Uncertainty
Even vertex $\zeta$-graceful labeling on Rough Graph
Rough graph is the graphical structure of information system with imprecise knowledge. Tong He designed the properties of rough graph in 2006[6] and following that He and Shi introduced the notion of edge rough graph[7]. He et al developed the concept of weighted rough graph with weighted attributes[6]. In this paper, we introduce a new type of labeling called Even vertex {\zeta}- graceful labeling as weight value for edges. We investigate this labeling for some special graphs like rough path graph, rough cycle graph, rough comb graph, rough ladder graph and rough star graph.
Categoroids: Universal Conditional Independence
Conditional independence has been widely used in AI, causal inference, machine learning, and statistics. We introduce categoroids, an algebraic structure for characterizing universal properties of conditional independence. Categoroids are defined as a hybrid of two categories: one encoding a preordered lattice structure defined by objects and arrows between them; the second dual parameterization involves trigonoidal objects and morphisms defining a conditional independence structure, with bridge morphisms providing the interface between the binary and ternary structures. We illustrate categoroids using three well-known examples of axiom sets: graphoids, integer-valued multisets, and separoids. Functoroids map one categoroid to another, preserving the relationships defined by all three types of arrows in the co-domain categoroid. We describe a natural transformation across functoroids, which is natural across regular objects and trigonoidal objects, to construct universal representations of conditional independence.. We use adjunctions and monads between categoroids to abstractly characterize faithfulness of graphical and non-graphical representations of conditional independence.
Learning linear modules in a dynamic network with missing node observations
Ramaswamy, Karthik R., Bottegal, Giulio, Hof, Paul M. J. Van den
In order to identify a system (module) embedded in a dynamic network, one has to formulate a multiple-input estimation problem that necessitates certain nodes to be measured and included as predictor inputs. However, some of these nodes may not be measurable in many practical cases due to sensor selection and placement issues. This may result in biased estimates of the target module. Furthermore, the identification problem associated with the multiple-input structure may require determining a large number of parameters that are not of particular interest to the experimenter, with increased computational complexity in large-sized networks. In this paper, we tackle these problems by using a data augmentation strategy that allows us to reconstruct the missing node measurements and increase the accuracy of the estimated target module. To this end, we develop a system identification method using regularized kernel-based methods coupled with approximate inference methods. Keeping a parametric model for the module of interest, we model the other modules as Gaussian Processes (GP) with a kernel given by the so-called stable spline kernel. An Empirical Bayes (EB) approach is used to estimate the parameters of the target module. The related optimization problem is solved using an Expectation-Maximization (EM) method, where we employ a Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique to reconstruct the unknown missing node information and the network dynamics. Numerical simulations on dynamic network examples illustrate the potentials of the developed method.
Causal Entropy Optimization
Branchini, Nicola, Aglietti, Virginia, Dhir, Neil, Damoulas, Theodoros
We study the problem of globally optimizing the causal effect on a target variable of an unknown causal graph in which interventions can be performed. This problem arises in many areas of science including biology, operations research and healthcare. We propose Causal Entropy Optimization (CEO), a framework that generalizes Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO) to account for all sources of uncertainty, including the one arising from the causal graph structure. CEO incorporates the causal structure uncertainty both in the surrogate models for the causal effects and in the mechanism used to select interventions via an information-theoretic acquisition function. The resulting algorithm automatically trades-off structure learning and causal effect optimization, while naturally accounting for observation noise. For various synthetic and real-world structural causal models, CEO achieves faster convergence to the global optimum compared with CBO while also learning the graph. Furthermore, our joint approach to structure learning and causal optimization improves upon sequential, structure-learning-first approaches.
Understanding the Value of Bayesian Networks - DataScienceCentral.com
Machine learning algorithms are based on correlation โ they do not specify cause and effect relations. A Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical model representing a set of variables and their conditional dependencies via a directed acyclic graph (DAG). Bayesian networks are used for causal inference because they can consider an event and predict the likelihood of several causes that could contribute to the event's occurrence. For example, you could model a disease and its symptoms in a Bayesian network such that you could predict the disease given a set of symptoms. Bayesian networks are directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) whose nodes represent Bayesian variables (as observable quantities, latent variables, unknown parameters or hypotheses).
Cardinality-Regularized Hawkes-Granger Model
Idรฉ, Tsuyoshi, Kollias, Georgios, Phan, Dzung T., Abe, Naoki
We propose a new sparse Granger-causal learning framework for temporal event data. We focus on a specific class of point processes called the Hawkes process. We begin by pointing out that most of the existing sparse causal learning algorithms for the Hawkes process suffer from a singularity in maximum likelihood estimation. As a result, their sparse solutions can appear only as numerical artifacts. In this paper, we propose a mathematically well-defined sparse causal learning framework based on a cardinality-regularized Hawkes process, which remedies the pathological issues of existing approaches. We leverage the proposed algorithm for the task of instance-wise causal event analysis, where sparsity plays a critical role. We validate the proposed framework with two real use-cases, one from the power grid and the other from the cloud data center management domain.
Robust Bayesian Nonnegative Matrix Factorization with Implicit Regularizers
We introduce a probabilistic model with implicit norm regularization for learning nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) that is commonly used for predicting missing values and finding hidden patterns in the data, in which the matrix factors are latent variables associated with each data dimension. The nonnegativity constraint for the latent factors is handled by choosing priors with support on the nonnegative subspace, e.g., exponential density or distribution based on exponential function. Bayesian inference procedure based on Gibbs sampling is employed. We evaluate the model on several real-world datasets including Genomics of Drug Sensitivity in Cancer (GDSC $IC_{50}$) and Gene body methylation with different sizes and dimensions, and show that the proposed Bayesian NMF GL$_2^2$ and GL$_\infty$ models lead to robust predictions for different data values and avoid overfitting compared with competitive Bayesian NMF approaches.
Discovery and density estimation of latent confounders in Bayesian networks with evidence lower bound
Chobtham, Kiattikun, Constantinou, Anthony C.
Discovering and parameterising latent confounders represent important and challenging problems in causal structure learning and density estimation respectively. In this paper, we focus on both discovering and learning the distribution of latent confounders. This task requires solutions that come from different areas of statistics and machine learning. We combine elements of variational Bayesian methods, expectation-maximisation, hill-climbing search, and structure learning under the assumption of causal insufficiency. We propose two learning strategies; one that maximises model selection accuracy, and another that improves computational efficiency in exchange for minor reductions in accuracy. The former strategy is suitable for small networks and the latter for moderate size networks. Both learning strategies perform well relative to existing solutions. Keywords: Ancestral graphs; EM algorithm; greedy search; hill-climbing search; hidden variables; probabilistic graphical models; variational inference.
BigBraveBN: algorithm of structural learning for bayesian networks with a large number of nodes
Learning a Bayesian network is an NP-hard problem and with an increase in the number of nodes, classical algorithms for learning the structure of Bayesian networks become inefficient. In recent years, some methods and algorithms for learning Bayesian networks with a high number of nodes (more than 50) were developed. But these solutions have their disadvantages, for instance, they only operate one type of data (discrete or continuous) or their algorithm has been created to meet a specific nature of data (medical, social, etc.). The article presents a BigBraveBN algorithm for learning large Bayesian Networks with a high number of nodes (over 100). The algorithm utilizes the Brave coefficient that measures the mutual occurrence of instances in several groups. To form these groups, we use the method of nearest neighbours based on the Mutual information (MI) measure. In the experimental part of the article, we compare the performance of BigBraveBN to other existing solutions on multiple data sets both discrete and continuous. The experimental part also represents tests on real data. The aforementioned experimental results demonstrate the efficiency of the BigBraveBN algorithm in structure learning of Bayesian Networks.
Preventing Oversmoothing in VAE via Generalized Variance Parameterization
Takida, Yuhta, Liao, Wei-Hsiang, Lai, Chieh-Hsin, Uesaka, Toshimitsu, Takahashi, Shusuke, Mitsufuji, Yuki
Variational autoencoders (VAEs) often suffer from posterior collapse, which is a phenomenon in which the learned latent space becomes uninformative. This is often related to the hyperparameter resembling the data variance. It can be shown that an inappropriate choice of this hyperparameter causes the oversmoothness in the linearly approximated case and can be empirically verified for the general cases. Moreover, determining such appropriate choice becomes infeasible if the data variance is non-uniform or conditional. Therefore, we propose VAE extensions with generalized parameterizations of the data variance and incorporate maximum likelihood estimation into the objective function to adaptively regularize the decoder smoothness. The images generated from proposed VAE extensions show improved Fr\'echet inception distance (FID) on MNIST and CelebA datasets.