Estimating the uncertainty in deep neural network predictions is crucial for many real-world applications. A common approach to model uncertainty is to choose a parametric distribution and fit the data to it using maximum likelihood estimation. The chosen parametric form can be a poor fit to the data-generating distribution, resulting in unreliable uncertainty estimates. In this work, we propose SampleNet, a flexible and scalable architecture for modeling uncertainty that avoids specifying a parametric form on the output distribution. SampleNets do so by defining an empirical distribution using samples that are learned with the Energy Score and regularized with the Sinkhorn Divergence. SampleNets are shown to be able to well-fit a wide range of distributions and to outperform baselines on large-scale real-world regression tasks.

Agent-Based Models (ABMs) are used in several fields to study the evolution of complex systems from micro-level assumptions. However, ABMs typically can not estimate agent-specific (or "micro") variables: this is a major limitation which prevents ABMs from harnessing micro-level data availability and which greatly limits their predictive power. In this paper, we propose a protocol to learn the latent micro-variables of an ABM from data. The first step of our protocol is to reduce an ABM to a probabilistic model, characterized by a computationally tractable likelihood. This reduction follows two general design principles: balance of stochasticity and data availability, and replacement of unobservable discrete choices with differentiable approximations. Then, our protocol proceeds by maximizing the likelihood of the latent variables via a gradient-based expectation maximization algorithm. We demonstrate our protocol by applying it to an ABM of the housing market, in which agents with different incomes bid higher prices to live in high-income neighborhoods. We demonstrate that the obtained model allows accurate estimates of the latent variables, while preserving the general behavior of the ABM. We also show that our estimates can be used for out-of-sample forecasting. Our protocol can be seen as an alternative to black-box data assimilation methods, that forces the modeler to lay bare the assumptions of the model, to think about the inferential process, and to spot potential identification problems.

Federated Learning enables multiple data centers to train a central model collaboratively without exposing any confidential data. Even though deterministic models are capable of performing high prediction accuracy, their lack of calibration and capability to quantify uncertainty is problematic for safety-critical applications. Different from deterministic models, probabilistic models such as Bayesian neural networks are relatively well-calibrated and able to quantify uncertainty alongside their competitive prediction accuracy. Both of the approaches appear in the federated learning framework; however, the aggregation scheme of deterministic models cannot be directly applied to probabilistic models since weights correspond to distributions instead of point estimates. In this work, we study the effects of various aggregation schemes for variational Bayesian neural networks. With empirical results on three image classification datasets, we observe that the degree of spread for an aggregated distribution is a significant factor in the learning process. Hence, we present an survey on the question of how to combine variational Bayesian networks in federated learning, while providing computer vision classification benchmarks for different aggregation settings.

Offline reinforcement learning, which aims at optimizing sequential decision-making strategies with historical data, has been extensively applied in real-life applications. State-Of-The-Art algorithms usually leverage powerful function approximators (e.g. neural networks) to alleviate the sample complexity hurdle for better empirical performances. Despite the successes, a more systematic understanding of the statistical complexity for function approximation remains lacking. Towards bridging the gap, we take a step by considering offline reinforcement learning with differentiable function class approximation (DFA). This function class naturally incorporates a wide range of models with nonlinear/nonconvex structures. Most importantly, we show offline RL with differentiable function approximation is provably efficient by analyzing the pessimistic fitted Q-learning (PFQL) algorithm, and our results provide the theoretical basis for understanding a variety of practical heuristics that rely on Fitted Q-Iteration style design. In addition, we further improve our guarantee with a tighter instance-dependent characterization. We hope our work could draw interest in studying reinforcement learning with differentiable function approximation beyond the scope of current research.

We mimic the cognitive ability of Human perception, based on Bayesian hypothesis, to recognize view-based 3D objects. We consider approximate Bayesian (Empirical Bayesian) for perceptual inference for recognition. We essentially handle computation with perception.

We study the optimization landscape of the log-likelihood function and the convergence of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in latent Gaussian tree models, i.e. tree-structured Gaussian graphical models whose leaf nodes are observable and non-leaf nodes are unobservable. We show that the unique non-trivial stationary point of the population log-likelihood is its global maximum, and establish that the expectation-maximization algorithm is guaranteed to converge to it in the single latent variable case. Our results for the landscape of the log-likelihood function in general latent tree models provide support for the extensive practical use of maximum likelihood based-methods in this setting. Our results for the EM algorithm extend an emerging line of work on obtaining global convergence guarantees for this celebrated algorithm. We show our results for the non-trivial stationary points of the log-likelihood by arguing that a certain system of polynomial equations obtained from the EM updates has a unique non-trivial solution. The global convergence of the EM algorithm follows by arguing that all trivial fixed points are higher-order saddle points.

In maximum-likelihood quantum state tomography, both the sample size and dimension grow exponentially with the number of qubits. It is therefore desirable to develop a stochastic first-order method, just like stochastic gradient descent for modern machine learning, to compute the maximum-likelihood estimate. To this end, we propose an algorithm called stochastic mirror descent with the Burg entropy. Its expected optimization error vanishes at a $O ( \sqrt{ ( 1 / t ) d \log t } )$ rate, where $d$ and $t$ denote the dimension and number of iterations, respectively. Its per-iteration time complexity is $O ( d^3 )$, independent of the sample size. To the best of our knowledge, this is currently the computationally fastest stochastic first-order method for maximum-likelihood quantum state tomography.

Precision measurements and new physics searches at the Large Hadron Collider require efficient simulations of particle propagation and interactions within the detectors. The most computationally expensive simulations involve calorimeter showers. Advances in deep generative modelling - particularly in the realm of high-dimensional data - have opened the possibility of generating realistic calorimeter showers orders of magnitude more quickly than physics-based simulation. However, the high-dimensional representation of showers belies the relative simplicity and structure of the underlying physical laws. This phenomenon is yet another example of the manifold hypothesis from machine learning, which states that high-dimensional data is supported on low-dimensional manifolds. We thus propose modelling calorimeter showers first by learning their manifold structure, and then estimating the density of data across this manifold. Learning manifold structure reduces the dimensionality of the data, which enables fast training and generation when compared with competing methods.

Recent research in robust optimization has shown an overfitting-like phenomenon in which models trained against adversarial attacks exhibit higher robustness on the training set compared to the test set. Although previous work provided theoretical explanations for this phenomenon using a robust PAC-Bayesian bound over the adversarial test error, related algorithmic derivations are at best only loosely connected to this bound, which implies that there is still a gap between their empirical success and our understanding of adversarial robustness theory. To close this gap, in this paper we consider a different form of the robust PAC-Bayesian bound and directly minimize it with respect to the model posterior. The derivation of the optimal solution connects PAC-Bayesian learning to the geometry of the robust loss surface through a Trace of Hessian (TrH) regularizer that measures the surface flatness. In practice, we restrict the TrH regularizer to the top layer only, which results in an analytical solution to the bound whose computational cost does not depend on the network depth. Finally, we evaluate our TrH regularization approach over CIFAR-10/100 and ImageNet using Vision Transformers (ViT) and compare against baseline adversarial robustness algorithms. Experimental results show that TrH regularization leads to improved ViT robustness that either matches or surpasses previous state-of-the-art approaches while at the same time requires less memory and computational cost.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a tractable representation of probability distributions allowing for exact and efficient computation of likelihoods and marginals. There has been significant recent progress on improving the scale and expressiveness of PCs. However, PC training performance plateaus as model size increases. We discover that most capacity in existing large PC structures is wasted: fully-connected parameter layers are only sparsely used. We propose two operations: pruning and growing, that exploit the sparsity of PC structures. Specifically, the pruning operation removes unimportant sub-networks of the PC for model compression and comes with theoretical guarantees. The growing operation increases model capacity by increasing the size of the latent space. By alternatingly applying pruning and growing, we increase the capacity that is meaningfully used, allowing us to significantly scale up PC learning. Empirically, our learner achieves state-of-the-art likelihoods on MNIST-family image datasets and on Penn Tree Bank language data compared to other PC learners and less tractable deep generative models such as flow-based models and variational autoencoders (VAEs).