Uncertainty
An Online Sparse Streaming Feature Selection Algorithm
Chen, Feilong, Wu, Di, Yang, Jie, He, Yi
Online streaming feature selection (OSFS), which conducts feature selection in an online manner, plays an important role in dealing with high-dimensional data. In many real applications such as intelligent healthcare platform, streaming feature always has some missing data, which raises a crucial challenge in conducting OSFS, i.e., how to establish the uncertain relationship between sparse streaming features and labels. Unfortunately, existing OSFS algorithms never consider such uncertain relationship. To fill this gap, we in this paper propose an online sparse streaming feature selection with uncertainty (OS2FSU) algorithm. OS2FSU consists of two main parts: 1) latent factor analysis is utilized to pre-estimate the missing data in sparse streaming features before con-ducting feature selection, and 2) fuzzy logic and neighborhood rough set are employed to alleviate the uncertainty between estimated streaming features and labels during conducting feature selection. In the experiments, OS2FSU is compared with five state-of-the-art OSFS algorithms on six real datasets. The results demonstrate that OS2FSU outperforms its competitors when missing data are encountered in OSFS.
AdaCat: Adaptive Categorical Discretization for Autoregressive Models
Li, Qiyang, Jain, Ajay, Abbeel, Pieter
Autoregressive generative models can estimate complex continuous data distributions, like trajectory rollouts in an RL environment, image intensities, and audio. Most state-of-the-art models discretize continuous data into several bins and use categorical distributions over the bins to approximate the continuous data distribution. The advantage is that the categorical distribution can easily express multiple modes and are straightforward to optimize. However, such approximation cannot express sharp changes in density without using significantly more bins, making it parameter inefficient. We propose an efficient, expressive, multimodal parameterization called Adaptive Categorical Discretization (AdaCat). AdaCat discretizes each dimension of an autoregressive model adaptively, which allows the model to allocate density to fine intervals of interest, improving parameter efficiency. AdaCat generalizes both categoricals and quantile-based regression. AdaCat is a simple add-on to any discretization-based distribution estimator. In experiments, AdaCat improves density estimation for real-world tabular data, images, audio, and trajectories, and improves planning in model-based offline RL.
Approximate Bayesian Neural Operators: Uncertainty Quantification for Parametric PDEs
Magnani, Emilia, Krämer, Nicholas, Eschenhagen, Runa, Rosasco, Lorenzo, Hennig, Philipp
Neural operators are a type of deep architecture that learns to solve (i.e. learns the nonlinear solution operator of) partial differential equations (PDEs). The current state of the art for these models does not provide explicit uncertainty quantification. This is arguably even more of a problem for this kind of tasks than elsewhere in machine learning, because the dynamical systems typically described by PDEs often exhibit subtle, multiscale structure that makes errors hard to spot by humans. In this work, we first provide a mathematically detailed Bayesian formulation of the ''shallow'' (linear) version of neural operators in the formalism of Gaussian processes. We then extend this analytic treatment to general deep neural operators using approximate methods from Bayesian deep learning. We extend previous results on neural operators by providing them with uncertainty quantification. As a result, our approach is able to identify cases, and provide structured uncertainty estimates, where the neural operator fails to predict well.
Understanding the classes better with class-specific and rule-specific feature selection, and redundancy control in a fuzzy rule based framework
Das, Suchismita, Pal, Nikhil R.
Recently, several studies have claimed that using class-specific feature subsets provides certain advantages over using a single feature subset for representing the data for a classification problem. Unlike traditional feature selection methods, the class-specific feature selection methods select an optimal feature subset for each class. Typically class-specific feature selection (CSFS) methods use one-versus-all split of the data set that leads to issues such as class imbalance, decision aggregation, and high computational overhead. We propose a class-specific feature selection method embedded in a fuzzy rule-based classifier, which is free from the drawbacks associated with most existing class-specific methods. Additionally, our method can be adapted to control the level of redundancy in the class-specific feature subsets by adding a suitable regularizer to the learning objective. Our method results in class-specific rules involving class-specific subsets. We also propose an extension where different rules of a particular class are defined by different feature subsets to model different substructures within the class. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been validated through experiments on three synthetic data sets.
Stochastic Deep Networks with Linear Competing Units for Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning
Kalais, Konstantinos, Chatzis, Sotirios
This work addresses meta-learning (ML) by considering deep networks with stochastic local winner-takes-all (LWTA) activations. This type of network units results in sparse representations from each model layer, as the units are organized into blocks where only one unit generates a non-zero output. The main operating principle of the introduced units rely on stochastic principles, as the network performs posterior sampling over competing units to select the winner. Therefore, the proposed networks are explicitly designed to extract input data representations of sparse stochastic nature, as opposed to the currently standard deterministic representation paradigm. Our approach produces state-of-the-art predictive accuracy on few-shot image classification and regression experiments, as well as reduced predictive error on an active learning setting; these improvements come with an immensely reduced computational cost.
Learning Invariant Weights in Neural Networks
van der Ouderaa, Tycho F. A., van der Wilk, Mark
Assumptions about invariances or symmetries in data can significantly increase the predictive power of statistical models. Many commonly used models in machine learning are constraint to respect certain symmetries in the data, such as translation equivariance in convolutional neural networks, and incorporation of new symmetry types is actively being studied. Yet, efforts to learn such invariances from the data itself remains an open research problem. It has been shown that marginal likelihood offers a principled way to learn invariances in Gaussian Processes. We propose a weight-space equivalent to this approach, by minimizing a lower bound on the marginal likelihood to learn invariances in neural networks resulting in naturally higher performing models.
DAPDAG: Domain Adaptation via Perturbed DAG Reconstruction
Li, Yanke, Tobias, Hatt, Bica, Ioana, van der Schaar, Mihaela
Leveraging labelled data from multiple domains to enable prediction in another domain without labels is a significant, yet challenging problem. To address this problem, we introduce the framework DAPDAG (\textbf{D}omain \textbf{A}daptation via \textbf{P}erturbed \textbf{DAG} Reconstruction) and propose to learn an auto-encoder that undertakes inference on population statistics given features and reconstructing a directed acyclic graph (DAG) as an auxiliary task. The underlying DAG structure is assumed invariant among observed variables whose conditional distributions are allowed to vary across domains led by a latent environmental variable $E$. The encoder is designed to serve as an inference device on $E$ while the decoder reconstructs each observed variable conditioned on its graphical parents in the DAG and the inferred $E$. We train the encoder and decoder jointly in an end-to-end manner and conduct experiments on synthetic and real datasets with mixed variables. Empirical results demonstrate that reconstructing the DAG benefits the approximate inference. Furthermore, our approach can achieve competitive performance against other benchmarks in prediction tasks, with better adaptation ability, especially in the target domain significantly different from the source domains.
Generative Adversarial Learning for Intelligent Trust Management in 6G Wireless Networks
Yang, Liu, Li, Yun, Yang, Simon X., Lu, Yinzhi, Guo, Tan, Yu, Keping
Emerging six generation (6G) is the integration of heterogeneous wireless networks, which can seamlessly support anywhere and anytime networking. But high Quality-of-Trust should be offered by 6G to meet mobile user expectations. Artificial intelligence (AI) is considered as one of the most important components in 6G. Then AI-based trust management is a promising paradigm to provide trusted and reliable services. In this article, a generative adversarial learning-enabled trust management method is presented for 6G wireless networks. Some typical AI-based trust management schemes are first reviewed, and then a potential heterogeneous and intelligent 6G architecture is introduced. Next, the integration of AI and trust management is developed to optimize the intelligence and security. Finally, the presented AI-based trust management method is applied to secure clustering to achieve reliable and real-time communications. Simulation results have demonstrated its excellent performance in guaranteeing network security and service quality.
An Evidential Neural Network Model for Regression Based on Random Fuzzy Numbers
We introduce a distance-based neural network model for regression, in which prediction uncertainty is quantified by a belief function on the real line. The model interprets the distances of the input vector to prototypes as pieces of evidence represented by Gaussian random fuzzy numbers (GRFN's) and combined by the generalized product intersection rule, an operator that extends Dempster's rule to random fuzzy sets. The network output is a GRFN that can be summarized by three numbers characterizing the most plausible predicted value, variability around this value, and epistemic uncertainty. Experiments with real datasets demonstrate the very good performance of the method as compared to state-of-the-art evidential and statistical learning algorithms.
How should we proxy for race/ethnicity? Comparing Bayesian improved surname geocoding to machine learning methods
Political science research often requires constructing a race/ethnicity proxy variable for datasets that do not contain it, like voter registration files, lists of electoral candidates, or political donation records. Constructing such a proxy is an important step for conducting ecological inference in voting rights litigation (Barreto et al. [2019], Imai and Khanna [2016]), redistricting (DeLuca and Curiel [2022], Kenny et al. [2021]), and substantive research on the role of race/ethnicity in politics (Enos [2016], Enos et al. [2019], Grumbach and Sahn [2020]). The most common method for proxying race/ethnicity is Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding (BISG), which uses Bayes' rule to compute a probability distribution over race/ethnicity categories conditional on a voter's surname and where they live (Elliott et al. [2008, 2009]). BISG has attained widespread popularity due to its parsimony, computational efficiency, and superior performance when compared to existing alternatives, namely spatial interpolation of Census racial-ethnic composition from Census geographies (Imai and Khanna [2016], Clark et al. [2021], Shah and Davis [2017]). While BISG performs well compared to the small suite of existing alternatives, it has not yet been benchmarked against machine learning (ML) models, which can produce race/ethnicity predictions from more flexible and potentially more accurate models. In this paper I present the results of such a benchmark. I train a range of machine learning models using voter registration data from Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and a portion of California where voters self-report their race/ethnicity upon registration. The registries in these states contain over 26 million labelled observations, which equates to greater than a five percent non-representative sample of the United States electorate. I then compare BISG against predictions from these models made out-of-state.