Time series datasets are often composed of a variety of sequences from the same domain, but from different entities, such as individuals, products, or organizations. We are interested in how time series models can be specialized to individual sequences (capturing the specific characteristics) while still retaining statistical power by sharing commonalities across the sequences. This paper describes the multi-task dynamical system (MTDS); a general methodology for extending multi-task learning (MTL) to time series models. Our approach endows dynamical systems with a set of hierarchical latent variables which can modulate all model parameters. To our knowledge, this is a novel development of MTL, and applies to time series both with and without control inputs. We apply the MTDS to motion-capture data of people walking in various styles using a multi-task recurrent neural network (RNN), and to patient drug-response data using a multi-task pharmacodynamic model.

The bootstrap resampling method has been popular for performing significance analysis on word error rate (WER) in automatic speech recognition (ASR) evaluation. To deal with dependent speech data, the blockwise bootstrap approach is also introduced. By dividing utterances into uncorrelated blocks, this approach resamples these blocks instead of original data. However, it is typically nontrivial to uncover the dependent structure among utterances and identify the blocks, which might lead to subjective conclusions in statistical testing. In this paper, we present graphical lasso based methods to explicitly model such dependency and estimate uncorrelated blocks of utterances in a rigorous way, after which blockwise bootstrap is applied on top of the inferred blocks. We show the resulting variance estimator of WER in ASR evaluation is statistically consistent under mild conditions. We also demonstrate the validity of proposed approach on LibriSpeech dataset.

Robust machine learning models with accurately calibrated uncertainties are crucial for safety-critical applications. Probabilistic machine learning and especially the Bayesian formalism provide a systematic framework to incorporate robustness through the distributional estimates and reason about uncertainty. Recent works have shown that approximate inference approaches that take the weight space uncertainty of neural networks to generate ensemble prediction are the state-of-the-art. However, architecture choices have mostly been ad hoc, which essentially ignores the epistemic uncertainty from the architecture space. To this end, we propose a Unified probabilistic architecture and weight ensembling Neural Architecture Search (UraeNAS) that leverages advances in probabilistic neural architecture search and approximate Bayesian inference to generate ensembles form the joint distribution of neural network architectures and weights. The proposed approach showed a significant improvement both with in-distribution (0.86% in accuracy, 42% in ECE) CIFAR-10 and out-of-distribution (2.43% in accuracy, 30% in ECE) CIFAR-10-C compared to the baseline deterministic approach.

Monte Carlo methods have become increasingly relevant for control of non-differentiable systems, approximate dynamics models and learning from data. These methods scale to high-dimensional spaces and are effective at the non-convex optimizations often seen in robot learning. We look at sample-based methods from the perspective of inference-based control, specifically posterior policy iteration. From this perspective, we highlight how Gaussian noise priors produce rough control actions that are unsuitable for physical robot deployment. Considering smoother Gaussian process priors, as used in episodic reinforcement learning and motion planning, we demonstrate how smoother model predictive control can be achieved using online sequential inference. This inference is realized through an efficient factorization of the action distribution and a novel means of optimizing the likelihood temperature to improve importance sampling accuracy. We evaluate this approach on several high-dimensional robot control tasks, matching the sample efficiency of prior heuristic methods while also ensuring smoothness. Simulation results can be seen at https://monte-carlo-ppi.github.io/.

This paper presents the application of an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to predict the generated electrical power in a combined cycle power plant. The ANFIS architecture is implemented in MATLAB through a code that utilizes a hybrid algorithm that combines gradient descent and the least square estimator to train the network. The Model is verified by applying it to approximate a nonlinear equation with three variables, the time series Mackey-Glass equation and the ANFIS toolbox in MATLAB. Once its validity is confirmed, ANFIS is implemented to forecast the generated electrical power by the power plant. The ANFIS has three inputs: temperature, pressure, and relative humidity. Each input is fuzzified by three Gaussian membership functions. The first-order Sugeno type defuzzification approach is utilized to evaluate a crisp output. Proposed ANFIS is cable of successfully predicting power generation with extremely high accuracy and being much faster than Toolbox, which makes it a promising tool for energy generation applications.

The fundamental challenge in causal induction is to infer the underlying graph structure given observational and/or interventional data. Most existing causal induction algorithms operate by generating candidate graphs and evaluating them using either score-based methods (including continuous optimization) or independence tests. In our work, we instead treat the inference process as a black box and design a neural network architecture that learns the mapping from both observational and interventional data to graph structures via supervised training on synthetic graphs. The learned model generalizes to new synthetic graphs, is robust to train-test distribution shifts, and achieves state-of-the-art performance on naturalistic graphs for low sample complexity.

Many potential applications of reinforcement learning (RL) are stymied by the large numbers of samples required to learn an effective policy. This is especially true when applying RL to real-world control tasks, e.g. in the sciences or robotics, where executing a policy in the environment is costly. In popular RL algorithms, agents typically explore either by adding stochasticity to a reward-maximizing policy or by attempting to gather maximal information about environment dynamics without taking the given task into account. In this work, we develop a method that allows us to plan for exploration while taking both the task and the current knowledge about the dynamics into account. The key insight to our approach is to plan an action sequence that maximizes the expected information gain about the optimal trajectory for the task at hand. We demonstrate that our method learns strong policies with 2x fewer samples than strong exploration baselines and 200x fewer samples than model free methods on a diverse set of low-to-medium dimensional control tasks in both the open-loop and closed-loop control settings.

Hyperbox-based machine learning algorithms are an important and popular branch of machine learning in the construction of classifiers using fuzzy sets and logic theory and neural network architectures. This type of learning is characterised by many strong points of modern predictors such as a high scalability, explainability, online adaptation, effective learning from a small amount of data, native ability to deal with missing data and accommodating new classes. Nevertheless, there is no comprehensive existing package for hyperbox-based machine learning which can serve as a benchmark for research and allow non-expert users to apply these algorithms easily. hyperbox-brain is an open-source Python library implementing the leading hyperbox-based machine learning algorithms. This library exposes a unified API which closely follows and is compatible with the renowned scikit-learn and numpy toolboxes. The library may be installed from Python Package Index (PyPI) and the conda package manager and is distributed under the GPL-3 license. The source code, documentation, detailed tutorials, and the full descriptions of the API are available at https://uts-caslab.github.io/hyperbox-brain.

A central goal in the cognitive sciences is the development of numerical models for mental representations of object concepts. This paper introduces Variational Interpretable Concept Embeddings (VICE), an approximate Bayesian method for embedding object concepts in a vector space using data collected from humans in a triplet odd-one-out task. VICE uses variational inference to obtain sparse, non-negative representations of object concepts with uncertainty estimates for the embedding values. These estimates are used to automatically select the dimensions that best explain the data. We derive a PAC learning bound for VICE that can be used to estimate generalization performance or determine a sufficient sample size for experimental design. VICE rivals or outperforms its predecessor, SPoSE, at predicting human behavior in the triplet odd-one-out task. Furthermore, VICE's object representations are more reproducible and consistent across random initializations, highlighting the unique advantage of using VICE for deriving interpretable embeddings from human behavior.

Recently, many applications have been devoted to understanding and revealing causal rather than associative relations among variables. One approach in the context of time series is that of synthetic controls (Abadie and Gardeazabal, 2003) and various extensions. This is based on the idea of recovering the counterfactual outcome that would have been observed had an intervention not taken place. This article contributes to expanding and generalizing this class of models, allowing for non-linearity in a nonparametric manner through Gaussian Processes. These models have high degree of flexibility in building the counterfactual outcome, using all types of information and without any limitations on the functional form. They also make it possible to assess the robustness of the synthetic controls, as we can use the posterior distributions of the Gaussian Processes to quantify uncertainty stemming from the functional form estimation. Lastly, as the models learn the relationships which prevail amongst all associated variables, there is no need to match the time series on a calendar basis, making the most of the available data.