Causal analysis may be affected by selection bias, which is defined as the systematic exclusion of data from a certain subpopulation. Previous work in this area focused on the derivation of identifiability conditions. We propose instead a first algorithm to address both identifiable and unidentifiable queries. We prove that, in spite of the missingness induced by the selection bias, the likelihood of the available data is unimodal. This enables us to use the causal expectation-maximisation scheme to obtain the values of causal queries in the identifiable case, and to compute bounds otherwise. Experiments demonstrate the approach to be practically viable. Theoretical convergence characterisations are provided.

Over the years, the separate fields of motion planning, mapping, and human trajectory prediction have advanced considerably. However, the literature is still sparse in providing practical frameworks that enable mobile manipulators to perform whole-body movements and account for the predicted motion of moving obstacles. Previous optimisation-based motion planning approaches that use distance fields have suffered from the high computational cost required to update the environment representation. We demonstrate that GPU-accelerated predicted composite distance fields significantly reduce the computation time compared to calculating distance fields from scratch. We integrate this technique with a complete motion planning and perception framework that accounts for the predicted motion of humans in dynamic environments, enabling reactive and pre-emptive motion planning that incorporates predicted motions. To achieve this, we propose and implement a novel human trajectory prediction method that combines intention recognition with trajectory optimisation-based motion planning. We validate our resultant framework on a real-world Toyota Human Support Robot (HSR) using live RGB-D sensor data from the onboard camera. In addition to providing analysis on a publicly available dataset, we release the Oxford Indoor Human Motion (Oxford-IHM) dataset and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance in human trajectory prediction. The Oxford-IHM dataset is a human trajectory prediction dataset in which people walk between regions of interest in an indoor environment. Both static and robot-mounted RGB-D cameras observe the people while tracked with a motion-capture system.

In this chapter, we identify fundamental geometric structures that underlie the problems of sampling, optimisation, inference and adaptive decision-making. Based on this identification, we derive algorithms that exploit these geometric structures to solve these problems efficiently. We show that a wide range of geometric theories emerge naturally in these fields, ranging from measure-preserving processes, information divergences, Poisson geometry, and geometric integration. Specifically, we explain how (i) leveraging the symplectic geometry of Hamiltonian systems enable us to construct (accelerated) sampling and optimisation methods, (ii) the theory of Hilbertian subspaces and Stein operators provides a general methodology to obtain robust estimators, (iii) preserving the information geometry of decision-making yields adaptive agents that perform active inference. Throughout, we emphasise the rich connections between these fields; e.g., inference draws on sampling and optimisation, and adaptive decision-making assesses decisions by inferring their counterfactual consequences. Our exposition provides a conceptual overview of underlying ideas, rather than a technical discussion, which can be found in the references herein.

Developing semi-supervised task-oriented dialog (TOD) systems by leveraging unlabeled dialog data has attracted increasing interests. For semi-supervised learning of latent state TOD models, variational learning is often used, but suffers from the annoying high-variance of the gradients propagated through discrete latent variables and the drawback of indirectly optimizing the target log-likelihood. Recently, an alternative algorithm, called joint stochastic approximation (JSA), has emerged for learning discrete latent variable models with impressive performances. In this paper, we propose to apply JSA to semi-supervised learning of the latent state TOD models, which is referred to as JSA-TOD. To our knowledge, JSA-TOD represents the first work in developing JSA based semi-supervised learning of discrete latent variable conditional models for such long sequential generation problems like in TOD systems. Extensive experiments show that JSA-TOD significantly outperforms its variational learning counterpart. Remarkably, semi-supervised JSA-TOD using 20% labels performs close to the full-supervised baseline on MultiWOZ2.1.

Hierarchical models represent a challenging setting for inference algorithms. MCMC methods struggle to scale to large models with many local variables and observations, and variational inference (VI) may fail to provide accurate approximations due to the use of simple variational families. Some variational methods (e.g. importance weighted VI) integrate Monte Carlo methods to give better accuracy, but these tend to be unsuitable for hierarchical models, as they do not allow for subsampling and their performance tends to degrade for high dimensional models. We propose a new family of variational bounds for hierarchical models, based on the application of tightening methods (e.g. importance weighting) separately for each group of local random variables. We show that our approach naturally allows the use of subsampling to get unbiased gradients, and that it fully leverages the power of methods that build tighter lower bounds by applying them independently in lower dimensional spaces, leading to better results and more accurate posterior approximations than relevant baselines.

Frequently asked questions What are the benefits of using CausalNex? When should you consider using CausalNex?

Training and testing supervised object detection models require a large collection of images with ground truth labels. Labels define object classes in the image, as well as their locations, shape, and possibly other information such as pose. The labeling process has proven extremely time consuming, even with the presence of manpower. We introduce a novel labeling tool for 2D images as well as 3D triangular meshes: 3D Labeling Tool (3DLT). This is a standalone, feature-heavy and cross-platform software that does not require installation and can run on Windows, macOS and Linux-based distributions. Instead of labeling the same object on every image separately like current tools, we use depth information to reconstruct a triangular mesh from said images and label the object only once on the aforementioned mesh. We use registration to simplify 3D labeling, outlier detection to improve 2D bounding box calculation and surface reconstruction to expand labeling possibility to large point clouds. Our tool is tested against state of the art methods and it greatly surpasses them in terms of speed while preserving accuracy and ease of use.

In this paper, we propose five prediction intervals for the beta autoregressive moving average model. This model is suitable for modeling and forecasting variables that assume values in the interval $(0,1)$. Two of the proposed prediction intervals are based on approximations considering the normal distribution and the quantile function of the beta distribution. We also consider bootstrap-based prediction intervals, namely: (i) bootstrap prediction errors (BPE) interval; (ii) bias-corrected and acceleration (BCa) prediction interval; and (iii) percentile prediction interval based on the quantiles of the bootstrap-predicted values for two different bootstrapping schemes. The proposed prediction intervals were evaluated according to Monte Carlo simulations. The BCa prediction interval offered the best performance among the evaluated intervals, showing lower coverage rate distortion and small average length. We applied our methodology for predicting the water level of the Cantareira water supply system in S\~ao Paulo, Brazil.

Are intelligent machines really intelligent? Is the underlying philosophical concept of intelligence satisfactory for describing how the present systems work? Is understanding a necessary and sufficient condition for intelligence? If a machine could understand, should we attribute subjectivity to it? This paper addresses the problem of deciding whether the so-called "intelligent machines" are capable of understanding, instead of merely processing signs. It deals with the relationship between syntaxis and semantics. The main thesis concerns the inevitability of semantics for any discussion about the possibility of building conscious machines, condensed into the following two tenets: "If a machine is capable of understanding (in the strong sense), then it must be capable of combining rules and intuitions"; "If semantics cannot be reduced to syntaxis, then a machine cannot understand." Our conclusion states that it is not necessary to attribute understanding to a machine in order to explain its exhibited "intelligent" behavior; a merely syntactic and mechanistic approach to intelligence as a task-solving tool suffices to justify the range of operations that it can display in the current state of technological development.

We study the performance -- and specifically the rate at which the error probability converges to zero -- of Machine Learning (ML) classification techniques. Leveraging the theory of large deviations, we provide the mathematical conditions for a ML classifier to exhibit error probabilities that vanish exponentially, say $\sim \exp\left(-n\,I + o(n) \right)$, where $n$ is the number of informative observations available for testing (or another relevant parameter, such as the size of the target in an image) and $I$ is the error rate. Such conditions depend on the Fenchel-Legendre transform of the cumulant-generating function of the Data-Driven Decision Function (D3F, i.e., what is thresholded before the final binary decision is made) learned in the training phase. As such, the D3F and, consequently, the related error rate $I$, depend on the given training set, which is assumed of finite size. Interestingly, these conditions can be verified and tested numerically exploiting the available dataset, or a synthetic dataset, generated according to the available information on the underlying statistical model. In other words, the classification error probability convergence to zero and its rate can be computed on a portion of the dataset available for training. Coherently with the large deviations theory, we can also establish the convergence, for $n$ large enough, of the normalized D3F statistic to a Gaussian distribution. This property is exploited to set a desired asymptotic false alarm probability, which empirically turns out to be accurate even for quite realistic values of $n$. Furthermore, approximate error probability curves $\sim \zeta_n \exp\left(-n\,I \right)$ are provided, thanks to the refined asymptotic derivation (often referred to as exact asymptotics), where $\zeta_n$ represents the most representative sub-exponential terms of the error probabilities.