Uncertainty
How to talk so AI will learn: Instructions, descriptions, and autonomy
Sumers, Theodore R, Hawkins, Robert D, Ho, Mark K, Griffiths, Thomas L, Hadfield-Menell, Dylan
From the earliest years of our lives, humans use language to express our beliefs and desires. Being able to talk to artificial agents about our preferences would thus fulfill a central goal of value alignment. Yet today, we lack computational models explaining such language use. To address this challenge, we formalize learning from language in a contextual bandit setting and ask how a human might communicate preferences over behaviors. We study two distinct types of language: $\textit{instructions}$, which provide information about the desired policy, and $\textit{descriptions}$, which provide information about the reward function. We show that the agent's degree of autonomy determines which form of language is optimal: instructions are better in low-autonomy settings, but descriptions are better when the agent will need to act independently. We then define a pragmatic listener agent that robustly infers the speaker's reward function by reasoning about $\textit{how}$ the speaker expresses themselves. We validate our models with a behavioral experiment, demonstrating that (1) our speaker model predicts human behavior, and (2) our pragmatic listener successfully recovers humans' reward functions. Finally, we show that this form of social learning can integrate with and reduce regret in traditional reinforcement learning. We hope these insights facilitate a shift from developing agents that $\textit{obey}$ language to agents that $\textit{learn}$ from it.
Statistical inference as Green's functions
Lee, Hyun Keun, Kwon, Chulan, Kim, Yong Woon
Statistical inference from data is a foundational task in science. Recently, it has received growing attention for its central role in inference systems of primary interest in data sciences and machine learning. However, the understanding of statistical inference is not that solid while remains as a matter of subjective belief or as the routine procedures once claimed objective. We here show that there is an objective description of statistical inference for long sequence of exchangeable binary random variables, the prototypal stochasticity in theories and applications. A linear differential equation is derived from the identity known as de Finetti's representation theorem, and it turns out that statistical inference is given by the Green's functions. Our finding is an answer to the normative issue of science that pursues the objectivity based on data, and its significance will be far-reaching in most pure and applied fields.
Instance-Based Uncertainty Estimation for Gradient-Boosted Regression Trees
Brophy, Jonathan, Lowd, Daniel
Gradient-boosted regression trees (GBRTs) are hugely popular for solving tabular regression problems, but provide no estimate of uncertainty. We propose Instance-Based Uncertainty estimation for Gradient-boosted regression trees (IBUG), a simple method for extending any GBRT point predictor to produce probabilistic predictions. IBUG computes a non-parametric distribution around a prediction using the $k$-nearest training instances, where distance is measured with a tree-ensemble kernel. The runtime of IBUG depends on the number of training examples at each leaf in the ensemble, and can be improved by sampling trees or training instances. Empirically, we find that IBUG achieves similar or better performance than the previous state-of-the-art across 22 benchmark regression datasets. We also find that IBUG can achieve improved probabilistic performance by using different base GBRT models, and can more flexibly model the posterior distribution of a prediction than competing methods. We also find that previous methods suffer from poor probabilistic calibration on some datasets, which can be mitigated using a scalar factor tuned on the validation data. Source code is available at https://www.github.com/jjbrophy47/ibug.
A Survey of Methods for Automated Algorithm Configuration
Schede, Elias (a:1:{s:5:"en_US";s:20:"Bielefeld University";}) | Brandt, Jasmin (Department of Computer Science, Paderborn University) | Tornede, Alexander ( Department of Computer Science, Paderborn University,) | Wever, Marcel (Institute of Informatics, LMU Munich) | Bengs, Viktor (Institute of Informatics, LMU Munich) | Hรผllermeier, Eyke (Institute of Informatics, LMU Munich) | Tierney, Kevin (Decision and Operation Technologies Group, Bielefeld University)
Algorithm configuration (AC) is concerned with the automated search of the most suitable parameter configuration of a parametrized algorithm. There is currently a wide variety of AC problem variants and methods proposed in the literature. Existing reviews do not take into account all derivatives of the AC problem, nor do they offer a complete classification scheme. To this end, we introduce taxonomies to describe the AC problem and features of configuration methods, respectively. We review existing AC literature within the lens of our taxonomies, outline relevant design choices of configuration approaches, contrast methods and problem variants against each other, and describe the state of AC in industry. Finally, our review provides researchers and practitioners with a look at future research directions in the field of AC.
Modeling and Mining Multi-Aspect Graphs With Scalable Streaming Tensor Decomposition
Graphs emerge in almost every real-world application domain, ranging from online social networks all the way to health data and movie viewership patterns. Typically, such real-world graphs are big and dynamic, in the sense that they evolve over time. Furthermore, graphs usually contain multi-aspect information i.e. in a social network, we can have the "means of communication" between nodes, such as who messages whom, who calls whom, and who comments on whose timeline and so on. How can we model and mine useful patterns, such as communities of nodes in that graph, from such multi-aspect graphs? How can we identify dynamic patterns in those graphs, and how can we deal with streaming data, when the volume of data to be processed is very large? In order to answer those questions, in this thesis, we propose novel tensor-based methods for mining static and dynamic multi-aspect graphs. In general, a tensor is a higher-order generalization of a matrix that can represent high-dimensional multi-aspect data such as time-evolving networks, collaboration networks, and spatio-temporal data like Electroencephalography (EEG) brain measurements. The thesis is organized in two synergistic thrusts: First, we focus on static multi-aspect graphs, where the goal is to identify coherent communities and patterns between nodes by leveraging the tensor structure in the data. Second, as our graphs evolve dynamically, we focus on handling such streaming updates in the data without having to re-compute the decomposition, but incrementally update the existing results.
Leveraging Instance Features for Label Aggregation in Programmatic Weak Supervision
Zhang, Jieyu, Song, Linxin, Ratner, Alexander
Programmatic Weak Supervision (PWS) has emerged as a widespread paradigm to synthesize training labels efficiently. The core component of PWS is the label model, which infers true labels by aggregating the outputs of multiple noisy supervision sources abstracted as labeling functions (LFs). Existing statistical label models typically rely only on the outputs of LF, ignoring the instance features when modeling the underlying generative process. In this paper, we attempt to incorporate the instance features into a statistical label model via the proposed FABLE. In particular, it is built on a mixture of Bayesian label models, each corresponding to a global pattern of correlation, and the coefficients of the mixture components are predicted by a Gaussian Process classifier based on instance features. We adopt an auxiliary variable-based variational inference algorithm to tackle the non-conjugate issue between the Gaussian Process and Bayesian label models. Extensive empirical comparison on eleven benchmark datasets sees FABLE achieving the highest averaged performance across nine baselines.
Scaling Up Probabilistic Circuits by Latent Variable Distillation
Liu, Anji, Zhang, Honghua, Broeck, Guy Van den
Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are a unified framework for tractable probabilistic models that support efficient computation of various probabilistic queries (e.g., marginal probabilities). One key challenge is to scale PCs to model large and high-dimensional real-world datasets: we observe that as the number of parameters in PCs increases, their performance immediately plateaus. This phenomenon suggests that the existing optimizers fail to exploit the full expressive power of large PCs. We propose to overcome such bottleneck by latent variable distillation: we leverage the less tractable but more expressive deep generative models to provide extra supervision over the latent variables of PCs. Specifically, we extract information from Transformer-based generative models to assign values to latent variables of PCs, providing guidance to PC optimizers. Experiments on both image and language modeling benchmarks (e.g., ImageNet and WikiText-2) show that latent variable distillation substantially boosts the performance of large PCs compared to their counterparts without latent variable distillation. In particular, on the image modeling benchmarks, PCs achieve competitive performance against some of the widely-used deep generative models, including variational autoencoders and flow-based models, opening up new avenues for tractable generative modeling.
Multitask Learning for Scalable and Dense Multilayer Bayesian Map Inference
Gan, Lu, Kim, Youngji, Grizzle, Jessy W., Walls, Jeffrey M., Kim, Ayoung, Eustice, Ryan M., Ghaffari, Maani
This article presents a novel and flexible multitask multilayer Bayesian mapping framework with readily extendable attribute layers. The proposed framework goes beyond modern metric-semantic maps to provide even richer environmental information for robots in a single mapping formalism while exploiting intralayer and interlayer correlations. It removes the need for a robot to access and process information from many separate maps when performing a complex task, advancing the way robots interact with their environments. To this end, we design a multitask deep neural network with attention mechanisms as our front-end to provide heterogeneous observations for multiple map layers simultaneously. Our back-end runs a scalable closed-form Bayesian inference with only logarithmic time complexity. We apply the framework to build a dense robotic map including metric-semantic occupancy and traversability layers. Traversability ground truth labels are automatically generated from exteroceptive sensory data in a self-supervised manner. We present extensive experimental results on publicly available datasets and data collected by a 3D bipedal robot platform and show reliable mapping performance in different environments. Finally, we also discuss how the current framework can be extended to incorporate more information such as friction, signal strength, temperature, and physical quantity concentration using Gaussian map layers. The software for reproducing the presented results or running on customized data is made publicly available.
Maximum sampled conditional likelihood for informative subsampling
Subsampling is a computationally effective approach to extract information from massive data sets when computing resources are limited. After a subsample is taken from the full data, most available methods use an inverse probability weighted (IPW) objective function to estimate the model parameters. The IPW estimator does not fully utilize the information in the selected subsample. In this paper, we propose to use the maximum sampled conditional likelihood estimator (MSCLE) based on the sampled data. We established the asymptotic normality of the MSCLE and prove that its asymptotic variance covariance matrix is the smallest among a class of asymptotically unbiased estimators, including the IPW estimator. We further discuss the asymptotic results with the L-optimal subsampling probabilities and illustrate the estimation procedure with generalized linear models. Numerical experiments are provided to evaluate the practical performance of the proposed method.
Signal Detection in MIMO Systems with Hardware Imperfections: Message Passing on Neural Networks
Gao, Dawei, Guo, Qinghua, Liao, Guisheng, Eldar, Yonina C., Li, Yonghui, Yu, Yanguang, Vucetic, Branka
In this paper, we investigate signal detection in multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) communication systems with hardware impairments, such as power amplifier nonlinearity and in-phase/quadrature imbalance. To deal with the complex combined effects of hardware imperfections, neural network (NN) techniques, in particular deep neural networks (DNNs), have been studied to directly compensate for the impact of hardware impairments. However, it is difficult to train a DNN with limited pilot signals, hindering its practical applications. In this work, we investigate how to achieve efficient Bayesian signal detection in MIMO systems with hardware imperfections. Characterizing combined hardware imperfections often leads to complicated signal models, making Bayesian signal detection challenging. To address this issue, we first train an NN to "model" the MIMO system with hardware imperfections and then perform Bayesian inference based on the trained NN. Modelling the MIMO system with NN enables the design of NN architectures based on the signal flow of the MIMO system, minimizing the number of NN layers and parameters, which is crucial to achieving efficient training with limited pilot signals. We then represent the trained NN with a factor graph, and design an efficient message passing based Bayesian signal detector, leveraging the unitary approximate message passing (UAMP) algorithm. The implementation of a turbo receiver with the proposed Bayesian detector is also investigated. Extensive simulation results demonstrate that the proposed technique delivers remarkably better performance than state-of-the-art methods.