Uncertainty
Cognitive Architecture for Co-Evolutionary Hybrid Intelligence
Krinkin, Kirill, Shichkina, Yulia
This paper questions the feasibility of a strong (general) data-centric artificial intelligence (AI). The disadvantages of this type of intelligence are discussed. As an alternative, the concept of co-evolutionary hybrid intelligence is proposed. It is based on the cognitive interoperability of man and machine. An analysis of existing approaches to the construction of cognitive architectures is given. An architecture seamlessly incorporates a human into the loop of intelligent problem solving is considered. The article is organized as follows. The first part contains a critique of data-centric intelligent systems. The reasons why it is impossible to create a strong artificial intelligence based on this type of intelligence are indicated. The second part briefly presents the concept of co-evolutionary hybrid intelligence and shows its advantages. The third part gives an overview and analysis of existing cognitive architectures. It is concluded that many do not consider humans part of the intelligent data processing process. The next part discusses the cognitive architecture for co-evolutionary hybrid intelligence, providing integration with humans. It finishes with general conclusions about the feasibility of developing intelligent systems with humans in the problem-solving loop.
Investigating the Impact of Model Misspecification in Neural Simulation-based Inference
Cannon, Patrick, Ward, Daniel, Schmon, Sebastian M.
Aided by advances in neural density estimation, considerable progress has been made in recent years towards a suite of simulation-based inference (SBI) methods capable of performing flexible, black-box, approximate Bayesian inference for stochastic simulation models. While it has been demonstrated that neural SBI methods can provide accurate posterior approximations, the simulation studies establishing these results have considered only well-specified problems -- that is, where the model and the data generating process coincide exactly. However, the behaviour of such algorithms in the case of model misspecification has received little attention. In this work, we provide the first comprehensive study of the behaviour of neural SBI algorithms in the presence of various forms of model misspecification. We find that misspecification can have a profoundly deleterious effect on performance. Some mitigation strategies are explored, but no approach tested prevents failure in all cases. We conclude that new approaches are required to address model misspecification if neural SBI algorithms are to be relied upon to derive accurate scientific conclusions.
Trust in Language Grounding: a new AI challenge for human-robot teams
Bossens, David M., Evers, Christine
The challenge of language grounding is to fully understand natural language by grounding language in real-world referents. While AI techniques are available, the widespread adoption and effectiveness of such technologies for human-robot teams relies critically on user trust. This survey provides three contributions relating to the newly emerging field of trust in language grounding, including a) an overview of language grounding research in terms of AI technologies, data sets, and user interfaces; b) six hypothesised trust factors relevant to language grounding, which are tested empirically on a human-robot cleaning team; and c) future research directions for trust in language grounding.
Ensemble of Pre-Trained Neural Networks for Segmentation and Quality Detection of Transmission Electron Microscopy Images
Baskaran, Arun, Lin, Yulin, Wen, Jianguo, Chan, Maria K. Y.
Automated analysis of electron microscopy datasets poses multiple challenges, such as limitation in the size of the training dataset, variation in data distribution induced by variation in sample quality and experiment conditions, etc. It is crucial for the trained model to continue to provide acceptable segmentation/classification performance on new data, and quantify the uncertainty associated with its predictions. Among the broad applications of machine learning, various approaches have been adopted to quantify uncertainty, such as Bayesian modeling, Monte Carlo dropout, ensembles, etc. With the aim of addressing the challenges specific to the data domain of electron microscopy, two different types of ensembles of pre-trained neural networks were implemented in this work. The ensembles performed semantic segmentation of ice crystal within a two-phase mixture, thereby tracking its phase transformation to water. The first ensemble (EA) is composed of U-net style networks having different underlying architectures, whereas the second series of ensembles (ER-i) are composed of randomly initialized U-net style networks, wherein each base learner has the same underlying architecture 'i'. The encoders of the base learners were pre-trained on the Imagenet dataset. The performance of EA and ER were evaluated on three different metrics: accuracy, calibration, and uncertainty. It is seen that EA exhibits a greater classification accuracy and is better calibrated, as compared to ER. While the uncertainty quantification of these two types of ensembles are comparable, the uncertainty scores exhibited by ER were found to be dependent on the specific architecture of its base member ('i') and not consistently better than EA. Thus, the challenges posed for the analysis of electron microscopy datasets appear to be better addressed by an ensemble design like EA, as compared to an ensemble design like ER.
No Free Lunch Theorem for Security and Utility in Federated Learning
Zhang, Xiaojin, Gu, Hanlin, Fan, Lixin, Chen, Kai, Yang, Qiang
In a federated learning scenario where multiple parties jointly learn a model from their respective data, there exist two conflicting goals for the choice of appropriate algorithms. On one hand, private and sensitive training data must be kept secure as much as possible in the presence of \textit{semi-honest} partners, while on the other hand, a certain amount of information has to be exchanged among different parties for the sake of learning utility. Such a challenge calls for the privacy-preserving federated learning solution, which maximizes the utility of the learned model and maintains a provable privacy guarantee of participating parties' private data. This article illustrates a general framework that a) formulates the trade-off between privacy loss and utility loss from a unified information-theoretic point of view, and b) delineates quantitative bounds of privacy-utility trade-off when different protection mechanisms including Randomization, Sparsity, and Homomorphic Encryption are used. It was shown that in general \textit{there is no free lunch for the privacy-utility trade-off} and one has to trade the preserving of privacy with a certain degree of degraded utility. The quantitative analysis illustrated in this article may serve as the guidance for the design of practical federated learning algorithms.
Bayesian Low-rank Matrix Completion with Dual-graph Embedding: Prior Analysis and Tuning-free Inference
Chen, Yangge, Cheng, Lei, Wu, Yik-Chung
Recently, there is a revival of interest in low-rank matrix completion-based unsupervised learning through the lens of dual-graph regularization, which has significantly improved the performance of multidisciplinary machine learning tasks such as recommendation systems, genotype imputation and image inpainting. While the dual-graph regularization contributes a major part of the success, computational costly hyper-parameter tunning is usually involved. To circumvent such a drawback and improve the completion performance, we propose a novel Bayesian learning algorithm that automatically learns the hyper-parameters associated with dual-graph regularization, and at the same time, guarantees the low-rankness of matrix completion. Notably, a novel prior is devised to promote the low-rankness of the matrix and encode the dual-graph information simultaneously, which is more challenging than the single-graph counterpart. A nontrivial conditional conjugacy between the proposed priors and likelihood function is then explored such that an efficient algorithm is derived under variational inference framework. Extensive experiments using synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of the proposed learning algorithm for various data analysis tasks.
Bayesian Neural Network Inference via Implicit Models and the Posterior Predictive Distribution
Dabrowski, Joel Janek, Pagendam, Daniel Edward
We propose a novel approach to perform approximate Bayesian inference in complex models such as Bayesian neural networks. The approach is more scalable to large data than Markov Chain Monte Carlo, it embraces more expressive models than Variational Inference, and it does not rely on adversarial training (or density ratio estimation). We adopt the recent approach of constructing two models: (1) a primary model, tasked with performing regression or classification; and (2) a secondary, expressive (e.g. implicit) model that defines an approximate posterior distribution over the parameters of the primary model. However, we optimise the parameters of the posterior model via gradient descent according to a Monte Carlo estimate of the posterior predictive distribution -- which is our only approximation (other than the posterior model). Only a likelihood needs to be specified, which can take various forms such as loss functions and synthetic likelihoods, thus providing a form of a likelihood-free approach. Furthermore, we formulate the approach such that the posterior samples can either be independent of, or conditionally dependent upon the inputs to the primary model. The latter approach is shown to be capable of increasing the apparent complexity of the primary model. We see this being useful in applications such as surrogate and physics-based models. To promote how the Bayesian paradigm offers more than just uncertainty quantification, we demonstrate: uncertainty quantification, multi-modality, as well as an application with a recent deep forecasting neural network architecture.
ProBoost: a Boosting Method for Probabilistic Classifiers
Mendonรงa, Fรกbio, Mostafa, Sheikh Shanawaz, Morgado-Dias, Fernando, Ravelo-Garcรญa, Antonio G., Figueiredo, Mรกrio A. T.
ProBoost, a new boosting algorithm for probabilistic classifiers, is proposed in this work. This algorithm uses the epistemic uncertainty of each training sample to determine the most challenging/uncertain ones; the relevance of these samples is then increased for the next weak learner, producing a sequence that progressively focuses on the samples found to have the highest uncertainty. In the end, the weak learners' outputs are combined into a weighted ensemble of classifiers. Three methods are proposed to manipulate the training set: undersampling, oversampling, and weighting the training samples according to the uncertainty estimated by the weak learners. Furthermore, two approaches are studied regarding the ensemble combination. The weak learner herein considered is a standard convolutional neural network, and the probabilistic models underlying the uncertainty estimation use either variational inference or Monte Carlo dropout. The experimental evaluation carried out on MNIST benchmark datasets shows that ProBoost yields a significant performance improvement. The results are further highlighted by assessing the relative achievable improvement, a metric proposed in this work, which shows that a model with only four weak learners leads to an improvement exceeding 12% in this metric (for either accuracy, sensitivity, or specificity), in comparison to the model learned without ProBoost.
Conditional Independence Testing via Latent Representation Learning
Detecting conditional independencies plays a key role in several statistical and machine learning tasks, especially in causal discovery algorithms. In this study, we introduce LCIT (Latent representation based Conditional Independence Test)-a novel non-parametric method for conditional independence testing based on representation learning. Our main contribution involves proposing a generative framework in which to test for the independence between X and Y given Z, we first learn to infer the latent representations of target variables X and Y that contain no information about the conditioning variable Z. The latent variables are then investigated for any significant remaining dependencies, which can be performed using the conventional partial correlation test. The empirical evaluations show that LCIT outperforms several state-of-the-art baselines consistently under different evaluation metrics, and is able to adapt really well to both non-linear and high-dimensional settings on a diverse collection of synthetic and real data sets.
Generative Modeling via Tree Tensor Network States
Tang, Xun, Hur, Yoonhaeng, Khoo, Yuehaw, Ying, Lexing
In this paper, we present a density estimation framework based on tree tensor-network states. The proposed method consists of determining the tree topology with Chow-Liu algorithm, and obtaining a linear system of equations that defines the tensor-network components via sketching techniques. Novel choices of sketch functions are developed in order to consider graphical models that contain loops. Sample complexity guarantees are provided and further corroborated by numerical experiments.