The concept of small modular reactor has changed the outlook for tackling future energy crises. This new reactor technology is very promising considering its lower investment requirements, modularity, design simplicity, and enhanced safety features. The application of artificial intelligence-driven multi-scale modeling (neutronics, thermal hydraulics, fuel performance, etc.) incorporating Digital Twin and associated uncertainties in the research of small modular reactors is a recent concept. In this work, a comprehensive study is conducted on the multiscale modeling of accident-tolerant fuels. The application of these fuels in the light water-based small modular reactors is explored. This chapter also focuses on the application of machine learning and artificial intelligence in the design optimization, control, and monitoring of small modular reactors. Finally, a brief assessment of the research gap on the application of artificial intelligence to the development of high burnup composite accident-tolerant fuels is provided. Necessary actions to fulfill these gaps are also discussed.

We introduce a simulation-based, amortised Bayesian inference scheme to infer the parameters of random walks. Our approach learns the posterior distribution of the walks' parameters with a likelihood-free method. In the first step a graph neural network is trained on simulated data to learn optimized low-dimensional summary statistics of the random walk. In the second step an invertible neural network generates the posterior distribution of the parameters from the learnt summary statistics using variational inference. We apply our method to infer the parameters of the fractional Brownian motion model from single trajectories. The computational complexity of the amortized inference procedure scales linearly with trajectory length, and its precision scales similarly to the Cram{\'e}r-Rao bound over a wide range of lengths. The approach is robust to positional noise, and generalizes well to trajectories longer than those seen during training. Finally, we adapt this scheme to show that a finite decorrelation time in the environment can furthermore be inferred from individual trajectories.

Forecast combinations have flourished remarkably in the forecasting community and, in recent years, have become part of the mainstream of forecasting research and activities. Combining multiple forecasts produced from single (target) series is now widely used to improve accuracy through the integration of information gleaned from different sources, thereby mitigating the risk of identifying a single "best" forecast. Combination schemes have evolved from simple combination methods without estimation, to sophisticated methods involving time-varying weights, nonlinear combinations, correlations among components, and cross-learning. They include combining point forecasts and combining probabilistic forecasts. This paper provides an up-to-date review of the extensive literature on forecast combinations, together with reference to available open-source software implementations. We discuss the potential and limitations of various methods and highlight how these ideas have developed over time. Some important issues concerning the utility of forecast combinations are also surveyed. Finally, we conclude with current research gaps and potential insights for future research.

We study the community detection problem on a Gaussian mixture model, in which (1) vertices are divided into $k\geq 2$ distinct communities that are not necessarily equally-sized; (2) the Gaussian perturbations for different entries in the observation matrix are not necessarily independent or identically distributed. We prove necessary and sufficient conditions for the exact recovery of the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), and discuss the cases when these necessary and sufficient conditions give sharp threshold. Applications include the community detection on a graph where the Gaussian perturbations of observations on each edge is the sum of i.i.d.~Gaussian random variables on its end vertices, in which we explicitly obtain the threshold for the exact recovery of the MLE.

Robustness studies of black-box models is recognized as a necessary task for numerical models based on structural equations and predictive models learned from data. These studies must assess the model's robustness to possible misspecification of regarding its inputs (e.g., covariate shift). The study of black-box models, through the prism of uncertainty quantification (UQ), is often based on sensitivity analysis involving a probabilistic structure imposed on the inputs, while ML models are solely constructed from observed data. Our work aim at unifying the UQ and ML interpretability approaches, by providing relevant and easy-to-use tools for both paradigms. To provide a generic and understandable framework for robustness studies, we define perturbations of input information relying on quantile constraints and projections with respect to the Wasserstein distance between probability measures, while preserving their dependence structure. We show that this perturbation problem can be analytically solved. Ensuring regularity constraints by means of isotonic polynomial approximations leads to smoother perturbations, which can be more suitable in practice. Numerical experiments on real case studies, from the UQ and ML fields, highlight the computational feasibility of such studies and provide local and global insights on the robustness of black-box models to input perturbations.

One of the most complex tasks of decision making and planning is to gather information. This task becomes even more complex when the state is high-dimensional and its belief cannot be expressed with a parametric distribution. Although the state is high-dimensional, in many problems only a small fraction of it might be involved in transitioning the state and generating observations. We exploit this fact to calculate an information-theoretic expected reward, mutual information (MI), over a much lower-dimensional subset of the state, to improve efficiency and without sacrificing accuracy. A similar approach was used in previous works, yet specifically for Gaussian distributions, and we here extend it for general distributions. Moreover, we apply the dimensionality reduction for cases in which the new states are augmented to the previous, yet again without sacrificing accuracy. We then continue by developing an estimator for the MI which works in a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) manner, and avoids the reconstruction of future belief's surfaces. Finally, we show how this work is applied to the informative planning optimization problem. This work is then evaluated in a simulation of an active SLAM problem, where the improvement in both accuracy and timing is demonstrated.

Human activity recognition has become an attractive research area with the development of on-body wearable sensing technology. With comfortable electronic-textiles, sensors can be embedded into clothing so that it is possible to record human movement outside the laboratory for long periods. However, a long-standing issue is how to deal with motion artefacts introduced by movement of clothing with respect to the body. Surprisingly, recent empirical findings suggest that cloth-attached sensor can actually achieve higher accuracy of activity recognition than rigid-attached sensor, particularly when predicting from short time-windows. In this work, a probabilistic model is introduced in which this improved accuracy and resposiveness is explained by the increased statistical distance between movements recorded via fabric sensing. The predictions of the model are verified in simulated and real human motion capture experiments, where it is evident that this counterintuitive effect is closely captured.

Over the last ten years, we have seen a significant increase in industrial data, tremendous improvement in computational power, and major theoretical advances in machine learning. This opens up an opportunity to use modern machine learning tools on large-scale nonlinear monitoring and control problems. This article provides a survey of recent results with applications in the process industry.

A keyword search on constrained clustering on Web-of-Science returned just under 3,000 documents. We ran automatic analyses of those, and compiled our own bibliography of 183 papers which we analysed in more detail based on their topic and experimental study, if any. This paper presents general trends of the area and its sub-topics by Pareto analysis, using citation count and year of publication. We list available software and analyse the experimental sections of our reference collection. We found a notable lack of large comparison experiments. Among the topics we reviewed, applications studies were most abundant recently, alongside deep learning, active learning and ensemble learning.

This paper presents recent methodological advances to perform simulation-based inference (SBI) of a general class of Bayesian hierarchical models (BHMs), while checking for model misspecification. Our approach is based on a two-step framework. First, the latent function that appears as second layer of the BHM is inferred and used to diagnose possible model misspecification. Second, target parameters of the trusted model are inferred via SBI. Simulations used in the first step are recycled for score compression, which is necessary to the second step. As a proof of concept, we apply our framework to a prey-predator model built upon the Lotka-Volterra equations and involving complex observational processes.