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 Uncertainty


A Transformational Characterization of Unconditionally Equivalent Bayesian Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider the problem of characterizing Bayesian networks up to unconditional equivalence, i.e., when directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) have the same set of unconditional d-separation statements. Each unconditional equivalence class (UEC) is uniquely represented with an undirected graph whose clique structure encodes the members of the class. Via this structure, we provide a transformational characterization of unconditional equivalence; i.e., we show that two DAGs are in the same UEC if and only if one can be transformed into the other via a finite sequence of specified moves. We also extend this characterization to the essential graphs representing the Markov equivalence classes (MECs) in the UEC. UECs partition the space of MECs and are easily estimable from marginal independence tests. Thus, a characterization of unconditional equivalence has applications in methods that involve searching the space of MECs of Bayesian networks. Keywords: unconditional equivalence; marginal independence structure; undirected graphs; directed acyclic graphs; chain graphs; Markov equivalence.


A Unified Comparison of User Modeling Techniques for Predicting Data Interaction and Detecting Exploration Bias

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract-- The visual analytics community has proposed several user modeling algorithms to capture and analyze users' interaction behavior in order to assist users in data exploration and insight generation. For example, some can detect exploration biases while others can predict data points that the user will interact with before that interaction occurs. Researchers believe this collection of algorithms can help create more intelligent visual analytics tools. However, the community lacks a rigorous evaluation and comparison of these existing techniques. As a result, there is limited guidance on which method to use and when. Our paper seeks to fill in this missing gap by comparing and ranking eight user modeling algorithms based on their performance on a diverse set of four user study datasets. We analyze exploration bias detection, data interaction prediction, and algorithmic complexity, among other measures. Based on our findings, we highlight open challenges and new directions for analyzing user interactions and visualization provenance. After surveying the body of work, we selected seven proposed Researchers in the visualization community have long viewed interaction techniques and standardized their input and output specifications to as an analytic discourse between the analyst and the visualization account for a variety of datasets. In addition to the selected models, system [40].


Wavelet Score-Based Generative Modeling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Score-based generative models (SGMs) synthesize new data samples from Gaussian white noise by running a time-reversed Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) whose drift coefficient depends on some probabilistic score. The discretization of such SDEs typically requires a large number of time steps and hence a high computational cost. This is because of ill-conditioning properties of the score that we analyze mathematically. We show that SGMs can be considerably accelerated, by factorizing the data distribution into a product of conditional probabilities of wavelet coefficients across scales. The resulting Wavelet Score-based Generative Model (WSGM) synthesizes wavelet coefficients with the same number of time steps at all scales, and its time complexity therefore grows linearly with the image size. This is proved mathematically over Gaussian distributions, and shown numerically over physical processes at phase transition and natural image datasets.


Cascade-based Echo Chamber Detection

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite echo chambers in social media have been under considerable scrutiny, general models for their detection and analysis are missing. In this work, we aim to fill this gap by proposing a probabilistic generative model that explains social media footprints -- i.e., social network structure and propagations of information -- through a set of latent communities, characterized by a degree of echo-chamber behavior and by an opinion polarity. Specifically, echo chambers are modeled as communities that are permeable to pieces of information with similar ideological polarity, and impermeable to information of opposed leaning: this allows discriminating echo chambers from communities that lack a clear ideological alignment. To learn the model parameters we propose a scalable, stochastic adaptation of the Generalized Expectation Maximization algorithm, that optimizes the joint likelihood of observing social connections and information propagation. Experiments on synthetic data show that our algorithm is able to correctly reconstruct ground-truth latent communities with their degree of echo-chamber behavior and opinion polarity. Experiments on real-world data about polarized social and political debates, such as the Brexit referendum or the COVID-19 vaccine campaign, confirm the effectiveness of our proposal in detecting echo chambers. Finally, we show how our model can improve accuracy in auxiliary predictive tasks, such as stance detection and prediction of future propagations.


Adaptive Target-Condition Neural Network: DNN-Aided Load Balancing for Hybrid LiFi and WiFi Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Load balancing (LB) is a challenging issue in the hybrid light fidelity (LiFi) and wireless fidelity (WiFi) networks (HLWNets), due to the nature of heterogeneous access points (APs). Machine learning has the potential to provide a complexity-friendly LB solution with near-optimal network performance, at the cost of a training process. The state-of-the-art (SOTA) learning-aided LB methods, however, need retraining when the network environment (especially the number of users) changes, significantly limiting its practicability. In this paper, a novel deep neural network (DNN) structure named adaptive target-condition neural network (A-TCNN) is proposed, which conducts AP selection for one target user upon the condition of other users. Also, an adaptive mechanism is developed to map a smaller number of users to a larger number through splitting their data rate requirements, without affecting the AP selection result for the target user. This enables the proposed method to handle different numbers of users without the need for retraining. Results show that A-TCNN achieves a network throughput very close to that of the testing dataset, with a gap less than 3%. It is also proven that A-TCNN can obtain a network throughput comparable to two SOTA benchmarks, while reducing the runtime by up to three orders of magnitude.


Classical Planning in Deep Latent Space

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

Current domain-independent, classical planners require symbolic models of the problem domain and instance as input, resulting in a knowledge acquisition bottleneck. Meanwhile, although deep learning has achieved significant success in many fields, the knowledge is encoded in a subsymbolic representation which is incompatible with symbolic systems such as planners. We propose Latplan, an unsupervised architecture combining deep learning and classical planning. Given only an unlabeled set of image pairs showing a subset of transitions allowed in the environment (training inputs), Latplan learns a complete propositional PDDL action model of the environment. Later, when a pair of images representing the initial and the goal states (planning inputs) is given, Latplan finds a plan to the goal state in a symbolic latent space and returns a visualized plan execution. We evaluate Latplan using image-based versions of 6 planning domains: 8-puzzle, 15-Puzzle, Blocksworld, Sokoban and Two variations of LightsOut.


Sparse Representation Learning with Modified q-VAE towards Minimal Realization of World Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Extraction of low-dimensional latent space from high-dimensional observation data is essential to construct a real-time robot controller with a world model on the extracted latent space. However, there is no established method for tuning the dimension size of the latent space automatically, suffering from finding the necessary and sufficient dimension size, i.e. the minimal realization of the world model. In this study, we analyze and improve Tsallis-based variational autoencoder (q-VAE), and reveal that, under an appropriate configuration, it always facilitates making the latent space sparse. Even if the dimension size of the pre-specified latent space is redundant compared to the minimal realization, this sparsification collapses unnecessary dimensions, allowing for easy removal of them. We experimentally verified the benefits of the sparsification by the proposed method that it can easily find the necessary and sufficient six dimensions for a reaching task with a mobile manipulator that requires a six-dimensional state space. Moreover, by planning with such a minimal-realization world model learned in the extracted dimensions, the proposed method was able to exert a more optimal action sequence in real-time, reducing the reaching accomplishment time by around 20 %. The attached video is uploaded on youtube: https://youtu.be/-QjITrnxaRs


Causality, Causal Discovery, and Causal Inference in Structural Engineering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Much of our experiments are designed to uncover the cause(s) and effect(s) behind a data generating mechanism (i.e., phenomenon) we happen to be interested in. Uncovering such relationships allows us to identify the true working of a phenomenon and, most importantly, articulate a model that may enable us to further explore the phenomenon on hand and/or allow us to predict it accurately. Fundamentally, such models are likely to be derived via a causal approach (as opposed to an observational or empirical mean). In this approach, causal discovery is required to create a causal model, which can then be applied to infer the influence of interventions, and answer any hypothetical questions (i.e., in the form of What ifs? Etc.) that we might have. This paper builds a case for causal discovery and causal inference and contrasts that against traditional machine learning approaches; all from a civil and structural engineering perspective. More specifically, this paper outlines the key principles of causality and the most commonly used algorithms and packages for causal discovery and causal inference. Finally, this paper also presents a series of examples and case studies of how causal concepts can be adopted for our domain.


EFI: A Toolbox for Feature Importance Fusion and Interpretation in Python

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper presents an open-source Python toolbox called Ensemble Feature Importance (EFI) to provide machine learning (ML) researchers, domain experts, and decision makers with robust and accurate feature importance quantification and more reliable mechanistic interpretation of feature importance for prediction problems using fuzzy sets. The toolkit was developed to address uncertainties in feature importance quantification and lack of trustworthy feature importance interpretation due to the diverse availability of machine learning algorithms, feature importance calculation methods, and dataset dependencies. EFI merges results from multiple machine learning models with different feature importance calculation approaches using data bootstrapping and decision fusion techniques, such as mean, majority voting and fuzzy logic. The main attributes of the EFI toolbox are: (i) automatic optimisation of ML algorithms, (ii) automatic computation of a set of feature importance coefficients from optimised ML algorithms and feature importance calculation techniques, (iii) automatic aggregation of importance coefficients using multiple decision fusion techniques, and (iv) fuzzy membership functions that show the importance of each feature to the prediction task. The key modules and functions of the toolbox are described, and a simple example of their application is presented using the popular Iris dataset.


Correcting Model Bias with Sparse Implicit Processes

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Model selection in machine learning (ML) is a crucial part of the Bayesian learning procedure. Model choice may impose strong biases on the resulting predictions, which can hinder the performance of methods such as Bayesian neural networks and neural samplers. On the other hand, newly proposed approaches for Bayesian ML exploit features of approximate inference in function space with implicit stochastic processes (a generalization of Gaussian processes). The approach of Sparse Implicit Processes (SIP) is particularly successful in this regard, since it is fully trainable and achieves flexible predictions. Here, we expand on the original experiments to show that SIP is capable of correcting model bias when the data generating mechanism differs strongly from the one implied by the model. We use synthetic datasets to show that SIP is capable of providing predictive distributions that reflect the data better than the exact predictions of the initial, but wrongly assumed model.