Bayesian methods of sampling from a posterior distribution are becoming increasingly popular due to their ability to precisely display the uncertainty of a model fit. Classical methods based on iterative random sampling and posterior evaluation such as Metropolis-Hastings are known to have desirable long run mixing properties, however are slow to converge. Gradient based methods, such as Langevin Dynamics (and its stochastic gradient counterpart) exhibit favorable dimension-dependence and fast mixing times for log-concave, and "close" to log-concave distributions, however also have long escape times from local minimizers. Many contemporary applications such as Bayesian Neural Networks are both high-dimensional and highly multimodal. In this paper we investigate the performance of a hybrid Metropolis and Langevin sampling method akin to Jump Diffusion on a range of synthetic and real data, indicating that careful calibration of mixing sampling jumps with gradient based chains significantly outperforms both pure gradient-based or sampling based schemes.

There has been intensive research regarding machine learning models for predicting bankruptcy in recent years. However, the lack of interpretability limits their growth and practical implementation. This study proposes a data-driven explainable case-based reasoning (CBR) system for bankruptcy prediction. Empirical results from a comparative study show that the proposed approach performs superior to existing, alternative CBR systems and is competitive with state-of-the-art machine learning models. We also demonstrate that the asymmetrical feature similarity comparison mechanism in the proposed CBR system can effectively capture the asymmetrically distributed nature of financial attributes, such as a few companies controlling more cash than the majority, hence improving both the accuracy and explainability of predictions. In addition, we delicately examine the explainability of the CBR system in the decision-making process of bankruptcy prediction. While much research suggests a trade-off between improving prediction accuracy and explainability, our findings show a prospective research avenue in which an explainable model that thoroughly incorporates data attributes by design can reconcile the dilemma.

The optimization of high-dimensional black-box functions is a challenging problem. When a low-dimensional linear embedding structure can be assumed, existing Bayesian optimization (BO) methods often transform the original problem into optimization in a low-dimensional space. They exploit the low-dimensional structure and reduce the computational burden. However, we reveal that this approach could be limited or inefficient in exploring the high-dimensional space mainly due to the biased reconstruction of the high-dimensional queries from the low-dimensional queries. In this paper, we investigate a simple alternative approach: tackling the problem in the original high-dimensional space using the information from the learned low-dimensional structure. We provide a theoretical analysis of the exploration ability. Furthermore, we show that our method is applicable to batch optimization problems with thousands of dimensions without any computational difficulty. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on high-dimensional benchmarks and a real-world function.

Purpose: we evaluated the generalization capability of deep neural networks (DNNs), trained to classify chest X-rays as Covid-19, normal or pneumonia, using a relatively small and mixed dataset. Methods: we proposed a DNN to perform lung segmentation and classification, stacking a segmentation module (U-Net), an original intermediate module and a classification module (DenseNet201). To evaluate generalization, we tested the DNN with an external dataset (from distinct localities) and used Bayesian inference to estimate probability distributions of performance metrics. Results: our DNN achieved 0.917 AUC on the external test dataset, and a DenseNet without segmentation, 0.906. Bayesian inference indicated mean accuracy of 76.1% and [0.695, 0.826] 95% HDI (highest density interval, which concentrates 95% of the metric's probability mass) with segmentation and, without segmentation, 71.7% and [0.646, 0.786]. Conclusion: employing a novel DNN evaluation technique, which uses LRP and Brixia scores, we discovered that areas where radiologists found strong Covid-19 symptoms are the most important for the stacked DNN classification. External validation showed smaller accuracies than internal, indicating difficulty in generalization, which is positively affected by segmentation. Finally, the performance in the external dataset and the analysis with LRP suggest that DNNs can be trained in small and mixed datasets and still successfully detect Covid-19.

The counterfactual distribution models the effect of the treatment in the untreated group. While most of the work focuses on the expected values of the treatment effect, one may be interested in the whole counterfactual distribution or other quantities associated to it. Building on the framework of Bayesian conditional mean embeddings, we propose a Bayesian approach for modeling the counterfactual distribution, which leads to quantifying the epistemic uncertainty about the distribution. The framework naturally extends to the setting where one observes multiple treatment effects (e.g. an intermediate effect after an interim period, and an ultimate treatment effect which is of main interest) and allows for additionally modelling uncertainty about the relationship of these effects. For such goal, we present three novel Bayesian methods to estimate the expectation of the ultimate treatment effect, when only noisy samples of the dependence between intermediate and ultimate effects are provided. These methods differ on the source of uncertainty considered and allow for combining two sources of data. Moreover, we generalize these ideas to the off-policy evaluation framework, which can be seen as an extension of the counterfactual estimation problem. We empirically explore the calibration of the algorithms in two different experimental settings which require data fusion, and illustrate the value of considering the uncertainty stemming from the two sources of data.

The scale ambiguity problem is inherently unsolvable to monocular SLAM without the metric baseline between moving cameras. In this paper, we present a novel scale estimation approach based on an object-level SLAM system. To obtain the absolute scale of the reconstructed map, we derive a nonlinear optimization method to make the scaled dimensions of objects conforming to the distribution of their sizes in the physical world, without relying on any prior information of gravity direction. We adopt the dual quadric to represent objects for its ability to fit objects compactly and accurately. In the proposed monocular object-level SLAM system, dual quadrics are fastly initialized based on constraints of 2-D detections and fitted oriented bounding box and are further optimized to provide reliable dimensions for scale estimation.

Among the main features of biological intelligence are energy efficiency, capacity for continual adaptation, and risk management via uncertainty quantification. Neuromorphic engineering has been thus far mostly driven by the goal of implementing energy-efficient machines that take inspiration from the time-based computing paradigm of biological brains. In this paper, we take steps towards the design of neuromorphic systems that are capable of adaptation to changing learning tasks, while producing well-calibrated uncertainty quantification estimates. To this end, we derive online learning rules for spiking neural networks (SNNs) within a Bayesian continual learning framework. In it, each synaptic weight is represented by parameters that quantify the current epistemic uncertainty resulting from prior knowledge and observed data. The proposed online rules update the distribution parameters in a streaming fashion as data are observed. We instantiate the proposed approach for both real-valued and binary synaptic weights. Experimental results using Intel's Lava platform show the merits of Bayesian over frequentist learning in terms of capacity for adaptation and uncertainty quantification.

Informed machine learning methods allow the integration of prior knowledge into learning systems. This can increase accuracy and robustness or reduce data needs. However, existing methods often assume hard constraining knowledge, that does not require to trade-off prior knowledge with observations, but can be used to directly reduce the problem space. Other approaches use specific, architectural changes as representation of prior knowledge, limiting applicability. We propose an informed machine learning method, based on continual learning. This allows the integration of arbitrary, prior knowledge, potentially from multiple sources, and does not require specific architectures. Furthermore, our approach enables probabilistic and multi-modal predictions, that can improve predictive accuracy and robustness. We exemplify our approach by applying it to a state-of-the-art trajectory predictor for autonomous driving. This domain is especially dependent on informed learning approaches, as it is subject to an overwhelming large variety of possible environments and very rare events, while requiring robust and accurate predictions. We evaluate our model on a commonly used benchmark dataset, only using data already available in a conventional setup. We show that our method outperforms both non-informed and informed learning methods, that are often used in the literature. Furthermore, we are able to compete with a conventional baseline, even using half as many observation examples.

Intense debate in the Neurology community before 2010 culminated in hypothetical models of Alzheimer's disease progression: a pathophysiological cascade of biomarkers, each dynamic for only a segment of the full disease timeline. Inspired by this, data-driven disease progression modelling emerged from the computer science community with the aim to reconstruct neurodegenerative disease timelines using data from large cohorts of patients, healthy controls, and prodromal/at-risk individuals. This chapter describes selected highlights from the field, with a focus on utility for understanding and forecasting of disease progression.

Author names often suffer from ambiguity owing to the same author appearing under different names and multiple authors possessing similar names. It creates difficulty in associating a scholarly work with the person who wrote it, thereby introducing inaccuracy in credit attribution, bibliometric analysis, search-by-author in a digital library, and expert discovery. A plethora of techniques for disambiguation of author names have been proposed in the literature. I try to focus on the research efforts targeted to disambiguate author names. I first go through the conventional methods, then I discuss evaluation techniques and the clustering model which finally leads to the Bayesian learning and Greedy agglomerative approach. I believe this concentrated review will be useful for the research community because it discusses techniques applied to a very large real database that is actively used worldwide. The Bayesian and the greedy agglomerative approach used will help to tackle AND problems in a better way. Finally, I try to outline a few directions for future work.