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 Uncertainty


HYPRO: A Hybridly Normalized Probabilistic Model for Long-Horizon Prediction of Event Sequences

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.


A Fuzzy Logic-based Cascade Control without Actuator Saturation for the Unmanned Underwater Vehicle Trajectory Tracking

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

An intelligent control strategy is proposed to eliminate the actuator saturation problem that exists in the trajectory tracking process of unmanned underwater vehicles (UUV). The control strategy consists of two parts: for the kinematic modeling part, a fuzzy logic-refined backstepping control is developed to achieve control velocities within acceptable ranges and errors of small fluctuations; on the basis of the velocities deducted by the improved kinematic control, the sliding mode control (SMC) is introduced in the dynamic modeling to obtain corresponding torques and forces that should be applied to the vehicle body. With the control velocities computed by the kinematic model and applied forces derived by the dynamic model, the robustness and accuracy of the UUV trajectory without actuator saturation can be achieved.


Robust self-healing prediction model for high dimensional data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Owing to the advantages of increased accuracy and the potential to detect unseen patterns, provided by data mining techniques they have been widely incorporated for standard classification problems. They have often been used for high precision disease prediction in the medical field, and several hybrid prediction models capable of achieving high accuracies have been proposed. Though this stands true most of the previous models fail to efficiently address the recurring issue of bad data quality which plagues most high dimensional data, and especially proves troublesome in the highly sensitive medical data. This work proposes a robust self healing (RSH) hybrid prediction model which functions by using the data in its entirety by removing errors and inconsistencies from it rather than discarding any data. Initial processing involves data preparation followed by cleansing or scrubbing through context-dependent attribute correction, which ensures that there is no significant loss of relevant information before the feature selection and prediction phases. An ensemble of heterogeneous classifiers, subjected to local boosting, is utilized to build the prediction model and genetic algorithm based wrapper feature selection technique wrapped on the respective classifiers is employed to select the corresponding optimal set of features, which warrant higher accuracy. The proposed method is compared with some of the existing high performing models and the results are analyzed.


Learning with Limited Samples -- Meta-Learning and Applications to Communication Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep learning has achieved remarkable success in many machine learning tasks such as image classification, speech recognition, and game playing. However, these breakthroughs are often difficult to translate into real-world engineering systems because deep learning models require a massive number of training samples, which are costly to obtain in practice. To address labeled data scarcity, few-shot meta-learning optimizes learning algorithms that can efficiently adapt to new tasks quickly. While meta-learning is gaining significant interest in the machine learning literature, its working principles and theoretic fundamentals are not as well understood in the engineering community. This review monograph provides an introduction to meta-learning by covering principles, algorithms, theory, and engineering applications. After introducing meta-learning in comparison with conventional and joint learning, we describe the main meta-learning algorithms, as well as a general bilevel optimization framework for the definition of meta-learning techniques. Then, we summarize known results on the generalization capabilities of meta-learning from a statistical learning viewpoint. Applications to communication systems, including decoding and power allocation, are discussed next, followed by an introduction to aspects related to the integration of meta-learning with emerging computing technologies, namely neuromorphic and quantum computing. The monograph is concluded with an overview of open research challenges.


Beyond Transmitting Bits: Context, Semantics, and Task-Oriented Communications

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Communication systems to date primarily aim at reliably communicating bit sequences. Such an approach provides efficient engineering designs that are agnostic to the meanings of the messages or to the goal that the message exchange aims to achieve. Next generation systems, however, can be potentially enriched by folding message semantics and goals of communication into their design. Further, these systems can be made cognizant of the context in which communication exchange takes place, providing avenues for novel design insights. This tutorial summarizes the efforts to date, starting from its early adaptations, semantic-aware and task-oriented communications, covering the foundations, algorithms and potential implementations. The focus is on approaches that utilize information theory to provide the foundations, as well as the significant role of learning in semantics and task-aware communications.


Improving Diffusion Models for Inverse Problems using Manifold Constraints

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recently, diffusion models have been used to solve various inverse problems in an unsupervised manner with appropriate modifications to the sampling process. However, the current solvers, which recursively apply a reverse diffusion step followed by a projection-based measurement consistency step, often produce suboptimal results. By studying the generative sampling path, here we show that current solvers throw the sample path off the data manifold, and hence the error accumulates. To address this, we propose an additional correction term inspired by the manifold constraint, which can be used synergistically with the previous solvers to make the iterations close to the manifold. The proposed manifold constraint is straightforward to implement within a few lines of code, yet boosts the performance by a surprisingly large margin. With extensive experiments, we show that our method is superior to the previous methods both theoretically and empirically, producing promising results in many applications such as image inpainting, colorization, and sparse-view computed tomography.


Movement Analytics: Current Status, Application to Manufacturing, and Future Prospects from an AI Perspective

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data-driven decision making is becoming an integral part of manufacturing companies. Data is collected and commonly used to improve efficiency and produce high quality items for the customers. IoT-based and other forms of object tracking are an emerging tool for collecting movement data of objects/entities (e.g. human workers, moving vehicles, trolleys etc.) over space and time. Movement data can provide valuable insights like process bottlenecks, resource utilization, effective working time etc. that can be used for decision making and improving efficiency. Turning movement data into valuable information for industrial management and decision making requires analysis methods. We refer to this process as movement analytics. The purpose of this document is to review the current state of work for movement analytics both in manufacturing and more broadly. We survey relevant work from both a theoretical perspective and an application perspective. From the theoretical perspective, we put an emphasis on useful methods from two research areas: machine learning, and logic-based knowledge representation. We also review their combinations in view of movement analytics, and we discuss promising areas for future development and application. Furthermore, we touch on constraint optimization. From an application perspective, we review applications of these methods to movement analytics in a general sense and across various industries. We also describe currently available commercial off-the-shelf products for tracking in manufacturing, and we overview main concepts of digital twins and their applications.


Convergence of score-based generative modeling for general data distributions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Diffusion models have gained huge popularity in recent years in machine learning, as a method to learn and generate new samples from a data distribution. Score-based generative modeling (SGM), as a particular kind of diffusion model, uses learned score functions (gradients of the log-pdf) to transform white noise to the data distribution through following a stochatic differential equation. While SGM has achieved state-of-theart performance for artificial image and audio generation [SE19; Dat+19; Gra+19; SE20; Son+20; Men+21; Son+21b; Son+21a; Jin+22], including being a key component of text-to-image systems [Ram+22], our theoretical understanding of these models is still nascent. In particular, basic questions on the convergence of the generated distribution to the data distribution remain unanswered. Recent theoretical work on SGM has attempted to answer these questions [De +21; LLT22; De 22], but they either suffer from exponential dependence on parameters or rely on strong assumptions on the data distribution such as functional inequalities or smoothness, which are rarely satisfied in practical situations. For example, considering the hallmark application of generating images from text, we expect the distribution of images to be (a) multimodal, and hence not satisfying functional inequalities with reasonable constants, and (b) supported on lower-dimensional manifolds, and hence not smooth. However, SGM still performs remarkably well in these settings. Indeed, this is one relative advantage to other approaches to generative modeling such as generative adversarial networks, which can struggle to learn multimodal distributions [ARZ18]. In this work, we aim to develop theoretical convergence guarantees with polynomial complexity for SGM under minimal data assumptions.


Belief propagation generalizes backpropagation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The two most important algorithms in artificial intelligence are backpropagation and belief propagation. In spite of their importance, the connection between them is poorly characterized. We show that when an input to backpropagation is converted into an input to belief propagation so that (loopy) belief propagation can be run on it, then the result of belief propagation encodes the result of backpropagation; thus backpropagation is recovered as a special case of belief propagation. In other words, we prove for apparently the first time that belief propagation generalizes backpropagation. Our analysis is a theoretical contribution, which we motivate with the expectation that it might reconcile our understandings of each of these algorithms, and serve as a guide to engineering researchers seeking to improve the behavior of systems that use one or the other.


Computer Vision - Richard Szeliski

#artificialintelligence

As humans, we perceive the three-dimensional structure of the world around us with apparent ease. Think of how vivid the three-dimensional percept is when you look at a vase of flowers sitting on the table next to you. You can tell the shape and translucency of each petal through the subtle patterns of light and shading that play across its surface and effortlessly segment each flower from the background of the scene (Figure 1.1). Looking at a framed group por- trait, you can easily count (and name) all of the people in the picture and even guess at their emotions from their facial appearance. Perceptual psychologists have spent decades trying to understand how the visual system works and, even though they can devise optical illusions1 to tease apart some of its principles (Figure 1.3), a complete solution to this puzzle remains elusive (Marr 1982; Palmer 1999; Livingstone 2008).