Density estimation is a fundamental task in statistics and machine learning applications. Kernel density estimation is a powerful tool for non-parametric density estimation in low dimensions; however, its performance is poor in higher dimensions. Moreover, its prediction complexity scale linearly with more training data points. This paper presents a method for neural density estimation that can be seen as a type of kernel density estimation, but without the high prediction computational complexity. The method is based on density matrices, a formalism used in quantum mechanics, and adaptive Fourier features. The method can be trained without optimization, but it could be also integrated with deep learning architectures and trained using gradient descent. Thus, it could be seen as a form of neural density estimation method. The method was evaluated in different synthetic and real datasets, and its performance compared against state-of-the-art neural density estimation methods, obtaining competitive results.

To facilitate the development of new models to bridge the gap between machine and human social intelligence, the recently proposed Baby Intuitions Benchmark (arXiv:2102.11938) provides a suite of tasks designed to evaluate commonsense reasoning about agents' goals and actions that even young infants exhibit. Here we present a principled Bayesian solution to this benchmark, based on a hierarchically Bayesian Theory of Mind (HBToM). By including hierarchical priors on agent goals and dispositions, inference over our HBToM model enables few-shot learning of the efficiency and preferences of an agent, which can then be used in commonsense plausibility judgements about subsequent agent behavior. This approach achieves near-perfect accuracy on most benchmark tasks, outperforming deep learning and imitation learning baselines while producing interpretable human-like inferences, demonstrating the advantages of structured Bayesian models of human social cognition.

The requirement to trace and process moving objects in the contemporary era gradually increases since numerous applications quickly demand precise moving object locations. The Map-matching method is employed as a preprocessing technique, which matches a moving object point on a corresponding road. However, most of the GPS trajectory datasets include stay-points irregularity, which makes map-matching algorithms mismatch trajectories to irrelevant streets. Therefore, determining the stay-point region in GPS trajectory datasets results in better accurate matching and more rapid approaches. In this work, we cluster stay-points in a trajectory dataset with DBSCAN and eliminate redundant data to improve the efficiency of the map-matching algorithm by lowering processing time. We reckoned our proposed method's performance and exactness with a ground truth dataset compared to a fuzzy-logic based map-matching algorithm. Fortunately, our approach yields 27.39% data size reduction and 8.9% processing time reduction with the same accurate results as the previous fuzzy-logic based map-matching approach.

Temporal point process (TPP) is commonly used to model the asynchronous event sequence featuring occurrence timestamps and revealed by probabilistic models conditioned on historical impacts. While lots of previous works have focused on `goodness-of-fit' of TPP models by maximizing the likelihood, their predictive performance is unsatisfactory, which means the timestamps generated by models are far apart from true observations. Recently, deep generative models such as denoising diffusion and score matching models have achieved great progress in image generating tasks by demonstrating their capability of generating samples of high quality. However, there are no complete and unified works exploring and studying the potential of generative models in the context of event occurence modeling for TPP. In this work, we try to fill the gap by designing a unified \textbf{g}enerative framework for \textbf{n}eural \textbf{t}emporal \textbf{p}oint \textbf{p}rocess (\textsc{GNTPP}) model to explore their feasibility and effectiveness, and further improve models' predictive performance. Besides, in terms of measuring the historical impacts, we revise the attentive models which summarize influence from historical events with an adaptive reweighting term considering events' type relation and time intervals. Extensive experiments have been conducted to illustrate the improved predictive capability of \textsc{GNTPP} with a line of generative probabilistic decoders, and performance gain from the revised attention. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that adapts generative models in a complete unified framework and studies their effectiveness in the context of TPP. Our codebase including all the methods given in Section.5.1.1 is open in \url{https://github.com/BIRD-TAO/GNTPP}. We hope the code framework can facilitate future research in Neural TPPs.

Contemporary undertakings provide limitless opportunities for widespread application of machine reasoning and artificial intelligence in situations characterised by uncertainty, hostility and sheer volume of data. The paper develops a valuation network as a graphical system for higher-level fusion and reasoning under uncertainty in support of the human operators. Valuations, which are mathematical representation of (uncertain) knowledge and collected data, are expressed as credal sets, defined as coherent interval probabilities in the framework of imprecise probability theory. The basic operations with such credal sets, combination and marginalisation, are defined to satisfy the axioms of a valuation algebra. A practical implementation of the credal valuation network is discussed and its utility demonstrated on a small scale example. As the volume of information (domain knowledge and data) exceeds, in most practical situations, the ability of human operators to process and comprehend it in a timely manner, we increasingly rely on machine intelligence for reasoning and forming inferences.

Traditional model-based reinforcement learning (RL) methods generate forward rollout traces using the learnt dynamics model to reduce interactions with the real environment. The recent model-based RL method considers the way to learn a backward model that specifies the conditional probability of the previous state given the previous action and the current state to additionally generate backward rollout trajectories. However, in this type of model-based method, the samples derived from backward rollouts and those from forward rollouts are simply aggregated together to optimize the policy via the model-free RL algorithm, which may decrease both the sample efficiency and the convergence rate. This is because such an approach ignores the fact that backward rollout traces are often generated starting from some high-value states and are certainly more instructive for the agent to improve the behavior. In this paper, we propose the backward imitation and forward reinforcement learning (BIFRL) framework where the agent treats backward rollout traces as expert demonstrations for the imitation of excellent behaviors, and then collects forward rollout transitions for policy reinforcement. Consequently, BIFRL empowers the agent to both reach to and explore from high-value states in a more efficient manner, and further reduces the real interactions, making it potentially more suitable for real-robot learning. Moreover, a value-regularized generative adversarial network is introduced to augment the valuable states which are infrequently received by the agent. Theoretically, we provide the condition where BIFRL is superior to the baseline methods. Experimentally, we demonstrate that BIFRL acquires the better sample efficiency and produces the competitive asymptotic performance on various MuJoCo locomotion tasks compared against state-of-the-art model-based methods.

We examine global non-asymptotic convergence properties of policy gradient methods for multi-agent reinforcement learning (RL) problems in Markov potential games (MPG). To learn a Nash equilibrium of an MPG in which the size of state space and/or the number of players can be very large, we propose new independent policy gradient algorithms that are run by all players in tandem. When there is no uncertainty in the gradient evaluation, we show that our algorithm finds an $\epsilon$-Nash equilibrium with $O(1/\epsilon^2)$ iteration complexity which does not explicitly depend on the state space size. When the exact gradient is not available, we establish $O(1/\epsilon^5)$ sample complexity bound in a potentially infinitely large state space for a sample-based algorithm that utilizes function approximation. Moreover, we identify a class of independent policy gradient algorithms that enjoys convergence for both zero-sum Markov games and Markov cooperative games with the players that are oblivious to the types of games being played. Finally, we provide computational experiments to corroborate the merits and the effectiveness of our theoretical developments.

Neural vocoder using denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) has been improved by adaptation of the diffusion noise distribution to given acoustic features. In this study, we propose SpecGrad that adapts the diffusion noise so that its time-varying spectral envelope becomes close to the conditioning log-mel spectrogram. This adaptation by time-varying filtering improves the sound quality especially in the high-frequency bands. It is processed in the time-frequency domain to keep the computational cost almost the same as the conventional DDPM-based neural vocoders. Experimental results showed that SpecGrad generates higher-fidelity speech waveform than conventional DDPM-based neural vocoders in both analysis-synthesis and speech enhancement scenarios. Audio demos are available at wavegrad.github.io/specgrad/.

Kernel density estimation (KDE) is one of the most widely used nonparametric density estimation methods. The fact that it is a memory-based method, i.e., it uses the entire training data set for prediction, makes it unsuitable for most current big data applications. Several strategies, such as tree-based or hashing-based estimators, have been proposed to improve the efficiency of the kernel density estimation method. The novel density kernel density estimation method (DMKDE) uses density matrices, a quantum mechanical formalism, and random Fourier features, an explicit kernel approximation, to produce density estimates. This method has its roots in the KDE and can be considered as an approximation method, without its memory-based restriction. In this paper, we systematically evaluate the novel DMKDE algorithm and compare it with other state-of-the-art fast procedures for approximating the kernel density estimation method on different synthetic data sets. Our experimental results show that DMKDE is on par with its competitors for computing density estimates and advantages are shown when performed on high-dimensional data. We have made all the code available as an open source software repository.

Strong AI requires the learning engine to be task non-specific and to automatically construct a dynamic hierarchy of internal features. By hierarchy, we mean, e.g., short road edges and short bush edges amount to intermediate features of landmarks; but intermediate features from tree shadows are distractors that must be disregarded by the high-level landmark concept. By dynamic, we mean the automatic selection of features while disregarding distractors is not static, but instead based on dynamic statistics (e.g. because of the instability of shadows in the context of landmark). By internal features, we mean that they are not only sensory, but also motor, so that context from motor (state) integrates with sensory inputs to become a context-based logic machine. We present why strong AI is necessary for any practical AI systems that work reliably in the real world. We then present a new generation of Developmental Networks 2 (DN-2). With many new novelties beyond DN-1, the most important novelty of DN-2 is that the inhibition area of each internal neuron is neuron-specific and dynamic. This enables DN-2 to automatically construct an internal hierarchy that is fluid, whose number of areas is not static as in DN-1. To optimally use the limited resource available, we establish that DN-2 is optimal in terms of maximum likelihood, under the condition of limited learning experience and limited resources. We also present how DN-2 can learn an emergent Universal Turing Machine (UTM). Together with the optimality, we present the optimal UTM. Experiments for real-world vision-based navigation, maze planning, and audition used DN-2. They successfully showed that DN-2 is for general purposes using natural and synthetic inputs. Their automatically constructed internal representation focuses on important features while being invariant to distractors and other irrelevant context-concepts.