Mobile health (mHealth) apps, such as menstrual trackers, provide a rich source of self-reported observations: they provide day-to-day health indicators and behaviors, which can help shed light onto an individual's wellness and health over time. However, self-tracked data collected via mHealth apps have questionable reliability, as they hinge on user adherence. Because mHealth app users may skip tracking relevant health information, disentangling physiological patterns from tracking behaviors is necessary. In this talk, I will describe how probabilistic machine learning can provide robust predictive models of self-tracking data in the context of women's health in general, and the menstrual cycle in particular. Namely, I will present statistical generative models that accommodate mHealth self-tracked variables that are subject to per-user missingness patterns, to provide personalized and accurate predictions of next cycle start date.

Data quality is the key factor for the development of trustworthy AI in healthcare. A large volume of curated datasets with controlled confounding factors can help improve the accuracy, robustness and privacy of downstream AI algorithms. However, access to good quality datasets is limited by the technical difficulty of data acquisition and large-scale sharing of healthcare data is hindered by strict ethical restrictions. Data synthesis algorithms, which generate data with a similar distribution as real clinical data, can serve as a potential solution to address the scarcity of good quality data during the development of trustworthy AI. However, state-of-the-art data synthesis algorithms, especially deep learning algorithms, focus more on imaging data while neglecting the synthesis of non-imaging healthcare data, including clinical measurements, medical signals and waveforms, and electronic healthcare records (EHRs). Thus, in this paper, we will review the synthesis algorithms, particularly for non-imaging medical data, with the aim of providing trustworthy AI in this domain. This tutorial-styled review paper will provide comprehensive descriptions of non-imaging medical data synthesis on aspects including algorithms, evaluations, limitations and future research directions.

Heterogeneous big data poses many challenges in machine learning. Its enormous scale, high dimensionality, and inherent uncertainty make almost every aspect of machine learning difficult, from providing enough processing power to maintaining model accuracy to protecting privacy. However, perhaps the most imposing problem is that big data is often interspersed with sensitive personal data. Hence, we propose a privacy-preserving hierarchical fuzzy neural network (PP-HFNN) to address these technical challenges while also alleviating privacy concerns. The network is trained with a two-stage optimization algorithm, and the parameters at low levels of the hierarchy are learned with a scheme based on the well-known alternating direction method of multipliers, which does not reveal local data to other agents. Coordination at high levels of the hierarchy is handled by the alternating optimization method, which converges very quickly. The entire training procedure is scalable, fast and does not suffer from gradient vanishing problems like the methods based on back-propagation. Comprehensive simulations conducted on both regression and classification tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Domain generalization (DG) aims to learn a model on several source domains, hoping that the model can generalize well to unseen target domains. The distribution shift between domains contains the covariate shift and conditional shift, both of which the model must be able to handle for better generalizability. In this paper, a novel DG method is proposed to deal with the distribution shift via Visual Alignment and Uncertainty-guided belief Ensemble (VAUE). Specifically, for the covariate shift, a visual alignment module is designed to align the distribution of image style to a common empirical Gaussian distribution so that the covariate shift can be eliminated in the visual space. For the conditional shift, we adopt an uncertainty-guided belief ensemble strategy based on the subjective logic and Dempster-Shafer theory. The conditional distribution given a test sample is estimated by the dynamic combination of that of source domains. Comprehensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed method on four widely used datasets, i.e., Office-Home, VLCS, TerraIncognita, and PACS.

Predictions and forecasts of machine learning models should take the form of probability distributions, aiming to increase the quantity of information communicated to end users. Although applications of probabilistic prediction and forecasting with machine learning models in academia and industry are becoming more frequent, related concepts and methods have not been formalized and structured under a holistic view of the entire field. Here, we review the topic of predictive uncertainty estimation with machine learning algorithms, as well as the related metrics (consistent scoring functions and proper scoring rules) for assessing probabilistic predictions. The review covers a time period spanning from the introduction of early statistical (linear regression and time series models, based on Bayesian statistics or quantile regression) to recent machine learning algorithms (including generalized additive models for location, scale and shape, random forests, boosting and deep learning algorithms) that are more flexible by nature. The review of the progress in the field, expedites our understanding on how to develop new algorithms tailored to users' needs, since the latest advancements are based on some fundamental concepts applied to more complex algorithms. We conclude by classifying the material and discussing challenges that are becoming a hot topic of research.

The random Fourier features (RFFs) method is a powerful and popular technique in kernel approximation for scalability of kernel methods. The theoretical foundation of RFFs is based on the Bochner theorem that relates symmetric, positive definite (PD) functions to probability measures. This condition naturally excludes asymmetric functions with a wide range applications in practice, e.g., directed graphs, conditional probability, and asymmetric kernels. Nevertheless, understanding asymmetric functions (kernels) and its scalability via RFFs is unclear both theoretically and empirically. In this paper, we introduce a complex measure with the real and imaginary parts corresponding to four finite positive measures, which expands the application scope of the Bochner theorem. By doing so, this framework allows for handling classical symmetric, PD kernels via one positive measure; symmetric, non-positive definite kernels via signed measures; and asymmetric kernels via complex measures, thereby unifying them into a general framework by RFFs, named AsK-RFFs. Such approximation scheme via complex measures enjoys theoretical guarantees in the perspective of the uniform convergence. In algorithmic implementation, to speed up the kernel approximation process, which is expensive due to the calculation of total mass, we employ a subset-based fast estimation method that optimizes total masses on a sub-training set, which enjoys computational efficiency in high dimensions. Our AsK-RFFs method is empirically validated on several typical large-scale datasets and achieves promising kernel approximation performance, which demonstrate the effectiveness of AsK-RFFs.

With the wide spread of sensors and smart devices in recent years, the data generation speed of the Internet of Things (IoT) systems has increased dramatically. In IoT systems, massive volumes of data must be processed, transformed, and analyzed on a frequent basis to enable various IoT services and functionalities. Machine Learning (ML) approaches have shown their capacity for IoT data analytics. However, applying ML models to IoT data analytics tasks still faces many difficulties and challenges, specifically, effective model selection, design/tuning, and updating, which have brought massive demand for experienced data scientists. Additionally, the dynamic nature of IoT data may introduce concept drift issues, causing model performance degradation. To reduce human efforts, Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) has become a popular field that aims to automatically select, construct, tune, and update machine learning models to achieve the best performance on specified tasks. In this paper, we conduct a review of existing methods in the model selection, tuning, and updating procedures in the area of AutoML in order to identify and summarize the optimal solutions for every step of applying ML algorithms to IoT data analytics. To justify our findings and help industrial users and researchers better implement AutoML approaches, a case study of applying AutoML to IoT anomaly detection problems is conducted in this work. Lastly, we discuss and classify the challenges and research directions for this domain.

Most real-world problems that machine learning algorithms are expected to solve face the situation with 1) unknown data distribution; 2) little domain-specific knowledge; and 3) datasets with limited annotation. We propose Non-Parametric learning by Compression with Latent Variables (NPC-LV), a learning framework for any dataset with abundant unlabeled data but very few labeled ones. By only training a generative model in an unsupervised way, the framework utilizes the data distribution to build a compressor. Using a compressor-based distance metric derived from Kolmogorov complexity, together with few labeled data, NPC-LV classifies without further training. We show that NPC-LV outperforms supervised methods on all three datasets on image classification in low data regime and even outperform semi-supervised learning methods on CIFAR-10. We demonstrate how and when negative evidence lowerbound (nELBO) can be used as an approximate compressed length for classification. By revealing the correlation between compression rate and classification accuracy, we illustrate that under NPC-LV, the improvement of generative models can enhance downstream classification accuracy.

Research on human reading has long documented that reading behavior shows task-specific effects, but it has been challenging to build general models predicting what reading behavior humans will show in a given task. We introduce NEAT, a computational model of the allocation of attention in human reading, based on the hypothesis that human reading optimizes a tradeoff between economy of attention and success at a task. Our model is implemented using contemporary neural network modeling techniques, and makes explicit and testable predictions about how the allocation of attention varies across different tasks. We test this in an eyetracking study comparing two versions of a reading comprehension task, finding that our model successfully accounts for reading behavior across the tasks. Our work thus provides evidence that task effects can be modeled as optimal adaptation to task demands.

Density of the reachable states can help understand the risk of safety-critical systems, especially in situations when worst-case reachability is too conservative. Recent work provides a data-driven approach to compute the density distribution of autonomous systems' forward reachable states online. In this paper, we study the use of such approach in combination with model predictive control for verifiable safe path planning under uncertainties. We first use the learned density distribution to compute the risk of collision online. If such risk exceeds the acceptable threshold, our method will plan for a new path around the previous trajectory, with the risk of collision below the threshold. Our method is well-suited to handle systems with uncertainties and complicated dynamics as our data-driven approach does not need an analytical form of the systems' dynamics and can estimate forward state density with an arbitrary initial distribution of uncertainties. We design two challenging scenarios (autonomous driving and hovercraft control) for safe motion planning in environments with obstacles under system uncertainties. We first show that our density estimation approach can reach a similar accuracy as the Monte-Carlo-based method while using only 0.01X training samples. By leveraging the estimated risk, our algorithm achieves the highest success rate in goal reaching when enforcing the safety rate above 0.99.