Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is the predominant algorithm for training text generation models. This paradigm relies on direct supervision examples, which is not applicable to many emerging applications, such as generating adversarial attacks or generating prompts to control language models. Reinforcement learning (RL) on the other hand offers a more flexible solution by allowing users to plug in arbitrary task metrics as reward. Yet previous RL algorithms for text generation, such as policy gradient (on-policy RL) and Q-learning (off-policy RL), are often notoriously inefficient or unstable to train due to the large sequence space and the sparse reward received only at the end of sequences. In this paper, we introduce a new RL formulation for text generation from the soft Q-learning (SQL) perspective. It enables us to draw from the latest RL advances, such as path consistency learning, to combine the best of on-/off-policy updates, and learn effectively from sparse reward. We apply the approach to a wide range of novel text generation tasks, including learning from noisy/negative examples, adversarial attacks, and prompt generation. Experiments show our approach consistently outperforms both task-specialized algorithms and the previous RL methods.

We investigate nonlinear instrumental variable (IV) regression given high-dimensional instruments. We propose a simple algorithm which combines kernelized IV methods and an arbitrary, adaptive regression algorithm, accessed as a black box. Our algorithm enjoys faster-rate convergence and adapts to the dimensionality of informative latent features, while avoiding an expensive minimax optimization procedure, which has been necessary to establish similar guarantees. It further brings the benefit of flexible machine learning models to quasi-Bayesian uncertainty quantification, likelihood-based model selection, and model averaging. Simulation studies demonstrate the competitive performance of our method.

Bayesian optimisation (BO) algorithms have shown remarkable success in applications involving expensive black-box functions. Traditionally BO has been set as a sequential decision-making process which estimates the utility of query points via an acquisition function and a prior over functions, such as a Gaussian process. Recently, however, a reformulation of BO via density-ratio estimation (BORE) allowed reinterpreting the acquisition function as a probabilistic binary classifier, removing the need for an explicit prior over functions and increasing scalability. In this paper, we present a theoretical analysis of BORE's regret and an extension of the algorithm with improved uncertainty estimates. We also show that BORE can be naturally extended to a batch optimisation setting by recasting the problem as approximate Bayesian inference. The resulting algorithms come equipped with theoretical performance guarantees and are assessed against other batch and sequential BO baselines in a series of experiments.

Despite recent advances in automated machine learning, model selection is still a complex and computationally intensive process. For Gaussian processes (GPs), selecting the kernel is a crucial task, often done manually by the expert. Additionally, evaluating the model selection criteria for Gaussian processes typically scales cubically in the sample size, rendering kernel search particularly computationally expensive. We propose a novel, efficient search method through a general, structured kernel space. Previous methods solved this task via Bayesian optimization and relied on measuring the distance between GP's directly in function space to construct a kernel-kernel. We present an alternative approach by defining a kernel-kernel over the symbolic representation of the statistical hypothesis that is associated with a kernel. We empirically show that this leads to a computationally more efficient way of searching through a discrete kernel space.

An appropriate level of arousal induces positive emotions, and a high arousal potential may provoke negative emotions. To explain the effect of arousal on emotional valence, we propose a novel mathematical framework of arousal potential variations in the dual process of human cognition: automatic and controlled. A suitable mathematical formulation to explain the emotions in the dual process is still absent. Our model associates free energy with arousal potential and its variations to explain emotional valence. Decreasing and increasing free energy consequently induce positive and negative emotions, respectively. We formalize a transition from the automatic to the controlled process in the dual process as a change of Bayesian prior. Further, we model emotional valence using free energy increase (FI) when one tries changing one's Bayesian prior and its reduction (FR) when one succeeds in recognizing the same stimuli with a changed prior and define three emotions: "interest," "confusion," and "boredom" using the variations. The results of our mathematical analysis comparing various Gaussian model parameters reveals the following: 1) prediction error (PR) increases FR (representing "interest") when the first prior variance is greater than the second prior variance, 2) PR decreases FR when the first prior variance is less than the second prior variance, and 3) the distance between priors' means always increases FR. We also discuss the association of the outcomes with emotions in the controlled process. The proposed mathematical model provides a general framework for predicting and controlling emotional valence in the dual process that varies with viewpoint and stimuli, as well as for understanding the contradictions in the effects of arousal on the valence.

Most supervised machine learning tasks are subject to irreducible prediction errors. Probabilistic predictive models address this limitation by providing probability distributions that represent a belief over plausible targets, rather than point estimates. Such models can be a valuable tool in decision-making under uncertainty, provided that the model output is meaningful and interpretable. Calibrated models guarantee that the probabilistic predictions are neither over- nor under-confident. In the machine learning literature, different measures and statistical tests have been proposed and studied for evaluating the calibration of classification models. For regression problems, however, research has been focused on a weaker condition of calibration based on predicted quantiles for real-valued targets. In this paper, we propose the first framework that unifies calibration evaluation and tests for general probabilistic predictive models. It applies to any such model, including classification and regression models of arbitrary dimension. Furthermore, the framework generalizes existing measures and provides a more intuitive reformulation of a recently proposed framework for calibration in multi-class classification. In particular, we reformulate and generalize the kernel calibration error, its estimators, and hypothesis tests using scalar-valued kernels, and evaluate the calibration of real-valued regression problems.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, several countries have taken the approach of tiered restrictions which has remained a point of debate due to a lack of transparency. Using the dominance-based rough set approach, we identify patterns in the COVID-19 data pertaining to the UK government's tiered restrictions allocation system. These insights from the analysis are translated into "if-then" type rules, which can easily be interpreted by policy makers. The differences in the rules extracted from different geographical areas suggest inconsistencies in the allocations of tiers in these areas. We found that the differences delineated an overall north south divide in England, however, this divide was driven mostly by London. Based on our analysis, we demonstrate the usefulness of the dominance-based rough sets approach for investigating the fairness and explainabilty of decision making regarding COVID-19 restrictions. The proposed approach and analysis could provide a more transparent approach to localised public health restrictions, which can help ensure greater conformity to the public safety rules.

A fundamental task in science is to design experiments that yield valuable insights about the system under study. Mathematically, these insights can be represented as a utility or risk function that shapes the value of conducting each experiment. We present PDBAL, a targeted active learning method that adaptively designs experiments to maximize scientific utility. PDBAL takes a user-specified risk function and combines it with a probabilistic model of the experimental outcomes to choose designs that rapidly converge on a high-utility model. We prove theoretical bounds on the label complexity of PDBAL and provide fast closed-form solutions for designing experiments with common exponential family likelihoods. In simulation studies, PDBAL consistently outperforms standard untargeted approaches that focus on maximizing expected information gain over the design space. Finally, we demonstrate the scientific potential of PDBAL through a study on a large cancer drug screen dataset where PDBAL quickly recovers the most efficacious drugs with a small fraction of the total number of experiments.

Human computation is an approach to solving problems that prove difficult using AI only, and involves the cooperation of many humans. Because human computation requires close engagement with both "human populations as users" and "human populations as driving forces," establishing mutual trust between AI and humans is an important issue to further the development of human computation. This survey lays the groundwork for the realization of trustworthy human computation. First, the trustworthiness of human computation as computing systems, that is, trust offered by humans to AI, is examined using the RAS (Reliability, Availability, and Serviceability) analogy, which define measures of trustworthiness in conventional computer systems. Next, the social trustworthiness provided by human computation systems to users or participants is discussed from the perspective of AI ethics, including fairness, privacy, and transparency. Then, we consider human--AI collaboration based on two-way trust, in which humans and AI build mutual trust and accomplish difficult tasks through reciprocal collaboration. Finally, future challenges and research directions for realizing trustworthy human computation are discussed.

Causal discovery from observational and interventional data is challenging due to limited data and non-identifiability: factors that introduce uncertainty in estimating the underlying structural causal model (SCM). Selecting experiments (interventions) based on the uncertainty arising from both factors can expedite the identification of the SCM. Existing methods in experimental design for causal discovery from limited data either rely on linear assumptions for the SCM or select only the intervention target. This work incorporates recent advances in Bayesian causal discovery into the Bayesian optimal experimental design framework, allowing for active causal discovery of large, nonlinear SCMs while selecting both the interventional target and the value. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method on synthetic graphs (Erdos-R\`enyi, Scale Free) for both linear and nonlinear SCMs as well as on the \emph{in-silico} single-cell gene regulatory network dataset, DREAM.