An important constraint of Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS) is their structured rules defined based on evaluating all input variables. Indeed, the length of all fuzzy rules and the number of input variables are equal. However, in many decision-making problems evaluating some conditions on a limited set of input variables is sufficient to decide properly (unstructured rules). Therefore, this constraint limits the performance, generalization, and interpretability of the FIS. To address this issue, this paper presents a neuro-fuzzy inference system for classification applications that can select different sets of input variables for constructing each fuzzy rule. To realize this capability, a new fuzzy selector neuron with an adaptive parameter is proposed that can select input variables in the antecedent part of each fuzzy rule. Moreover, in this paper, the consequent part of the Takagi-Sugeno-Kang FIS is also changed properly to consider only the selected set of input variables. To learn the parameters of the proposed architecture, a trust-region-based learning method (General quasi-Levenberg-Marquardt (GqLM)) is proposed to minimize cross-entropy in multiclass problems. The performance of the proposed method is compared with some related previous approaches in some real-world classification problems. Based on these comparisons the proposed method has better or very close performance with a parsimonious structure consisting of unstructured fuzzy.

Recommender systems are the primary interface connecting users to a wide variety of online content, and therefore must overcome a number of challenges across the user population in order to serve them equitably. To this end, in 2019 we released RecSim, a configurable platform for authoring simulation environments to facilitate the study of RL algorithms (the de facto standard ML approach for addressing sequential decision problems) in recommender systems. However, as the technology has progressed, it has become increasingly important to address the gap between simulation and real-world applications, ensuring that models are flexible and easily extendible, enabling probabilistic inference of user dynamics, and addressing computational efficiency. To address these issues, we recently released RecSim NG, the "Next Generation" of simulators for recommender systems research and development. RecSim NG is a response to a set of use cases that have emerged as important challenges in the application of simulation to real-world problems.

In practical applications, data is used to make decisions in two steps: estimation and optimization. First, a machine learning model estimates parameters for a structural model relating decisions to outcomes. Second, a decision is chosen to optimize the structural model's predicted outcome as if its parameters were correctly estimated. Due to its flexibility and simple implementation, this ``estimate-then-optimize'' approach is often used for data-driven decision-making. Errors in the estimation step can lead estimate-then-optimize to sub-optimal decisions that result in regret, i.e., a difference in value between the decision made and the best decision available with knowledge of the structural model's parameters. We provide a novel bound on this regret for smooth and unconstrained optimization problems. Using this bound, in settings where estimated parameters are linear transformations of sub-Gaussian random vectors, we provide a general procedure for experimental design to minimize the regret resulting from estimate-then-optimize. We demonstrate our approach on simple examples and a pandemic control application.

Many network analysis and graph learning techniques are based on models of random walks which require to infer transition matrices that formalize the underlying stochastic process in an observed graph. For weighted graphs, it is common to estimate the entries of such transition matrices based on the relative weights of edges. However, we are often confronted with incomplete data, which turns the construction of the transition matrix based on a weighted graph into an inference problem. Moreover, we often have access to additional information, which capture topological constraints of the system, i.e. which edges in a weighted graph are (theoretically) possible and which are not, e.g. transportation networks, where we have access to passenger trajectories as well as the physical topology of connections, or a set of social interactions with the underlying social structure. Combining these two different sources of information to infer transition matrices is an open challenge, with implications on the downstream network analysis tasks. Addressing this issue, we show that including knowledge on such topological constraints can improve the inference of transition matrices, especially for small datasets. We derive an analytically tractable Bayesian method that uses repeated interactions and a topological prior to infer transition matrices data-efficiently. We compare it against commonly used frequentist and Bayesian approaches both in synthetic and real-world datasets, and we find that it recovers the transition probabilities with higher accuracy and that it is robust even in cases when the knowledge of the topological constraint is partial. Lastly, we show that this higher accuracy improves the results for downstream network analysis tasks like cluster detection and node ranking, which highlights the practical relevance of our method for analyses of various networked systems.

Recently continuous relaxations have been proposed in order to learn Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) from data by backpropagation, instead of using combinatorial optimization. However, a number of techniques for fully discrete backpropagation could instead be applied. In this paper, we explore that direction and propose DAG-DB, a framework for learning DAGs by Discrete Backpropagation. Based on the architecture of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation [I-MLE, arXiv:2106.01798], DAG-DB adopts a probabilistic approach to the problem, sampling binary adjacency matrices from an implicit probability distribution. DAG-DB learns a parameter for the distribution from the loss incurred by each sample, performing competitively using either of two fully discrete backpropagation techniques, namely I-MLE and Straight-Through Estimation.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Finding unified complexity measures and algorithms for sample-efficient learning is a central topic of research in reinforcement learning (RL). The Decision-Estimation Coefficient (DEC) is recently proposed by Foster et al. (2021) as a necessary and sufficient complexity measure for sample-efficient no-regret RL. This paper makes progress towards a unified theory for RL with the DEC framework. First, we propose two new DEC-type complexity measures: Explorative DEC (EDEC), and Reward-Free DEC (RFDEC). We show that they are necessary and sufficient for sample-efficient PAC learning and reward-free learning, thereby extending the original DEC which only captures no-regret learning. Next, we design new unified sample-efficient algorithms for all three learning goals. Our algorithms instantiate variants of the Estimation-To-Decisions (E2D) meta-algorithm with a strong and general model estimation subroutine. Even in the no-regret setting, our algorithm E2D-TA improves upon the algorithms of Foster et al. (2021) which require either bounding a variant of the DEC which may be prohibitively large, or designing problem-specific estimation subroutines. As applications, we recover existing and obtain new sample-efficient learning results for a wide range of tractable RL problems using essentially a single algorithm. We also generalize the DEC to give sample-efficient algorithms for all-policy model estimation, with applications for learning equilibria in Markov Games. Finally, as a connection, we re-analyze two existing optimistic model-based algorithms based on Posterior Sampling or Maximum Likelihood Estimation, showing that they enjoy similar regret bounds as E2D-TA under similar structural conditions as the DEC.

In this paper, we introduce the concept of circular Pythagorean fuzzy set (value) (C-PFS(V)) as a new generalization of both circular intuitionistic fuzzy sets (C-IFSs) proposed by Atannassov and Pythagorean fuzzy sets (PFSs) proposed by Yager. A circular Pythagorean fuzzy set is represented by a circle that represents the membership degree and the non-membership degree and whose center consists of non-negative real numbers $\mu$ and $\nu$ with the condition $\mu^2+\nu^2\leq 1$. A C-PFS models the fuzziness of the uncertain information more properly thanks to its structure that allows modelling the information with points of a circle of a certain center and a radius. Therefore, a C-PFS lets decision makers to evaluate objects in a larger and more flexible region and thus more sensitive decisions can be made. After defining the concept of C-PFS we define some fundamental set operations between C-PFSs and propose some algebraic operations between C-PFVs via general $t$-norms and $t$-conorms. By utilizing these algebraic operations, we introduce some weighted aggregation operators to transform input values represented by C-PFVs to a single output value. Then to determine the degree of similarity between C-PFVs we define a cosine similarity measure based on radius. Furthermore, we develop a method to transform a collection of Pythagorean fuzzy values to a PFS. Finally, a method is given to solve multi-criteria decision making problems in circular Pythagorean fuzzy environment and the proposed method is practiced to a problem about selecting the best photovoltaic cell from the literature. We also study the comparison analysis and time complexity of the proposed method.

Machine Learning (ML) research has focused on maximizing the accuracy of predictive tasks. ML models, however, are increasingly more complex, resource intensive, and costlier to deploy in resource-constrained environments. These issues are exacerbated for prediction tasks with sequential classification on progressively transitioned stages with ''happens-before'' relation between them.We argue that it is possible to ''unfold'' a monolithic single multi-class classifier, typically trained for all stages using all data, into a series of single-stage classifiers. Each single-stage classifier can be cascaded gradually from cheaper to more expensive binary classifiers that are trained using only the necessary data modalities or features required for that stage. UnfoldML is a cost-aware and uncertainty-based dynamic 2D prediction pipeline for multi-stage classification that enables (1) navigation of the accuracy/cost tradeoff space, (2) reducing the spatio-temporal cost of inference by orders of magnitude, and (3) early prediction on proceeding stages. UnfoldML achieves orders of magnitude better cost in clinical settings, while detecting multi-stage disease development in real time. It achieves within 0.1% accuracy from the highest-performing multi-class baseline, while saving close to 20X on spatio-temporal cost of inference and earlier (3.5hrs) disease onset prediction. We also show that UnfoldML generalizes to image classification, where it can predict different level of labels (from coarse to fine) given different level of abstractions of a image, saving close to 5X cost with as little as 0.4% accuracy reduction.

Algorithmic recourse recommendations, such as Karimi et al.'s (2021) causal recourse (CR), inform stakeholders of how to act to revert unfavourable decisions. However, some actions lead to acceptance (i.e., revert the model's decision) but do not lead to improvement (i.e., may not revert the underlying real-world state). To recommend such actions is to recommend fooling the predictor. We introduce a novel method, Improvement-Focused Causal Recourse (ICR), which involves a conceptual shift: Firstly, we require ICR recommendations to guide towards improvement. Secondly, we do not tailor the recommendations to be accepted by a specific predictor. Instead, we leverage causal knowledge to design decision systems that predict accurately pre- and post-recourse. As a result, improvement guarantees translate into acceptance guarantees. We demonstrate that given correct causal knowledge, ICR, in contrast to existing approaches, guides towards both acceptance and improvement.