. However, marginal likelihoods depends on the prior choice. For model selection, even diffuse priors can be actually very informative, unlike for the parameter estimation problem. Furthermore, when the prior is improper, the marginal likelihood of the corresponding model is undetermined. In this work, we discuss the issue of prior sensitivity of the marginal likelihood and its role in model selection. We also comment on the use of uninformative priors, which are very common choices in practice. Several practical suggestions are discussed and many possible solutions, proposed in the literature, to design objective priors for model selection are described. Some of them also allow the use of improper priors. The connection between the marginal likelihood approach and the well-known information criteria is also presented. We describe the main issues and possible solutions by illustrative numerical examples, providing also some related code. One of them involving a real-world application on exoplanet detection.