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 Uncertainty


INFINITY: A Simple Yet Effective Unsupervised Framework for Graph-Text Mutual Conversion

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Graph-to-text (G2T) generation and text-to-graph (T2G) triple extraction are two essential tasks for constructing and applying knowledge graphs. Existing unsupervised approaches turn out to be suitable candidates for jointly learning the two tasks due to their avoidance of using graph-text parallel data. However, they are composed of multiple modules and still require both entity information and relation type in the training process. To this end, we propose INFINITY, a simple yet effective unsupervised approach that does not require external annotation tools or additional parallel information. It achieves fully unsupervised graph-text mutual conversion for the first time. Specifically, INFINITY treats both G2T and T2G as a bidirectional sequence generation task by fine-tuning only one pretrained seq2seq model. A novel back-translation-based framework is then designed to automatically generate continuous synthetic parallel data. To obtain reasonable graph sequences with structural information from source texts, INFINITY employs reward-based training loss by leveraging the advantage of reward augmented maximum likelihood. As a fully unsupervised framework, INFINITY is empirically verified to outperform state-of-the-art baselines for G2T and T2G tasks.


Explaining Deep Tractable Probabilistic Models: The sum-product network case

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider the problem of explaining a class of tractable deep probabilistic models, the Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) and present an algorithm EX SPN to generate explanations. To this effect, we define the notion of a context-specific independence tree(CSI-tree) and present an iterative algorithm that converts an SPN to a CSI-tree. The resulting CSI-tree is both interpretable and explainable to the domain expert. We achieve this by extracting the conditional independencies encoded by the SPN and approximating the local context specified by the structure of the SPN. Our extensive empirical evaluations on synthetic, standard, and real-world clinical data sets demonstrate that the CSI-tree exhibits superior explainability.


A Systematic Literature Review of Soft Computing Techniques for Software Maintainability Prediction: State-of-the-Art, Challenges and Future Directions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The software is changing rapidly with the invention of advanced technologies and methodologies. The ability to rapidly and successfully upgrade software in response to changing business requirements is more vital than ever. For the long-term management of software products, measuring software maintainability is crucial. The use of soft computing techniques for software maintainability prediction has shown immense promise in software maintenance process by providing accurate prediction of software maintainability. To better understand the role of soft computing techniques for software maintainability prediction, we aim to provide a systematic literature review of soft computing techniques for software maintainability prediction. Firstly, we provide a detailed overview of software maintainability. Following this, we explore the fundamentals of software maintainability and the reasons for adopting soft computing methodologies for predicting software maintainability. Later, we examine the soft computing approaches employed in the process of software maintainability prediction. Furthermore, we discuss the difficulties and potential solutions associated with the use of soft computing techniques to predict software maintainability. Finally, we conclude the review with some promising future directions to drive further research innovations and developments in this promising area.


Improved Marginal Unbiased Score Expansion (MUSE) via Implicit Differentiation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We apply the technique of implicit differentiation to boost performance, reduce numerical error, and remove required user-tuning in the Marginal Unbiased Score Expansion (MUSE) algorithm for hierarchical Bayesian inference. We demonstrate these improvements on three representative inference problems: 1) an extended Neal's funnel 2) Bayesian neural networks, and 3) probabilistic principal component analysis. On our particular test cases, MUSE with implicit differentiation is faster than Hamiltonian Monte Carlo by factors of 155, 397, and 5, respectively, or factors of 65, 278, and 1 without implicit differentiation, and yields good approximate marginal posteriors. The Julia and Python MUSE packages have been updated to use implicit differentiation, and can solve problems defined by hand or with any of a number of popular probabilistic programming languages and automatic differentiation backends.


Inference and Sampling for Archimax Copulas

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Understanding multivariate dependencies in both the bulk and the tails of a distribution is an important problem for many applications, such as ensuring algorithms are robust to observations that are infrequent but have devastating effects. Archimax copulas are a family of distributions endowed with a precise representation that allows simultaneous modeling of the bulk and the tails of a distribution. Rather than separating the two as is typically done in practice, incorporating additional information from the bulk may improve inference of the tails, where observations are limited. Building on the stochastic representation of Archimax copulas, we develop a non-parametric inference method and sampling algorithm. Our proposed methods, to the best of our knowledge, are the first that allow for highly flexible and scalable inference and sampling algorithms, enabling the increased use of Archimax copulas in practical settings. We experimentally compare to state-of-the-art density modeling techniques, and the results suggest that the proposed method effectively extrapolates to the tails while scaling to higher dimensional data. Our findings suggest that the proposed algorithms can be used in a variety of applications where understanding the interplay between the bulk and the tails of a distribution is necessary, such as healthcare and safety.


On resolving conflicts between arguments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Argument systems are based on the idea that one can construct arguments for propositions; i.e., structured reasons justifying the belief in a proposition. Using defeasible rules, arguments need not be valid in all circumstances, therefore, it might be possible to construct an argument for a proposition as well as its negation. When arguments support conflicting propositions, one of the arguments must be defeated, which raises the question of \emph{which (sub-)arguments can be subject to defeat}? In legal argumentation, meta-rules determine the valid arguments by considering the last defeasible rule of each argument involved in a conflict. Since it is easier to evaluate arguments using their last rules, \emph{can a conflict be resolved by considering only the last defeasible rules of the arguments involved}? We propose a new argument system where, instead of deriving a defeat relation between arguments, \emph{undercutting-arguments} for the defeat of defeasible rules are constructed. This system allows us, (\textit{i}) to resolve conflicts (a generalization of rebutting arguments) using only the last rules of the arguments for inconsistencies, (\textit{ii}) to determine a set of valid (undefeated) arguments in linear time using an algorithm based on a JTMS, (\textit{iii}) to establish a relation with Default Logic, and (\textit{iv}) to prove closure properties such as \emph{cumulativity}. We also propose an extension of the argument system that enables \emph{reasoning by cases}.


Motion Planning Under Uncertainty with Complex Agents and Environments via Hybrid Search

Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research

As autonomous systems and robots are applied to more real world situations, they must reason about uncertainty when planning actions. Mission success oftentimes cannot be guaranteed and the planner must reason about the probability of failure. Unfortunately, computing a trajectory that satisfies mission goals while constraining the probability of failure is difficult because of the need to reason about complex, multidimensional probability distributions. Recent methods have seen success using chance-constrained, model-based planning. However, the majority of these methods can only handle simple environment and agent models. We argue that there are two main drawbacks of current approaches to goal-directed motion planning under uncertainty. First, current methods suffer from an inability to deal with expressive environment models such as 3D non-convex obstacles. Second, most planners rely on considerable simplifications when computing trajectory risk including approximating the agentโ€™s dynamics, geometry, and uncertainty. In this article, we apply hybrid search to the risk-bound, goal-directed planning problem. The hybrid search consists of a region planner and a trajectory planner. The region planner makes discrete choices by reasoning about geometric regions that the autonomous agent should visit in order to accomplish its mission. In formulating the region planner, we propose landmark regions that help produce obstacle-free paths. The region planner passes paths through the environment to a trajectory planner; the task of the trajectory planner is to optimize trajectories that respect the agentโ€™s dynamics and the userโ€™s desired risk of mission failure. We discuss three approaches to modeling trajectory risk: a CDF-based approach, a sampling-based collocation method, and an algorithm named Shooting Method Monte Carlo. These models allow computation of trajectory risk with more complex environments, agent dynamics, geometries, and models of uncertainty than past approaches. A variety of 2D and 3D test cases are presented including a linear case, a Dubins car model, and an underwater autonomous vehicle. The method is shown to outperform other methods in terms of speed and utility of the solution. Additionally, the models of trajectory risk are shown to better approximate risk in simulation.


On minimax density estimation via measure transport

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We study the convergence properties, in Hellinger and related distances, of nonparametric density estimators based on measure transport. These estimators represent the measure of interest as the pushforward of a chosen reference distribution under a transport map, where the map is chosen via a maximum likelihood objective (equivalently, minimizing an empirical Kullback-Leibler loss) or a penalized version thereof. We establish concentration inequalities for a general class of penalized measure transport estimators, by combining techniques from M-estimation with analytical properties of the transport-based density representation. We then demonstrate the implications of our theory for the case of triangular Knothe-Rosenblatt (KR) transports on the $d$-dimensional unit cube, and show that both penalized and unpenalized versions of such estimators achieve minimax optimal convergence rates over H\"older classes of densities. Specifically, we establish optimal rates for unpenalized nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation over bounded H\"older-type balls, and then for certain Sobolev-penalized estimators and sieved wavelet estimators.


Calibrated and Sharp Uncertainties in Deep Learning via Density Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate probabilistic predictions can be characterized by two properties -- calibration and sharpness. However, standard maximum likelihood training yields models that are poorly calibrated and thus inaccurate -- a 90% confidence interval typically does not contain the true outcome 90% of the time. This paper argues that calibration is important in practice and is easy to maintain by performing low-dimensional density estimation. We introduce a simple training procedure based on recalibration that yields calibrated models without sacrificing overall performance; unlike previous approaches, ours ensures the most general property of distribution calibration and applies to any model, including neural networks. We formally prove the correctness of our procedure assuming that we can estimate densities in low dimensions and we establish uniform convergence bounds. Our results yield empirical performance improvements on linear and deep Bayesian models and suggest that calibration should be increasingly leveraged across machine learning.


Semi-Supervised Imitation Learning of Team Policies from Suboptimal Demonstrations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present Bayesian Team Imitation Learner (BTIL), an imitation learning algorithm to model the behavior of teams performing sequential tasks in Markovian domains. In contrast to existing multi-agent imitation learning techniques, BTIL explicitly models and infers the time-varying mental states of team members, thereby enabling learning of decentralized team policies from demonstrations of suboptimal teamwork. Further, to allow for sample- and label-efficient policy learning from small datasets, BTIL employs a Bayesian perspective and is capable of learning from semi-supervised demonstrations. We demonstrate and benchmark the performance of BTIL on synthetic multi-agent tasks as well as a novel dataset of human-agent teamwork. Our experiments show that BTIL can successfully learn team policies from demonstrations despite the influence of team members' (time-varying and potentially misaligned) mental states on their behavior.