This paper introduces a novel approach to embed flow-based models with hierarchical structures. The proposed framework is named Variational Flow Graphical (VFG) Model. VFGs learn the representation of high dimensional data via a message-passing scheme by integrating flow-based functions through variational inference. By leveraging the expressive power of neural networks, VFGs produce a representation of the data using a lower dimension, thus overcoming the drawbacks of many flow-based models, usually requiring a high dimensional latent space involving many trivial variables. Aggregation nodes are introduced in the VFG models to integrate forward-backward hierarchical information via a message passing scheme. Maximizing the evidence lower bound (ELBO) of data likelihood aligns the forward and backward messages in each aggregation node achieving a consistency node state. Algorithms have been developed to learn model parameters through gradient updating regarding the ELBO objective. The consistency of aggregation nodes enable VFGs to be applicable in tractable inference on graphical structures. Besides representation learning and numerical inference, VFGs provide a new approach for distribution modeling on datasets with graphical latent structures. Additionally, theoretical study shows that VFGs are universal approximators by leveraging the implicitly invertible flow-based structures. With flexible graphical structures and superior excessive power, VFGs could potentially be used to improve probabilistic inference. In the experiments, VFGs achieves improved evidence lower bound (ELBO) and likelihood values on multiple datasets.

We consider model selection for classic Reinforcement Learning (RL) environments -- Multi Armed Bandits (MABs) and Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) -- under general function approximations. In the model selection framework, we do not know the function classes, denoted by $\mathcal{F}$ and $\mathcal{M}$, where the true models -- reward generating function for MABs and and transition kernel for MDPs -- lie, respectively. Instead, we are given $M$ nested function (hypothesis) classes such that true models are contained in at-least one such class. In this paper, we propose and analyze efficient model selection algorithms for MABs and MDPs, that \emph{adapt} to the smallest function class (among the nested $M$ classes) containing the true underlying model. Under a separability assumption on the nested hypothesis classes, we show that the cumulative regret of our adaptive algorithms match to that of an oracle which knows the correct function classes (i.e., $\cF$ and $\cM$) a priori. Furthermore, for both the settings, we show that the cost of model selection is an additive term in the regret having weak (logarithmic) dependence on the learning horizon $T$.

The stochastic block model (SBM) is one of the most widely used generative models for network data. Many continuous-time dynamic network models are built upon the same assumption as the SBM: edges or events between all pairs of nodes are conditionally independent given the block or community memberships, which prevents them from reproducing higher-order motifs such as triangles that are commonly observed in real networks. We propose the multivariate community Hawkes (MULCH) model, an extremely flexible community-based model for continuous-time networks that introduces dependence between node pairs using structured multivariate Hawkes processes. We fit the model using a spectral clustering and likelihood-based local refinement procedure. We find that our proposed MULCH model is far more accurate than existing models both for predictive and generative tasks.

Score-based generative models exhibit state of the art performance on density estimation and generative modeling tasks. These models typically assume that the data geometry is flat, yet recent extensions have been developed to synthesize data living on Riemannian manifolds. Existing methods to accelerate sampling of diffusion models are typically not applicable in the Riemannian setting and Riemannian score-based methods have not yet been adapted to the important task of interpolation of datasets. To overcome these issues, we introduce \emph{Riemannian Diffusion Schr\"odinger Bridge}. Our proposed method generalizes Diffusion Schr\"odinger Bridge introduced in \cite{debortoli2021neurips} to the non-Euclidean setting and extends Riemannian score-based models beyond the first time reversal. We validate our proposed method on synthetic data and real Earth and climate data.

We propose Universal Causality, an overarching framework based on category theory that defines the universal property that underlies causal inference independent of the underlying representational formalism used. More formally, universal causal models are defined as categories consisting of objects and morphisms between them representing causal influences, as well as structures for carrying out interventions (experiments) and evaluating their outcomes (observations). Functors map between categories, and natural transformations map between a pair of functors across the same two categories. Abstract causal diagrams in our framework are built using universal constructions from category theory, including the limit or co-limit of an abstract causal diagram, or more generally, the Kan extension. We present two foundational results in universal causal inference. The first result, called the Universal Causality Theorem (UCT), pertains to the universality of diagrams, which are viewed as functors mapping both objects and relationships from an indexing category of abstract causal diagrams to an actual causal model whose nodes are labeled by random variables, and edges represent functional or probabilistic relationships. UCT states that any causal inference can be represented in a canonical way as the co-limit of an abstract causal diagram of representable objects. UCT follows from a basic result in the theory of sheaves. The second result, the Causal Reproducing Property (CRP), states that any causal influence of a object X on another object Y is representable as a natural transformation between two abstract causal diagrams. CRP follows from the Yoneda Lemma, one of the deepest results in category theory. The CRP property is analogous to the reproducing property in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces that served as the foundation for kernel methods in machine learning.

Prior work introduced a gradient descent trained expert system that conceptually combines the learning capabilities of neural networks with the understandability and defensible logic of an expert system. This system was shown to be able to learn patterns from data and to perform decision-making at levels rivaling those reported by neural network systems. The principal limitation of the approach, though, was the necessity for the manual development of a rule-fact network (which is then trained using backpropagation). This paper proposes a technique for overcoming this significant limitation, as compared to neural networks. Specifically, this paper proposes the use of larger and denser-than-application need rule-fact networks which are trained, pruned, manually reviewed and then re-trained for use. Multiple types of networks are evaluated under multiple operating conditions and these results are presented and assessed. Based on these individual experimental condition assessments, the proposed technique is evaluated. The data presented shows that error rates as low as 3.9% (mean, 1.2% median) can be obtained, demonstrating the efficacy of this technique for many applications.

This accessible and engaging textbook presents a concise introduction to the exciting field of artificial intelligence (AI). The broad-ranging discussion covers the key subdisciplines within the field, describing practical algorithms and concrete applications in the areas of agents, logic, search, reasoning under uncertainty, machine learning, neural networks, and reinforcement learning. Fully revised and updated, this much-anticipated second edition also includes new material on deep learning.

Processing sets or other unordered, potentially variable-sized inputs in neural networks is usually handled by aggregating a number of input tensors into a single representation. While a number of aggregation methods already exist from simple sum pooling to multi-head attention, they are limited in their representational power both from theoretical and empirical perspectives. On the search of a principally more powerful aggregation strategy, we propose an optimization-based method called Equilibrium Aggregation. We show that many existing aggregation methods can be recovered as special cases of Equilibrium Aggregation and that it is provably more efficient in some important cases. Equilibrium Aggregation can be used as a drop-in replacement in many existing architectures and applications. We validate its efficiency on three different tasks: median estimation, class counting, and molecular property prediction. In all experiments, Equilibrium Aggregation achieves higher performance than the other aggregation techniques we test.

In recent decades, science and engineering have been revolutionized by a momentous growth in the amount of available data. However, despite the unprecedented ease with which data are now collected and stored, labeling data by supplementing each feature with an informative tag remains to be challenging. Illustrative tasks where the labeling process requires expert knowledge or is tedious and time-consuming include labeling X-rays with a diagnosis, protein sequences with a protein type, texts by their topic, tweets by their sentiment, or videos by their genre. In these and numerous other examples, only a few features may be manually labeled due to cost and time constraints. How can we best propagate label information from a small number of expensive labeled features to a vast number of unlabeled ones? This is the question addressed by semi-supervised learning (SSL). This article overviews recent foundational developments on graph-based Bayesian SSL, a probabilistic framework for label propagation using similarities between features. SSL is an active research area and a thorough review of the extant literature is beyond the scope of this article. Our focus will be on topics drawn from our own research that illustrate the wide range of mathematical tools and ideas that underlie the rigorous study of the statistical accuracy and computational efficiency of graph-based Bayesian SSL.

Recent years have witnessed an upsurge of interest in the problem of anomaly detection on attributed networks due to its importance in both research and practice. Although various approaches have been proposed to solve this problem, two major limitations exist: (1) unsupervised approaches usually work much less efficiently due to the lack of supervisory signal, and (2) existing anomaly detection methods only use local contextual information to detect anomalous nodes, e.g., one- or two-hop information, but ignore the global contextual information. Since anomalous nodes differ from normal nodes in structures and attributes, it is intuitive that the distance between anomalous nodes and their neighbors should be larger than that between normal nodes and their neighbors if we remove the edges connecting anomalous and normal nodes. Thus, hop counts based on both global and local contextual information can be served as the indicators of anomaly. Motivated by this intuition, we propose a hop-count based model (HCM) to detect anomalies by modeling both local and global contextual information. To make better use of hop counts for anomaly identification, we propose to use hop counts prediction as a self-supervised task. We design two anomaly scores based on the hop counts prediction via HCM model to identify anomalies. Besides, we employ Bayesian learning to train HCM model for capturing uncertainty in learned parameters and avoiding overfitting. Extensive experiments on real-world attributed networks demonstrate that our proposed model is effective in anomaly detection.