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 Uncertainty


Language Model Cascades

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Prompted models have demonstrated impressive In this position paper, we argue that a useful unifying few-shot learning abilities. Repeated interactions framework for understanding and extending this disparate at test-time with a single model, or the body of work is in terms of probabilistic programming languages composition of multiple models together, further (PPL) extended to work with strings, instead of expands capabilities. These compositions are more atomic data types like integers and floats. That is, probabilistic models, and may be expressed in we use a PPL to define a joint probability model on stringvalued the language of graphical models with random random variables, parameterized using LMs, and variables whose values are complex data types then condition this model on string-valued observations in such as strings. Cases with control flow and dynamic order to compute a posterior over string-valued unknowns, structure require techniques from probabilistic which we can then infer. We call such a probabilistic programming, which allow implementing program a language model cascade. We show that this disparate model structures and inference strategies framework captures many recent approaches, and also allows in a unified language. We formalize several us to tackle more complex multi-step reasoning problems.


Development of fully intuitionistic fuzzy data envelopment analysis model with missing data: an application to Indian police sector

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a technique used to measure the efficiency of decision-making units (DMUs). In order to measure the efficiency of DMUs, the essential requirement is input-output data. Data is usually collected by humans, machines, or both. Due to human/machine errors, there are chances of having some missing values or inaccuracy, such as vagueness/uncertainty/hesitation in the collected data. In this situation, it will be difficult to measure the efficiencies of DMUs accurately. To overcome these shortcomings, a method is presented that can deal with missing values and inaccuracy in the data. To measure the performance efficiencies of DMUs, an input minimization BCC (IMBCC) model in a fully intuitionistic fuzzy (IF) environment is proposed. To validate the efficacy of the proposed fully intuitionistic fuzzy input minimization BCC (FIFIMBCC) model and the technique to deal with missing values in the data, a real-life application to measure the performance efficiencies of Indian police stations is presented.


Learning to Assess Danger from Movies for Cooperative Escape Planning in Hazardous Environments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

There has been a plethora of work towards improving robot perception and navigation, yet their application in hazardous environments, like during a fire or an earthquake, is still at a nascent stage. We hypothesize two key challenges here: first, it is difficult to replicate such scenarios in the real world, which is necessary for training and testing purposes. Second, current systems are not fully able to take advantage of the rich multi-modal data available in such hazardous environments. To address the first challenge, we propose to harness the enormous amount of visual content available in the form of movies and TV shows, and develop a dataset that can represent hazardous environments encountered in the real world. The data is annotated with high-level danger ratings for realistic disaster images, and corresponding keywords are provided that summarize the content of the scene. In response to the second challenge, we propose a multi-modal danger estimation pipeline for collaborative human-robot escape scenarios. Our Bayesian framework improves danger estimation by fusing information from robot's camera sensor and language inputs from the human. Furthermore, we augment the estimation module with a risk-aware planner that helps in identifying safer paths out of the dangerous environment. Through extensive simulations, we exhibit the advantages of our multi-modal perception framework that gets translated into tangible benefits such as higher success rate in a collaborative human-robot mission.


Multi-Objective Hyperparameter Optimization -- An Overview

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hyperparameter optimization constitutes a large part of typical modern machine learning workflows. This arises from the fact that machine learning methods and corresponding preprocessing steps often only yield optimal performance when hyperparameters are properly tuned. But in many applications, we are not only interested in optimizing ML pipelines solely for predictive accuracy; additional metrics or constraints must be considered when determining an optimal configuration, resulting in a multi-objective optimization problem. This is often neglected in practice, due to a lack of knowledge and readily available software implementations for multi-objective hyperparameter optimization. In this work, we introduce the reader to the basics of multi-objective hyperparameter optimization and motivate its usefulness in applied ML. Furthermore, we provide an extensive survey of existing optimization strategies, both from the domain of evolutionary algorithms and Bayesian optimization. We illustrate the utility of MOO in several specific ML applications, considering objectives such as operating conditions, prediction time, sparseness, fairness, interpretability and robustness.


Unbiased Active Inference for Classical Control

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Active inference is a mathematical framework that originated in computational neuroscience. Recently, it has been demonstrated as a promising approach for constructing goal-driven behavior in robotics. Specifically, the active inference controller (AIC) has been successful on several continuous control and state-estimation tasks. Despite its relative success, some established design choices lead to a number of practical limitations for robot control. These include having a biased estimate of the state, and only an implicit model of control actions. In this paper, we highlight these limitations and propose an extended version of the unbiased active inference controller (u-AIC). The u-AIC maintains all the compelling benefits of the AIC and removes its limitations. Simulation results on a 2-DOF arm and experiments on a real 7-DOF manipulator show the improved performance of the u-AIC with respect to the standard AIC. The code can be found at https://github.com/cpezzato/unbiased_aic.


Bounding Counterfactuals under Selection Bias

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Causal analysis may be affected by selection bias, which is defined as the systematic exclusion of data from a certain subpopulation. Previous work in this area focused on the derivation of identifiability conditions. We propose instead a first algorithm to address both identifiable and unidentifiable queries. We prove that, in spite of the missingness induced by the selection bias, the likelihood of the available data is unimodal. This enables us to use the causal expectation-maximisation scheme to obtain the values of causal queries in the identifiable case, and to compute bounds otherwise. Experiments demonstrate the approach to be practically viable. Theoretical convergence characterisations are provided.


Motion Planning in Dynamic Environments Using Context-Aware Human Trajectory Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Over the years, the separate fields of motion planning, mapping, and human trajectory prediction have advanced considerably. However, the literature is still sparse in providing practical frameworks that enable mobile manipulators to perform whole-body movements and account for the predicted motion of moving obstacles. Previous optimisation-based motion planning approaches that use distance fields have suffered from the high computational cost required to update the environment representation. We demonstrate that GPU-accelerated predicted composite distance fields significantly reduce the computation time compared to calculating distance fields from scratch. We integrate this technique with a complete motion planning and perception framework that accounts for the predicted motion of humans in dynamic environments, enabling reactive and pre-emptive motion planning that incorporates predicted motions. To achieve this, we propose and implement a novel human trajectory prediction method that combines intention recognition with trajectory optimisation-based motion planning. We validate our resultant framework on a real-world Toyota Human Support Robot (HSR) using live RGB-D sensor data from the onboard camera. In addition to providing analysis on a publicly available dataset, we release the Oxford Indoor Human Motion (Oxford-IHM) dataset and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance in human trajectory prediction. The Oxford-IHM dataset is a human trajectory prediction dataset in which people walk between regions of interest in an indoor environment. Both static and robot-mounted RGB-D cameras observe the people while tracked with a motion-capture system.


Geometric Methods for Sampling, Optimisation, Inference and Adaptive Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this chapter, we identify fundamental geometric structures that underlie the problems of sampling, optimisation, inference and adaptive decision-making. Based on this identification, we derive algorithms that exploit these geometric structures to solve these problems efficiently. We show that a wide range of geometric theories emerge naturally in these fields, ranging from measure-preserving processes, information divergences, Poisson geometry, and geometric integration. Specifically, we explain how (i) leveraging the symplectic geometry of Hamiltonian systems enable us to construct (accelerated) sampling and optimisation methods, (ii) the theory of Hilbertian subspaces and Stein operators provides a general methodology to obtain robust estimators, (iii) preserving the information geometry of decision-making yields adaptive agents that perform active inference. Throughout, we emphasise the rich connections between these fields; e.g., inference draws on sampling and optimisation, and adaptive decision-making assesses decisions by inferring their counterfactual consequences. Our exposition provides a conceptual overview of underlying ideas, rather than a technical discussion, which can be found in the references herein.


Advancing Semi-Supervised Task Oriented Dialog Systems by JSA Learning of Discrete Latent Variable Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Developing semi-supervised task-oriented dialog (TOD) systems by leveraging unlabeled dialog data has attracted increasing interests. For semi-supervised learning of latent state TOD models, variational learning is often used, but suffers from the annoying high-variance of the gradients propagated through discrete latent variables and the drawback of indirectly optimizing the target log-likelihood. Recently, an alternative algorithm, called joint stochastic approximation (JSA), has emerged for learning discrete latent variable models with impressive performances. In this paper, we propose to apply JSA to semi-supervised learning of the latent state TOD models, which is referred to as JSA-TOD. To our knowledge, JSA-TOD represents the first work in developing JSA based semi-supervised learning of discrete latent variable conditional models for such long sequential generation problems like in TOD systems. Extensive experiments show that JSA-TOD significantly outperforms its variational learning counterpart. Remarkably, semi-supervised JSA-TOD using 20% labels performs close to the full-supervised baseline on MultiWOZ2.1.


Variational Inference with Locally Enhanced Bounds for Hierarchical Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Hierarchical models represent a challenging setting for inference algorithms. MCMC methods struggle to scale to large models with many local variables and observations, and variational inference (VI) may fail to provide accurate approximations due to the use of simple variational families. Some variational methods (e.g. importance weighted VI) integrate Monte Carlo methods to give better accuracy, but these tend to be unsuitable for hierarchical models, as they do not allow for subsampling and their performance tends to degrade for high dimensional models. We propose a new family of variational bounds for hierarchical models, based on the application of tightening methods (e.g. importance weighting) separately for each group of local random variables. We show that our approach naturally allows the use of subsampling to get unbiased gradients, and that it fully leverages the power of methods that build tighter lower bounds by applying them independently in lower dimensional spaces, leading to better results and more accurate posterior approximations than relevant baselines.