The problem of maximum likelihood decoding with a neural decoder for error-correcting code is considered. It is shown that the neural decoder can be improved with two novel loss terms on the node's activations. The first loss term imposes a sparse constraint on the node's activations. Whereas, the second loss term tried to mimic the node's activations from a teacher decoder which has better performance. The proposed method has the same run time complexity and model size as the neural Belief Propagation decoder, while improving the decoding performance by up to $1.1dB$ on BCH codes.

The electricity consumption of buildings composes a major part of the city's energy consumption. Electricity consumption forecasting enables the development of home energy management systems resulting in the future design of more sustainable houses and a decrease in total energy consumption. Energy performance in buildings is influenced by many factors like ambient temperature, humidity, and a variety of electrical devices. Therefore, multivariate prediction methods are preferred rather than univariate. The Honda Smart Home US data set was selected to compare three methods for minimizing forecasting errors, MAE and RMSE: Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Regression, and Fuzzy Rule-Based Systems for Regression by constructing many models for each method on a multivariate data set in different time terms. The comparison shows that SVR is a superior method over the alternatives.

Spoken language recognition (SLR) refers to the automatic process used to determine the language present in a speech sample. SLR is an important task in its own right, for example, as a tool to analyze or categorize large amounts of multi-lingual data. Further, it is also an essential tool for selecting downstream applications in a work flow, for example, to chose appropriate speech recognition or machine translation models. SLR systems are usually composed of two stages, one where an embedding representing the audio sample is extracted and a second one which computes the final scores for each language. In this work, we approach the SLR task as a detection problem and implement the second stage as a probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (PLDA) model. We show that discriminative training of the PLDA parameters gives large gains with respect to the usual generative training. Further, we propose a novel hierarchical approach where two PLDA models are trained, one to generate scores for clusters of highly-related languages and a second one to generate scores conditional to each cluster. The final language detection scores are computed as a combination of these two sets of scores. The complete model is trained discriminatively to optimize a cross-entropy objective. We show that this hierarchical approach consistently outperforms the non-hierarchical one for detection of highly related languages, in many cases by large margins. We train our systems on a collection of datasets including over 100 languages, and test them both on matched and mismatched conditions, showing that the gains are robust to condition mismatch.

Exact inference in Bayesian networks is intractable and has an exponential dependence on the size of the largest clique in the corresponding clique tree (CT), necessitating approximations. Factor based methods to bound clique sizes are more accurate than structure based methods, but expensive since they involve inference of beliefs in a large number of candidate structure or region graphs. We propose an alternative approach for approximate inference based on an incremental build-infer-approximate (IBIA) paradigm, which converts the Bayesian network into a data structure containing a sequence of linked clique tree forests (SLCTF), with clique sizes bounded by a user-specified value. In the incremental build stage of this approach, CTFs are constructed incrementally by adding variables to the CTFs as long as clique sizes are within the specified bound. Once the clique size constraint is reached, the CTs in the CTF are calibrated in the infer stage of IBIA. The resulting clique beliefs are used in the approximate phase to get an approximate CTF with reduced clique sizes. The approximate CTF forms the starting point for the next CTF in the sequence. These steps are repeated until all variables are added to a CTF in the sequence. We prove that our algorithm for incremental construction of clique trees always generates a valid CT and our approximation technique preserves the joint beliefs of the variables within a clique. Based on this, we show that the SLCTF data structure can be used for efficient approximate inference of partition function and prior and posterior marginals. More than 500 benchmarks were used to test the method and the results show a significant reduction in error when compared to other approximate methods, with competitive runtimes.

We propose a novel model selection algorithm based on a penalized maximum likelihood estimator (PMLE) for functional hidden dynamic geostatistical models (f-HDGM). These models employ a classic mixed-effect regression structure with embedded spatiotemporal dynamics to model georeferenced data observed in a functional domain. Thus, the parameters of interest are functions across this domain. The algorithm simultaneously selects the relevant spline basis functions and regressors that are used to model the fixed-effects relationship between the response variable and the covariates. In this way, it automatically shrinks to zero irrelevant parts of the functional coefficients or the entire effect of irrelevant regressors. The algorithm is based on iterative optimisation and uses an adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selector operator (LASSO) penalty function, wherein the weights are obtained by the unpenalised f-HDGM maximum-likelihood estimators. The computational burden of maximisation is drastically reduced by a local quadratic approximation of the likelihood. Through a Monte Carlo simulation study, we analysed the performance of the algorithm under different scenarios, including strong correlations among the regressors. We showed that the penalised estimator outperformed the unpenalised estimator in all the cases we considered. We applied the algorithm to a real case study in which the recording of the hourly nitrogen dioxide concentrations in the Lombardy region in Italy was modelled as a functional process with several weather and land cover covariates.

Extracting governing physics from data is a key challenge in many areas of science and technology. The existing techniques for equations discovery are dependent on both input and state measurements; however, in practice, we only have access to the output measurements only. We here propose a novel framework for learning governing physics of dynamical system from output only measurements; this essentially transfers the physics discovery problem from the deterministic to the stochastic domain. The proposed approach models the input as a stochastic process and blends concepts of stochastic calculus, sparse learning algorithms, and Bayesian statistics. In particular, we combine sparsity promoting spike and slab prior, Bayes law, and Euler Maruyama scheme to identify the governing physics from data. The resulting model is highly efficient and works with sparse, noisy, and incomplete output measurements. The efficacy and robustness of the proposed approach is illustrated on several numerical examples involving both complete and partial state measurements. The results obtained indicate the potential of the proposed approach in identifying governing physics from output only measurement.

Learning predictors that do not rely on spurious correlations involves building causal representations. However, learning such a representation is very challenging. We, therefore, formulate the problem of learning a causal representation from high dimensional data and study causal recovery with synthetic data. This work introduces a latent variable decoder model, Decoder BCD, for Bayesian causal discovery and performs experiments in mildly supervised and unsupervised settings. We present a series of synthetic experiments to characterize important factors for causal discovery and show that using known intervention targets as labels helps in unsupervised Bayesian inference over structure and parameters of linear Gaussian additive noise latent structural causal models.

We present local mappings that relate the marginal probabilities of a global probability mass function represented by its primal normal factor graph to the corresponding marginal probabilities in its dual normal factor graph. The mapping is based on the Fourier transform of the local factors of the models. Details of the mapping are provided for the Ising model, where it is proved that the local extrema of the fixed points are attained at the phase transition of the two-dimensional nearest-neighbor Ising model. The results are further extended to the Potts model, to the clock model, and to Gaussian Markov random fields. By employing the mapping, we can transform simultaneously all the estimated marginal probabilities from the dual domain to the primal domain (and vice versa), which is advantageous if estimating the marginals can be carried out more efficiently in the dual domain. An example of particular significance is the ferromagnetic Ising model in a positive external magnetic field. For this model, there exists a rapidly mixing Markov chain (called the subgraphs--world process) to generate configurations in the dual normal factor graph of the model. Our numerical experiments illustrate that the proposed procedure can provide more accurate estimates of marginal probabilities of a global probability mass function in various settings.

This paper studies probabilistic rates of convergence for consensus+innovations type of algorithms in random, generic networks. For each node, we find a lower and also a family of upper bounds on the large deviations rate function, thus enabling the computation of the exponential convergence rates for the events of interest on the iterates. Relevant applications include error exponents in distributed hypothesis testing, rates of convergence of beliefs in social learning, and inaccuracy rates in distributed estimation. The bounds on the rate function have a very particular form at each node: they are constructed as the convex envelope between the rate function of the hypothetical fusion center and the rate function corresponding to a certain topological mode of the node's presence. We further show tightness of the discovered bounds for several cases, such as pendant nodes and regular networks, thus establishing the first proof of the large deviations principle for consensus+innovations and social learning in random networks.

We consider learning Nash equilibria in two-player zero-sum Markov Games with nonlinear function approximation, where the action-value function is approximated by a function in a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS). The key challenge is how to do exploration in the high-dimensional function space. We propose a novel online learning algorithm to find a Nash equilibrium by minimizing the duality gap. At the core of our algorithms are upper and lower confidence bounds that are derived based on the principle of optimism in the face of uncertainty. We prove that our algorithm is able to attain an $O(\sqrt{T})$ regret with polynomial computational complexity, under very mild assumptions on the reward function and the underlying dynamic of the Markov Games. We also propose several extensions of our algorithm, including an algorithm with Bernstein-type bonus that can achieve a tighter regret bound, and another algorithm for model misspecification that can be applied to neural function approximation.