Motivating explanations in Bayesian networks using MAP-independence Johan Kwisthout We introduce MAP-independence as a novel concept in Bayesian networks, indicating potential impact of an intermediate (hidden) variable to the MAP explanation. We discuss how this concept may contribute to justifying MAP explanations, for example in the context of a decision support system. Abstract In decision support systems the motivation and justification of the system's diagnosis or classification is crucial for the acceptance of the system by the human user. In Bayesian networks a diagnosis or classification is typically formalized as the computation of the most probable joint value assignment to the hypothesis variables, given the observed values of the evidence variables (generally known as the MAP problem). While solving the MAP problem gives the most probable explanation of the evidence, the computation is a black box as far as the human user is concerned and it does not give additional insights that allow the user to appreciate and accept the decision. For example, a user might want to know to whether an unobserved variable could potentially (upon observation) impact the explanation, or whether it is irrelevant in this aspect.

Over the past year or so, I've been using JAX extensively for my research, and I've also been encouraging other astronomers to give it a try. In particular, I've been using JAX as the computation engine for probabilistic inference tasks. There's more to it, but one way that I like to think about JAX is as NumPy with just-in-time compilation and automatic differentiation. The just-in-time compilation features of JAX can be used to speed up you NumPy computations by removing some Python overhead and by executing it on your GPU. Then, automatic differentiation can be used to efficiently compute the derivatives of your code with respect to its input parameters.

Surface grading, the process of leveling an uneven area containing pre-dumped sand piles, is an important task in the construction site pipeline. This labour-intensive process is often carried out by a dozer, a key machinery tool at any construction site. Current attempts to automate surface grading assume perfect localization. However, in real-world scenarios, this assumption fails, as agents are presented with imperfect perception, which leads to degraded performance. In this work, we address the problem of autonomous grading under uncertainties. First, we implement a simulation and a scaled real-world prototype environment to enable rapid policy exploration and evaluation in this setting. Second, we formalize the problem as a partially observable markov decision process and train an agent capable of handling such uncertainties. We show, through rigorous experiments, that an agent trained under perfect localization will suffer degraded performance when presented with localization uncertainties. However, an agent trained using our method will develop a more robust policy for addressing such errors and, consequently, exhibit a better grading performance.

Social media have the potential to provide timely information about emergency situations and sudden events. However, finding relevant information among millions of posts being posted every day can be difficult, and developing a data analysis project usually requires time and technical skills. This study presents an approach that provides flexible support for analyzing social media, particularly during emergencies. Different use cases in which social media analysis can be adopted are introduced, and the challenges of retrieving information from large sets of posts are discussed. The focus is on analyzing images and text contained in social media posts and a set of automatic data processing tools for filtering, classification, and geolocation of content with a human-in-the-loop approach to support the data analyst. Such support includes both feedback and suggestions to configure automated tools, and crowdsourcing to gather inputs from citizens. The results are validated by discussing three case studies developed within the Crowd4SDG H2020 European project.

We commonly assume that data are a homogeneous set of observations when learning the structure of Bayesian networks. However, they often comprise different data sets that are related but not homogeneous because they have been collected in different ways or from different populations. In our previous work (Azzimonti, Corani and Scutari, 2021), we proposed a closed-form Bayesian Hierarchical Dirichlet score for discrete data that pools information across related data sets to learn a single encompassing network structure, while taking into account the differences in their probabilistic structures. In this paper, we provide an analogous solution for learning a Bayesian network from continuous data using mixed-effects models to pool information across the related data sets. We study its structural, parametric, predictive and classification accuracy and we show that it outperforms both conditional Gaussian Bayesian networks (that do not perform any pooling) and classical Gaussian Bayesian networks (that disregard the heterogeneous nature of the data). The improvement is marked for low sample sizes and for unbalanced data sets.

Density estimation is a fundamental task in statistics and machine learning applications. Kernel density estimation is a powerful tool for non-parametric density estimation in low dimensions; however, its performance is poor in higher dimensions. Moreover, its prediction complexity scale linearly with more training data points. This paper presents a method for neural density estimation that can be seen as a type of kernel density estimation, but without the high prediction computational complexity. The method is based on density matrices, a formalism used in quantum mechanics, and adaptive Fourier features. The method can be trained without optimization, but it could be also integrated with deep learning architectures and trained using gradient descent. Thus, it could be seen as a form of neural density estimation method. The method was evaluated in different synthetic and real datasets, and its performance compared against state-of-the-art neural density estimation methods, obtaining competitive results.

To facilitate the development of new models to bridge the gap between machine and human social intelligence, the recently proposed Baby Intuitions Benchmark (arXiv:2102.11938) provides a suite of tasks designed to evaluate commonsense reasoning about agents' goals and actions that even young infants exhibit. Here we present a principled Bayesian solution to this benchmark, based on a hierarchically Bayesian Theory of Mind (HBToM). By including hierarchical priors on agent goals and dispositions, inference over our HBToM model enables few-shot learning of the efficiency and preferences of an agent, which can then be used in commonsense plausibility judgements about subsequent agent behavior. This approach achieves near-perfect accuracy on most benchmark tasks, outperforming deep learning and imitation learning baselines while producing interpretable human-like inferences, demonstrating the advantages of structured Bayesian models of human social cognition.

The requirement to trace and process moving objects in the contemporary era gradually increases since numerous applications quickly demand precise moving object locations. The Map-matching method is employed as a preprocessing technique, which matches a moving object point on a corresponding road. However, most of the GPS trajectory datasets include stay-points irregularity, which makes map-matching algorithms mismatch trajectories to irrelevant streets. Therefore, determining the stay-point region in GPS trajectory datasets results in better accurate matching and more rapid approaches. In this work, we cluster stay-points in a trajectory dataset with DBSCAN and eliminate redundant data to improve the efficiency of the map-matching algorithm by lowering processing time. We reckoned our proposed method's performance and exactness with a ground truth dataset compared to a fuzzy-logic based map-matching algorithm. Fortunately, our approach yields 27.39% data size reduction and 8.9% processing time reduction with the same accurate results as the previous fuzzy-logic based map-matching approach.

Temporal point process (TPP) is commonly used to model the asynchronous event sequence featuring occurrence timestamps and revealed by probabilistic models conditioned on historical impacts. While lots of previous works have focused on `goodness-of-fit' of TPP models by maximizing the likelihood, their predictive performance is unsatisfactory, which means the timestamps generated by models are far apart from true observations. Recently, deep generative models such as denoising diffusion and score matching models have achieved great progress in image generating tasks by demonstrating their capability of generating samples of high quality. However, there are no complete and unified works exploring and studying the potential of generative models in the context of event occurence modeling for TPP. In this work, we try to fill the gap by designing a unified \textbf{g}enerative framework for \textbf{n}eural \textbf{t}emporal \textbf{p}oint \textbf{p}rocess (\textsc{GNTPP}) model to explore their feasibility and effectiveness, and further improve models' predictive performance. Besides, in terms of measuring the historical impacts, we revise the attentive models which summarize influence from historical events with an adaptive reweighting term considering events' type relation and time intervals. Extensive experiments have been conducted to illustrate the improved predictive capability of \textsc{GNTPP} with a line of generative probabilistic decoders, and performance gain from the revised attention. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that adapts generative models in a complete unified framework and studies their effectiveness in the context of TPP. Our codebase including all the methods given in Section.5.1.1 is open in \url{https://github.com/BIRD-TAO/GNTPP}. We hope the code framework can facilitate future research in Neural TPPs.

Contemporary undertakings provide limitless opportunities for widespread application of machine reasoning and artificial intelligence in situations characterised by uncertainty, hostility and sheer volume of data. The paper develops a valuation network as a graphical system for higher-level fusion and reasoning under uncertainty in support of the human operators. Valuations, which are mathematical representation of (uncertain) knowledge and collected data, are expressed as credal sets, defined as coherent interval probabilities in the framework of imprecise probability theory. The basic operations with such credal sets, combination and marginalisation, are defined to satisfy the axioms of a valuation algebra. A practical implementation of the credal valuation network is discussed and its utility demonstrated on a small scale example. As the volume of information (domain knowledge and data) exceeds, in most practical situations, the ability of human operators to process and comprehend it in a timely manner, we increasingly rely on machine intelligence for reasoning and forming inferences.