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 Uncertainty


Novel Ordering-based Approaches for Causal Structure Learning in the Presence of Unobserved Variables

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose ordering-based approaches for learning the maximal ancestral graph (MAG) of a structural equation model (SEM) up to its Markov equivalence class (MEC) in the presence of unobserved variables. Existing ordering-based methods in the literature recover a graph through learning a causal order (c-order). We advocate for a novel order called removable order (r-order) as they are advantageous over c-orders for structure learning. This is because r-orders are the minimizers of an appropriately defined optimization problem that could be either solved exactly (using a reinforcement learning approach) or approximately (using a hill-climbing search). Moreover, the r-orders (unlike c-orders) are invariant among all the graphs in a MEC and include c-orders as a subset. Given that set of r-orders is often significantly larger than the set of c-orders, it is easier for the optimization problem to find an r-order instead of a c-order. We evaluate the performance and the scalability of our proposed approaches on both real-world and randomly generated networks.


Granular Directed Rough Sets, Concept Organization and Soft Clustering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Up-directed rough sets are introduced and studied by the present author in earlier papers. This is extended by her in two different granular directions in this research, with a surprising algebraic semantics. The granules are based on ideas of generalized closure under up-directedness that may be read as a form of weak consequence. This yields approximation operators that satisfy cautious monotony, while pi-groupoidal approximations (that additionally involve strategic choice and algebraic operators) have nicer properties. The study is primarily motivated by possible structure of concepts in distributed cognition perspectives, real or virtual classroom learning contexts, and student-centric teaching. Rough clustering techniques for datasets that involve up-directed relations (as in the study of Sentinel project image data) are additionally proposed. This research is expected to see significant theoretical and practical applications in related domains.


Finite Sample Complexity of Sequential Monte Carlo Estimators on Multimodal Target Distributions

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Approximating integrals with respect to a complicated, highdimensional probability distribution π is an important problem spanning multiple disciplines, such as Bayesian statistical inference, machine learning, statistical physics, and theoretical computer science [13, 17]. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are a large class of stochastic approximation algorithms designed to solve these problems by combining Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods and resampling strategies to sequentially sample from a series of probability distributions. Some examples of SMC algorithms include population Monte Carlo methods [2], annealed importance sampling [27], sequential particle filters [3], and population annealing [40], among many others [15]. Closely related - but purely MCMC - methods include parallel tempering (PT) [14] and simulated tempering (ST) [23], which have been referred to as population-based MCMC methods [15]. An SMC sampler is generally constructed as follows.


Learning Linear Non-Gaussian Polytree Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the context of graphical causal discovery, we adapt the versatile framework of linear non-Gaussian acyclic models (LiNGAMs) to propose new algorithms to efficiently learn graphs that are polytrees. Our approach combines the Chow--Liu algorithm, which first learns the undirected tree structure, with novel schemes to orient the edges. The orientation schemes assess algebraic relations among moments of the data-generating distribution and are computationally inexpensive. We establish high-dimensional consistency results for our approach and compare different algorithmic versions in numerical experiments.


MaskBlock: Transferable Adversarial Examples with Bayes Approach

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The transferability of adversarial examples (AEs) across diverse models is of critical importance for black-box adversarial attacks, where attackers cannot access the information about black-box models. However, crafted AEs always present poor transferability. In this paper, by regarding the transferability of AEs as generalization ability of the model, we reveal that vanilla black-box attacks craft AEs via solving a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) problem. For MLE, the results probably are model-specific local optimum when available data is small, i.e., limiting the transferability of AEs. By contrast, we re-formulate crafting transferable AEs as the maximizing a posteriori probability estimation problem, which is an effective approach to boost the generalization of results with limited available data. Because Bayes posterior inference is commonly intractable, a simple yet effective method called MaskBlock is developed to approximately estimate. Moreover, we show that the formulated framework is a generalization version for various attack methods. Extensive experiments illustrate MaskBlock can significantly improve the transferability of crafted adversarial examples by up to about 20%.


Lattice Generalizations of the Concept of Fuzzy Numbers and Zadeh's Extension Principle

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The concept of a fuzzy number is generalized to the case of a finite carrier set of partially ordered elements, more precisely, a lattice, when a membership function also takes values in a partially ordered set (a lattice). Zadeh's extension principle for determining the degree of membership of a function of fuzzy numbers is corrected for this generalization. An analogue of the concept of mean value is also suggested. The use of partially ordered values in cognitive maps with comparison of expert assessments is considered.


A Gentle Introduction and Survey on Computing with Words (CWW) Methodologies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Human beings have an inherent capability to use linguistic information (LI) seamlessly even though it is vague and imprecise. Computing with Words (CWW) was proposed to impart computing systems with this capability of human beings. The interest in the field of CWW is evident from a number of publications on various CWW methodologies. These methodologies use different ways to model the semantics of the LI. However, to the best of our knowledge, the literature on these methodologies is mostly scattered and does not give an interested researcher a comprehensive but gentle guide about the notion and utility of these methodologies. Hence, to introduce the foundations and state-of-the-art CWW methodologies, we provide a concise but a wide-ranging coverage of them in a simple and easy to understand manner. We feel that the simplicity with which we give a high-quality review and introduction to the CWW methodologies is very useful for investigators, especially those embarking on the use of CWW for the first time. We also provide future research directions to build upon for the interested and motivated researchers.


A Variational AutoEncoder for Transformers with Nonparametric Variational Information Bottleneck

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Attention-based deep learning models, such as Transformers (Vaswani et al., 2017; Devlin et al., 2019), have achieved unprecedented empirical success in a wide range of cognitive tasks, in particular in natural language processing (NLP). On the other hand, deep variational Bayesian approaches to representation learning, such as variational autoencoders (VAEs) (Kingma and Welling, 2014), have also been very influential, especially due to their variational information bottleneck (VIB) (Alemi et al., 2017; Kingma and Welling, 2014) for regularising the induced latent representations. Previous VIB methods only apply to a vector space, and Transformers crucially do not use a single vector as their latent representation, instead using a set of vectors (Lin et al., 2020; Fang et al., 2021; Park and Lee, 2021). This allows the number of vectors in a Transformer embedding to grow with the size of the input, which is essential for embedding natural language text (Bahdanau et al., 2015), where the size of the input can range from a single word to thousands of words. In this paper, we propose a variational information bottleneck regulariser for set-of-vector latent representations, and use it to regularise the induced latent representation of a Transformer encoder-decoder variational autoencoder.


Multi-Model Probabilistic Programming

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Probabilistic programming makes it easy to represent a probabilistic model as a program. Building an individual model, however, is only one step of probabilistic modeling. The broader challenge of probabilistic modeling is in understanding and navigating spaces of alternative models. There is currently no good way to represent these spaces of alternative models, despite their central role. We present an extension of probabilistic programming that lets each program represent a network of interrelated probabilistic models. We give a formal semantics for these multi-model probabilistic programs, a collection of efficient algorithms for network-of-model operations, and an example implementation built on top of the popular probabilistic programming language Stan. This network-of-models representation opens many doors, including search and automation in model-space, tracking and communication of model development, and explicit modeler degrees of freedom to mitigate issues like p-hacking. We demonstrate automatic model search and model development tracking using our Stan implementation, and we propose many more possible applications.


Low-complexity Near-optimum Symbol Detection Based on Neural Enhancement of Factor Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider the application of the factor graph framework for symbol detection on linear inter-symbol interference channels. Based on the Ungerboeck observation model, a detection algorithm with appealing complexity properties can be derived. However, since the underlying factor graph contains cycles, the sum-product algorithm (SPA) yields a suboptimal algorithm. In this paper, we develop and evaluate efficient strategies to improve the performance of the factor graph-based symbol detection by means of neural enhancement. In particular, we consider neural belief propagation and generalizations of the factor nodes as an effective way to mitigate the effect of cycles within the factor graph. By applying a generic preprocessor to the channel output, we propose a simple technique to vary the underlying factor graph in every SPA iteration. Using this dynamic factor graph transition, we intend to preserve the extrinsic nature of the SPA messages which is otherwise impaired due to cycles. Simulation results show that the proposed methods can massively improve the detection performance, even approaching the maximum a posteriori performance for various transmission scenarios, while preserving a complexity which is linear in both the block length and the channel memory.