Fog manufacturing can greatly enhance traditional manufacturing systems through distributed Fog computation units, which are governed by predictive computational workload offloading methods under different Industrial Internet architectures. It is known that the predictive offloading methods highly depend on accurate prediction and uncertainty quantification of runtime performance metrics, containing multivariate mixed-type responses (i.e., continuous, counting, binary). In this work, we propose a Bayesian sparse regression for multivariate mixed responses to enhance the prediction of runtime performance metrics and to enable the statistical inferences. The proposed method considers both group and individual variable selection to jointly model the mixed types of runtime performance metrics. The conditional dependency among multiple responses is described by a graphical model using the precision matrix, where a spike-and-slab prior is used to enable the sparse estimation of the graph. The proposed method not only achieves accurate prediction, but also makes the predictive model more interpretable with statistical inferences on model parameters and prediction in the Fog manufacturing. A simulation study and a real case example in a Fog manufacturing are conducted to demonstrate the merits of the proposed model.

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a flexible, nonparametric approach to regression that naturally quantifies uncertainty. In many applications, the number of responses and covariates are both large, and a goal is to select covariates that are related to the response. For this setting, we propose a novel, scalable algorithm, coined VGPR, which optimizes a penalized GP log-likelihood based on the Vecchia GP approximation, an ordered conditional approximation from spatial statistics that implies a sparse Cholesky factor of the precision matrix. We traverse the regularization path from strong to weak penalization, sequentially adding candidate covariates based on the gradient of the log-likelihood and deselecting irrelevant covariates via a new quadratic constrained coordinate descent algorithm. We propose Vecchia-based mini-batch subsampling, which provides unbiased gradient estimators. The resulting procedure is scalable to millions of responses and thousands of covariates. Theoretical analysis and numerical studies demonstrate the improved scalability and accuracy relative to existing methods.

Accurately predicting the relevance of items to users is crucial to the success of many social platforms. Conventional approaches train models on logged historical data; but recommendation systems, media services, and online marketplaces all exhibit a constant influx of new content -- making relevancy a moving target, to which standard predictive models are not robust. In this paper, we propose a learning framework for relevance prediction that is robust to changes in the data distribution. Our key observation is that robustness can be obtained by accounting for how users causally perceive the environment. We model users as boundedly-rational decision makers whose causal beliefs are encoded by a causal graph, and show how minimal information regarding the graph can be used to contend with distributional changes. Experiments in multiple settings demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

State-of-the-art (SOTA) semi-supervised learning (SSL) methods have been highly successful in leveraging a mix of labeled and unlabeled data by combining techniques of consistency regularization and pseudo-labeling. During pseudo-labeling, the model's predictions on unlabeled data are used for training and thus, model calibration is important in mitigating confirmation bias. Yet, many SOTA methods are optimized for model performance, with little focus directed to improve model calibration. In this work, we empirically demonstrate that model calibration is strongly correlated with model performance and propose to improve calibration via approximate Bayesian techniques. We introduce a family of new SSL models that optimizes for calibration and demonstrate their effectiveness across standard vision benchmarks of CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100 and ImageNet, giving up to 15.9% improvement in test accuracy. Furthermore, we also demonstrate their effectiveness in additional realistic and challenging problems, such as class-imbalanced datasets and in photonics science.

Recently, continual learning has received a lot of attention. One of the significant problems is the occurrence of \emph{concept drift}, which consists of changing probabilistic characteristics of the incoming data. In the case of the classification task, this phenomenon destabilizes the model's performance and negatively affects the achieved prediction quality. Most current methods apply statistical learning and similarity analysis over the raw data. However, similarity analysis in streaming data remains a complex problem due to time limitation, non-precise values, fast decision speed, scalability, etc. This article introduces a novel method for monitoring changes in the probabilistic distribution of multi-dimensional data streams. As a measure of the rapidity of changes, we analyze the popular Kullback-Leibler divergence. During the experimental study, we show how to use this metric to predict the concept drift occurrence and understand its nature. The obtained results encourage further work on the proposed methods and its application in the real tasks where the prediction of the future appearance of concept drift plays a crucial role, such as predictive maintenance.

From the earliest years of our lives, humans use language to express our beliefs and desires. Being able to talk to artificial agents about our preferences would thus fulfill a central goal of value alignment. Yet today, we lack computational models explaining such language use. To address this challenge, we formalize learning from language in a contextual bandit setting and ask how a human might communicate preferences over behaviors. We study two distinct types of language: $\textit{instructions}$, which provide information about the desired policy, and $\textit{descriptions}$, which provide information about the reward function. We show that the agent's degree of autonomy determines which form of language is optimal: instructions are better in low-autonomy settings, but descriptions are better when the agent will need to act independently. We then define a pragmatic listener agent that robustly infers the speaker's reward function by reasoning about $\textit{how}$ the speaker expresses themselves. We validate our models with a behavioral experiment, demonstrating that (1) our speaker model predicts human behavior, and (2) our pragmatic listener successfully recovers humans' reward functions. Finally, we show that this form of social learning can integrate with and reduce regret in traditional reinforcement learning. We hope these insights facilitate a shift from developing agents that $\textit{obey}$ language to agents that $\textit{learn}$ from it.

Statistical inference from data is a foundational task in science. Recently, it has received growing attention for its central role in inference systems of primary interest in data sciences and machine learning. However, the understanding of statistical inference is not that solid while remains as a matter of subjective belief or as the routine procedures once claimed objective. We here show that there is an objective description of statistical inference for long sequence of exchangeable binary random variables, the prototypal stochasticity in theories and applications. A linear differential equation is derived from the identity known as de Finetti's representation theorem, and it turns out that statistical inference is given by the Green's functions. Our finding is an answer to the normative issue of science that pursues the objectivity based on data, and its significance will be far-reaching in most pure and applied fields.

Gradient-boosted regression trees (GBRTs) are hugely popular for solving tabular regression problems, but provide no estimate of uncertainty. We propose Instance-Based Uncertainty estimation for Gradient-boosted regression trees (IBUG), a simple method for extending any GBRT point predictor to produce probabilistic predictions. IBUG computes a non-parametric distribution around a prediction using the $k$-nearest training instances, where distance is measured with a tree-ensemble kernel. The runtime of IBUG depends on the number of training examples at each leaf in the ensemble, and can be improved by sampling trees or training instances. Empirically, we find that IBUG achieves similar or better performance than the previous state-of-the-art across 22 benchmark regression datasets. We also find that IBUG can achieve improved probabilistic performance by using different base GBRT models, and can more flexibly model the posterior distribution of a prediction than competing methods. We also find that previous methods suffer from poor probabilistic calibration on some datasets, which can be mitigated using a scalar factor tuned on the validation data. Source code is available at https://www.github.com/jjbrophy47/ibug.

Algorithm configuration (AC) is concerned with the automated search of the most suitable parameter configuration of a parametrized algorithm. There is currently a wide variety of AC problem variants and methods proposed in the literature. Existing reviews do not take into account all derivatives of the AC problem, nor do they offer a complete classification scheme. To this end, we introduce taxonomies to describe the AC problem and features of configuration methods, respectively. We review existing AC literature within the lens of our taxonomies, outline relevant design choices of configuration approaches, contrast methods and problem variants against each other, and describe the state of AC in industry. Finally, our review provides researchers and practitioners with a look at future research directions in the field of AC.

Graphs emerge in almost every real-world application domain, ranging from online social networks all the way to health data and movie viewership patterns. Typically, such real-world graphs are big and dynamic, in the sense that they evolve over time. Furthermore, graphs usually contain multi-aspect information i.e. in a social network, we can have the "means of communication" between nodes, such as who messages whom, who calls whom, and who comments on whose timeline and so on. How can we model and mine useful patterns, such as communities of nodes in that graph, from such multi-aspect graphs? How can we identify dynamic patterns in those graphs, and how can we deal with streaming data, when the volume of data to be processed is very large? In order to answer those questions, in this thesis, we propose novel tensor-based methods for mining static and dynamic multi-aspect graphs. In general, a tensor is a higher-order generalization of a matrix that can represent high-dimensional multi-aspect data such as time-evolving networks, collaboration networks, and spatio-temporal data like Electroencephalography (EEG) brain measurements. The thesis is organized in two synergistic thrusts: First, we focus on static multi-aspect graphs, where the goal is to identify coherent communities and patterns between nodes by leveraging the tensor structure in the data. Second, as our graphs evolve dynamically, we focus on handling such streaming updates in the data without having to re-compute the decomposition, but incrementally update the existing results.