Paleoclimatology -- the study of past climate -- is relevant beyond climate science itself, such as in archaeology and anthropology for understanding past human dispersal. Information about the Earth's paleoclimate comes from simulations of physical and biogeochemical processes and from proxy records found in naturally occurring archives. Climate-field reconstructions (CFRs) combine these data into a statistical spatial or spatiotemporal model. To date, there exists no consensus spatiotemporal paleoclimate model that is continuous in space and time, produces predictions with uncertainty, and can include data from various sources. A Gaussian process (GP) model would have these desired properties; however, GPs scale unfavorably with data of the magnitude typical for building CFRs. We propose to build on recent advances in sparse spatiotemporal GPs that reduce the computational burden by combining variational methods based on inducing variables with the state-space formulation of GPs. We successfully employ such a doubly sparse GP to construct a probabilistic model of European paleoclimate from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the mid-Holocene (MH) that synthesizes paleoclimate simulations and fossilized pollen proxy data.

Interpretable machine learning (IML) is concerned with the behavior and the properties of machine learning models. Scientists, however, are only interested in models as a gateway to understanding phenomena. Our work aligns these two perspectives and shows how to design IML property descriptors. These descriptors are IML methods that provide insight not just into the model, but also into the properties of the phenomenon the model is designed to represent. We argue that IML is necessary for scientific inference with ML models because their elements do not individually represent phenomenon properties; instead, the model in its entirety does. However, current IML research often conflates two goals of model analysis -- model audit and scientific inference -- making it unclear which model interpretations can be used to learn about phenomena. Building on statistical decision theory, we show that IML property descriptors applied on a model provide access to relevant aspects of the joint probability distribution of the data. We identify what questions such descriptors can address, provide a guide to building appropriate descriptors and quantify their epistemic uncertainty.

In brain-computer interfaces (BCI), most of the approaches based on event-related potential (ERP) focus on the detection of P300, aiming for single trial classification for a speller task. While this is an important objective, existing P300 BCI still require several repetitions to achieve a correct classification accuracy. Signal processing and machine learning advances in P300 BCI mostly revolve around the P300 detection part, leaving the character classification out of the scope. To reduce the number of repetitions while maintaining a good character classification, it is critical to embrace the full classification problem. We introduce an end-to-end pipeline, starting from feature extraction, and is composed of an ERP-level classification using probabilistic Riemannian MDM which feeds a character-level classification using Bayesian accumulation of confidence across trials. Whereas existing approaches only increase the confidence of a character when it is flashed, our new pipeline, called Bayesian accumulation of Riemannian probabilities (ASAP), update the confidence of each character after each flash. We provide the proper derivation and theoretical reformulation of this Bayesian approach for a seamless processing of information from signal to BCI characters. We demonstrate that our approach performs significantly better than standard methods on public P300 datasets.

This course is about the discussion of sampling and exploring data, as well as basic probability theory and Bayes' rule. A variety of exploratory data analysis techniques will be covered, including numeric summary statistics and basic data visualization. The concepts and techniques you will find in this course will serve as building blocks for the inference and modeling courses in the Specialization.

Equipping artificial agents with useful exploration mechanisms remains a challenge to this day. Humans, on the other hand, seem to manage the trade-off between exploration and exploitation effortlessly. In the present article, we put forward the hypothesis that they accomplish this by making optimal use of limited computational resources. We study this hypothesis by meta-learning reinforcement learning algorithms that sacrifice performance for a shorter description length (defined as the number of bits required to implement the given algorithm). The emerging class of models captures human exploration behavior better than previously considered approaches, such as Boltzmann exploration, upper confidence bound algorithms, and Thompson sampling. We additionally demonstrate that changing the description length in our class of models produces the intended effects: reducing description length captures the behavior of brain-lesioned patients while increasing it mirrors cognitive development during adolescence.

Human lives are increasingly being affected by the outcomes of automated decision-making systems and it is essential for the latter to be, not only accurate, but also fair. The literature of algorithmic fairness has grown considerably over the last decade, where most of the approaches are evaluated under the strong assumption that the train and test samples are independently and identically drawn from the same underlying distribution. However, in practice, dissimilarity between the training and deployment environments exists, which compromises the performance of the decision-making algorithm as well as its fairness guarantees in the deployment data. There is an emergent research line that studies how to preserve fairness guarantees when the data generating processes differ between the source (train) and target (test) domains, which is growing remarkably. With this survey, we aim to provide a wide and unifying overview on the topic. For such purpose, we propose a taxonomy of the existing approaches for fair classification under distribution shift, highlight benchmarking alternatives, point out the relation with other similar research fields and eventually, identify future venues of research.

The last decade's research in artificial intelligence had a significant impact on the advance of autonomous driving. Yet, safety remains a major concern when it comes to deploying such systems in high-risk environments. The objective of this thesis is to develop methodological tools which provide reliable uncertainty estimates for deep neural networks. First, we introduce a new criterion to reliably estimate model confidence: the true class probability (TCP). We show that TCP offers better properties for failure prediction than current uncertainty measures. Since the true class is by essence unknown at test time, we propose to learn TCP criterion from data with an auxiliary model, introducing a specific learning scheme adapted to this context. The relevance of the proposed approach is validated on image classification and semantic segmentation datasets. Then, we extend our learned confidence approach to the task of domain adaptation where it improves the selection of pseudo-labels in self-training methods. Finally, we tackle the challenge of jointly detecting misclassification and out-of-distributions samples by introducing a new uncertainty measure based on evidential models and defined on the simplex.

An example of counterfactual statement is "I got no effect since I made no action but something would have happened had I acted". Counterfactuals are used in many fields, ranging from algorithmic recourse [Karimi et al., 2021] to online advertisement and customer relationship management [Li and Pearl, 2019]. Counterfactuals have been formally defined in terms of structural causal models by Pearl [2009]. Nevertheless, since a counterfactual statement cannot be directly observed, the research focuses on estimating or bounding their probability (e.g. the probability that we have an effect given a treatment and no effect else). The probability of some specific counterfactual expressions have been studied in the literature [Tian and Pearl, 2000] because of their relevance in causal decision-making. The probability of necessity (PN) is the probability that an event y would not have occurred in the absence of an action or treatment t, given that y and t in fact occurred. Conversely, the probability of sufficiency (PS) is the probability that event y would have occurred in the presence of an action t, given that both y and t in fact did not occur. Lastly, the probability of necessity and sufficiency (PNS) is the probability that the event y occurs if and only if the event t occurs. In the case of incomplete knowledge about the causal model, identification procedures indicate when and how the probability of counterfactuals can be computed from a combination of observational data, experimental data (i.e.

We present a Bayesian graph neural network (BGNN) that can estimate the weak lensing convergence ($\kappa$) from photometric measurements of galaxies along a given line of sight. The method is of particular interest in strong gravitational time delay cosmography (TDC), where characterizing the "external convergence" ($\kappa_{\rm ext}$) from the lens environment and line of sight is necessary for precise inference of the Hubble constant ($H_0$). Starting from a large-scale simulation with a $\kappa$ resolution of $\sim$1$'$, we introduce fluctuations on galaxy-galaxy lensing scales of $\sim$1$''$ and extract random sightlines to train our BGNN. We then evaluate the model on test sets with varying degrees of overlap with the training distribution. For each test set of 1,000 sightlines, the BGNN infers the individual $\kappa$ posteriors, which we combine in a hierarchical Bayesian model to yield constraints on the hyperparameters governing the population. For a test field well sampled by the training set, the BGNN recovers the population mean of $\kappa$ precisely and without bias, resulting in a contribution to the $H_0$ error budget well under 1\%. In the tails of the training set with sparse samples, the BGNN, which can ingest all available information about each sightline, extracts more $\kappa$ signal compared to a simplified version of the traditional method based on matching galaxy number counts, which is limited by sample variance. Our hierarchical inference pipeline using BGNNs promises to improve the $\kappa_{\rm ext}$ characterization for precision TDC. The implementation of our pipeline is available as a public Python package, Node to Joy.

In this paper, we propose a general framework for designing sensing matrix $\boldsymbol{A} \in \mathbb{R}^{d\times p}$, for estimation of sparse covariance matrix from compressed measurements of the form $\boldsymbol{y} = \boldsymbol{A}\boldsymbol{x} + \boldsymbol{n}$, where $\boldsymbol{y}, \boldsymbol{n} \in \mathbb{R}^d$, and $\boldsymbol{x} \in \mathbb{R}^p$. By viewing covariance recovery as inference over factor graphs via message passing algorithm, ideas from coding theory, such as \textit{Density Evolution} (DE), are leveraged to construct a framework for the design of the sensing matrix. The proposed framework can handle both (1) regular sensing, i.e., equal importance is given to all entries of the covariance, and (2) preferential sensing, i.e., higher importance is given to a part of the covariance matrix. Through experiments, we show that the sensing matrix designed via density evolution can match the state-of-the-art for covariance recovery in the regular sensing paradigm and attain improved performance in the preferential sensing regime. Additionally, we study the feasibility of causal graph structure recovery using the estimated covariance matrix obtained from the compressed measurements.