We study the problem of inferring user intent from noninvasive electroencephalography (EEG) to restore communication for people with severe speech and physical impairments (SSPI). The focus of this work is improving the estimation of posterior symbol probabilities in a typing task. At each iteration of the typing procedure, a subset of symbols is chosen for the next query based on the current probability estimate. Evidence about the user's response is collected from event-related potentials (ERP) in order to update symbol probabilities, until one symbol exceeds a predefined confidence threshold. We provide a graphical model describing this task, and derive a recursive Bayesian update rule based on a discriminative probability over label vectors for each query, which we approximate using a neural network classifier. We evaluate the proposed method in a simulated typing task and show that it outperforms previous approaches based on generative modeling.

Uncertainty on human behaviors poses a significant challenge to autonomous driving in crowded urban environments. The partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) offer a principled framework for planning under uncertainty, often leveraging Monte Carlo sampling to achieve online performance for complex tasks. However, sampling also raises safety concerns by potentially missing critical events. To address this, we propose a new algorithm, LEarning Attention over Driving bEhavioRs (LEADER), that learns to attend to critical human behaviors during planning. LEADER learns a neural network generator to provide attention over human behaviors in real-time situations. It integrates the attention into a belief-space planner, using importance sampling to bias reasoning towards critical events. To train the algorithm, we let the attention generator and the planner form a min-max game. By solving the min-max game, LEADER learns to perform risk-aware planning without human labeling.

When the fuzzy relation equations have a solution, we first propose an algorithm to find all minimal solutions of the fuzzy relation equations and also supply an algorithm to find all maximal solutions of the fuzzy relation equations, which will be illustrated, respectively, by numeral examples. Then we prove that every solution of the fuzzy relation equations is between a minimal solution and a maximal one, so that we describe the solution set of the fuzzy relation equations completely.

Bayesian inference applied to microseismic activity monitoring allows the accurate location of microseismic events from recorded seismograms and the estimation of the associated uncertainties. However, the forward modelling of these microseismic events, which is necessary to perform Bayesian source inversion, can be prohibitively expensive in terms of computational resources. A viable solution is to train a surrogate model based on machine learning techniques, to emulate the forward model and thus accelerate Bayesian inference. In this paper, we substantially enhance previous work, which considered only sources with isotropic moment tensors. We train a machine learning algorithm on the power spectrum of the recorded pressure wave and show that the trained emulator allows complete and fast event locations for $\textit{any}$ source mechanism. Moreover, we show that our approach is computationally inexpensive, as it can be run in less than 1 hour on a commercial laptop, while yielding accurate results using less than $10^4$ training seismograms. We additionally demonstrate how the trained emulators can be used to identify the source mechanism through the estimation of the Bayesian evidence. Finally, we demonstrate that our approach is robust to real noise as measured in field data. This work lays the foundations for efficient, accurate future joint determinations of event location and moment tensor, and associated uncertainties, which are ultimately key for accurately characterising human-induced and natural earthquakes, and for enhanced quantitative seismic hazard assessments.

Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) models have seen increased attention in recent years as a general-purpose nonparametric modeling technique. BART combines the flexibility of modern machine learning techniques with the principled uncertainty quantification of Bayesian inference, and it has been shown to be uniquely appropriate for addressing the high-noise problems that occur commonly in many areas of science, including medicine and the social sciences. This paper introduces the SoftBart package for fitting the Soft BART algorithm of Linero and Yang (2018). In addition to improving upon the predictive performance of other BART packages, a major goal of this package has been to facilitate the inclusion of BART in larger models, making it ideal for researchers in Bayesian statistics. I show both how to use this package for standard prediction tasks and how to embed BART models in larger models; I illustrate by using SoftBart to implement a nonparametric probit regression model, a semiparametric varying coefficient model, and a partial linear model.

A fuzzy inference system was developed for predicting the heat index from temperature and relative humidity data. The effectiveness of fuzzy logic in using imprecise mapping of input to output to encode interconnectedness of system variables was exploited to uncover a linguistic model of how the temperature and humidity conditions impact the heat index in a growth room. The developed model achieved an R2 of 0.974 and a RMSE of 0.084 when evaluated on a test set, and the results were statistically significant (F1,5915 = 222900.858, p < 0.001). By providing the advantage of linguistic summarization of data trends as well as high prediction accuracy, the fuzzy logic model proved to be an effective machine learning method for heat control problems.

This paper addresses the problem of fault diagnosis in multistation assembly systems. Fault diagnosis is to identify process faults that cause the excessive dimensional variation of the product using dimensional measurements. For such problems, the challenge is solving an underdetermined system caused by a common phenomenon in practice; namely, the number of measurements is less than that of the process errors. To address this challenge, this paper attempts to solve the following two problems: (1) how to utilize the temporal correlation in the time series data of each process error and (2) how to apply prior knowledge regarding which process errors are more likely to be process faults. A novel sparse Bayesian learning method is proposed to achieve the above objectives. The method consists of three hierarchical layers. The first layer has parameterized prior distribution that exploits the temporal correlation of each process error. Furthermore, the second and third layers achieve the prior distribution representing the prior knowledge of process faults. Then, these prior distributions are updated with the likelihood function of the measurement samples from the process, resulting in the accurate posterior distribution of process faults from an underdetermined system. Since posterior distributions of process faults are intractable, this paper derives approximate posterior distributions via Variational Bayes inference. Numerical and simulation case studies using an actual autobody assembly process are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

The estimation of the amount of uncertainty featured by predictive machine learning models has acquired a great momentum in recent years. Uncertainty estimation provides the user with augmented information about the model's confidence in its predicted outcome. Despite the inherent utility of this information for the trustworthiness of the user, there is a thin consensus around the different types of uncertainty that one can gauge in machine learning models and the suitability of different techniques that can be used to quantify the uncertainty of a specific model. This subject is mostly non existent within the traffic modeling domain, even though the measurement of the confidence associated to traffic forecasts can favor significantly their actionability in practical traffic management systems. This work aims to cover this lack of research by reviewing different techniques and metrics of uncertainty available in the literature, and by critically discussing how confidence levels computed for traffic forecasting models can be helpful for researchers and practitioners working in this research area. To shed light with empirical evidence, this critical discussion is further informed by experimental results produced by different uncertainty estimation techniques over real traffic data collected in Madrid (Spain), rendering a general overview of the benefits and caveats of every technique, how they can be compared to each other, and how the measured uncertainty decreases depending on the amount, quality and diversity of data used to produce the forecasts.

Cardiovascular activities are directly related to the response of a body in a stressed condition. Stress, based on its intensity, can be divided into two types i.e. Acute stress (short-term stress) and Chronic stress (long-term stress). Repeated acute stress and continuous chronic stress may play a vital role in inflammation in the circulatory system and thus leads to a heart attack or to a stroke. In this study, we have reviewed commonly used machine learning classification techniques applied to different stress-indicating parameters used in stress monitoring devices. These parameters include Photoplethysmograph (PPG), Electrocardiographs (ECG), Electromyograph (EMG), Galvanic Skin Response (GSR), Heart Rate Variation (HRV), skin temperature, respiratory rate, Electroencephalograph (EEG) and salivary cortisol, used in stress monitoring devices. This study also provides a discussion on choosing a classifier, which depends upon a number of factors other than accuracy, like the number of subjects involved in an experiment, type of signals processing and computational limitations.

Self-supervised representation learning (SSL) methods provide an effective label-free initial condition for fine-tuning downstream tasks. However, in numerous realistic scenarios, the downstream task might be biased with respect to the target label distribution. This in turn moves the learned fine-tuned model posterior away from the initial (label) bias-free self-supervised model posterior. In this work, we re-interpret SSL fine-tuning under the lens of Bayesian continual learning and consider regularization through the Elastic Weight Consolidation (EWC) framework. We demonstrate that self-regularization against an initial SSL backbone improves worst sub-group performance in Waterbirds by 5% and Celeb-A by 2% when using the ViT-B/16 architecture. Furthermore, to help simplify the use of EWC with SSL, we pre-compute and publicly release the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM), evaluated with 10,000 ImageNet-1K variates evaluated on large modern SSL architectures including ViT-B/16 and ResNet50 trained with DINO.