Uncertainty
On the Complexity of Bayesian Generalization
Shi, Yu-Zhe, Xu, Manjie, Hopcroft, John E., He, Kun, Tenenbaum, Joshua B., Zhu, Song-Chun, Wu, Ying Nian, Han, Wenjuan, Zhu, Yixin
We consider concept generalization at a large scale in the diverse and natural visual spectrum. Established computational modes (i.e., rule-based or similarity-based) are primarily studied isolated and focus on confined and abstract problem spaces. In this work, we study these two modes when the problem space scales up, and the $complexity$ of concepts becomes diverse. Specifically, at the $representational \ level$, we seek to answer how the complexity varies when a visual concept is mapped to the representation space. Prior psychology literature has shown that two types of complexities (i.e., subjective complexity and visual complexity) (Griffiths and Tenenbaum, 2003) build an inverted-U relation (Donderi, 2006; Sun and Firestone, 2021). Leveraging Representativeness of Attribute (RoA), we computationally confirm the following observation: Models use attributes with high RoA to describe visual concepts, and the description length falls in an inverted-U relation with the increment in visual complexity. At the $computational \ level$, we aim to answer how the complexity of representation affects the shift between the rule- and similarity-based generalization. We hypothesize that category-conditioned visual modeling estimates the co-occurrence frequency between visual and categorical attributes, thus potentially serving as the prior for the natural visual world. Experimental results show that representations with relatively high subjective complexity outperform those with relatively low subjective complexity in the rule-based generalization, while the trend is the opposite in the similarity-based generalization.
Asymptotic Properties for Bayesian Neural Network in Besov Space
Neural networks have shown great predictive power when dealing with various unstructured data such as images and natural languages. The Bayesian neural network captures the uncertainty of prediction by putting a prior distribution for the parameter of the model and computing the posterior distribution. In this paper, we show that the Bayesian neural network using spike-and-slab prior has consistency with nearly minimax convergence rate when the true regression function is in the Besov space. Even when the smoothness of the regression function is unknown the same posterior convergence rate holds and thus the spike-and-slab prior is adaptive to the smoothness of the regression function. We also consider the shrinkage prior, which is more feasible than other priors, and show that it has the same convergence rate. In other words, we propose a practical Bayesian neural network with guaranteed asymptotic properties.
Interpretable by Design: Learning Predictors by Composing Interpretable Queries
Chattopadhyay, Aditya, Slocum, Stewart, Haeffele, Benjamin D., Vidal, Rene, Geman, Donald
There is a growing concern about typically opaque decision-making with high-performance machine learning algorithms. Providing an explanation of the reasoning process in domain-specific terms can be crucial for adoption in risk-sensitive domains such as healthcare. We argue that machine learning algorithms should be interpretable by design and that the language in which these interpretations are expressed should be domain- and task-dependent. Consequently, we base our model's prediction on a family of user-defined and task-specific binary functions of the data, each having a clear interpretation to the end-user. We then minimize the expected number of queries needed for accurate prediction on any given input. As the solution is generally intractable, following prior work, we choose the queries sequentially based on information gain. However, in contrast to previous work, we need not assume the queries are conditionally independent. Instead, we leverage a stochastic generative model (VAE) and an MCMC algorithm (Unadjusted Langevin) to select the most informative query about the input based on previous query-answers. This enables the online determination of a query chain of whatever depth is required to resolve prediction ambiguities. Finally, experiments on vision and NLP tasks demonstrate the efficacy of our approach and its superiority over post-hoc explanations.
Evaluation of the impact of the indiscernibility relation on the fuzzy-rough nearest neighbours algorithm
Bollaert, Henri, Cornelis, Chris
Fuzzy rough sets are well-suited for working with vague, imprecise or uncertain information and have been succesfully applied in real-world classification problems. One of the prominent representatives of this theory is fuzzy-rough nearest neighbours (FRNN), a classification algorithm based on the classical k-nearest neighbours algorithm. The crux of FRNN is the indiscernibility relation, which measures how similar two elements in the data set of interest are. In this paper, we investigate the impact of this indiscernibility relation on the performance of FRNN classification. In addition to relations based on distance functions and kernels, we also explore the effect of distance metric learning on FRNN for the first time. Furthermore, we also introduce an asymmetric, class-specific relation based on the Mahalanobis distance which uses the correlation within each class, and which shows a significant improvement over the regular Mahalanobis distance, but is still beaten by the Manhattan distance. Overall, the Neighbourhood Components Analysis algorithm is found to be the best performer, trading speed for accuracy.
Efficient identification of informative features in simulation-based inference
Beck, Jonas, Deistler, Michael, Bernaerts, Yves, Macke, Jakob, Berens, Philipp
Simulation-based Bayesian inference (SBI) can be used to estimate the parameters of complex mechanistic models given observed model outputs without requiring access to explicit likelihood evaluations. A prime example for the application of SBI in neuroscience involves estimating the parameters governing the response dynamics of Hodgkin-Huxley (HH) models from electrophysiological measurements, by inferring a posterior over the parameters that is consistent with a set of observations. To this end, many SBI methods employ a set of summary statistics or scientifically interpretable features to estimate a surrogate likelihood or posterior. However, currently, there is no way to identify how much each summary statistic or feature contributes to reducing posterior uncertainty. To address this challenge, one could simply compare the posteriors with and without a given feature included in the inference process. However, for large or nested feature sets, this would necessitate repeatedly estimating the posterior, which is computationally expensive or even prohibitive. Here, we provide a more efficient approach based on the SBI method neural likelihood estimation (NLE): We show that one can marginalize the trained surrogate likelihood post-hoc before inferring the posterior to assess the contribution of a feature. We demonstrate the usefulness of our method by identifying the most important features for inferring parameters of an example HH neuron model. Beyond neuroscience, our method is generally applicable to SBI workflows that rely on data features for inference used in other scientific fields.
Social Interactions for Autonomous Driving: A Review and Perspectives
Wang, Wenshuo, Wang, Letian, Zhang, Chengyuan, Liu, Changliu, Sun, Lijun
No human drives a car in a vacuum; she/he must negotiate with other road users to achieve their goals in social traffic scenes. A rational human driver can interact with other road users in a socially-compatible way through implicit communications to complete their driving tasks smoothly in interaction-intensive, safety-critical environments. This paper aims to review the existing approaches and theories to help understand and rethink the interactions among human drivers toward social autonomous driving. We take this survey to seek the answers to a series of fundamental questions: 1) What is social interaction in road traffic scenes? 2) How to measure and evaluate social interaction? 3) How to model and reveal the process of social interaction? 4) How do human drivers reach an implicit agreement and negotiate smoothly in social interaction? This paper reviews various approaches to modeling and learning the social interactions between human drivers, ranging from optimization theory and graphical models to social force theory and behavioral & cognitive science. We also highlight some new directions, critical challenges, and opening questions for future research.
Personalized Federated Learning with Hidden Information on Personalized Prior
Shi, Mingjia, Zhou, Yuhao, Ye, Qing, Lv, Jiancheng
Federated learning (FL for simplification) is a distributed machine learning technique that utilizes global servers and collaborative clients to achieve privacy-preserving global model training without direct data sharing. However, heterogeneous data problem, as one of FL's main problems, makes it difficult for the global model to perform effectively on each client's local data. Thus, personalized federated learning (PFL for simplification) aims to improve the performance of the model on local data as much as possible. Bayesian learning, where the parameters of the model are seen as random variables with a prior assumption, is a feasible solution to the heterogeneous data problem due to the tendency that the more local data the model use, the more it focuses on the local data, otherwise focuses on the prior. When Bayesian learning is applied to PFL, the global model provides global knowledge as a prior to the local training process. In this paper, we employ Bayesian learning to model PFL by assuming a prior in the scaled exponential family, and therefore propose pFedBreD, a framework to solve the problem we model using Bregman divergence regularization. Empirically, our experiments show that, under the prior assumption of the spherical Gaussian and the first order strategy of mean selection, our proposal significantly outcompetes other PFL algorithms on multiple public benchmarks.
Probabilistic Rank and Reward: A Scalable Model for Slate Recommendation
Aouali, Imad, Hammou, Achraf Ait Sidi, Ivanov, Sergey, Sakhi, Otmane, Rohde, David, Vasile, Flavian
We introduce Probabilistic Rank and Reward (PRR), a scalable probabilistic model for personalized slate recommendation. Our approach allows state-of-the-art estimation of the user interests in the ubiquitous scenario where the user interacts with at most one item from a slate of K items. We show that the probability of a slate being successful can be learned efficiently by combining the reward, whether the user successfully interacted with the slate, and the rank, the item that was selected within the slate. PRR outperforms competing approaches that use one signal or the other and is far more scalable to large action spaces. Moreover, PRR allows fast delivery of recommendations powered by maximum inner product search (MIPS), making it suitable in low latency domains such as computational advertising.
Validation Diagnostics for SBI algorithms based on Normalizing Flows
Linhart, Julia, Gramfort, Alexandre, Rodrigues, Pedro L. C.
Building on the recent trend of new deep generative models known as Normalizing Flows (NF), simulation-based inference (SBI) algorithms can now efficiently accommodate arbitrary complex and high-dimensional data distributions. The development of appropriate validation methods however has fallen behind. Indeed, most of the existing metrics either require access to the true posterior distribution, or fail to provide theoretical guarantees on the consistency of the inferred approximation beyond the one-dimensional setting. This work proposes easy to interpret validation diagnostics for multi-dimensional conditional (posterior) density estimators based on NF. It also offers theoretical guarantees based on results of local consistency. The proposed workflow can be used to check, analyse and guarantee consistent behavior of the estimator. The method is illustrated with a challenging example that involves tightly coupled parameters in the context of computational neuroscience. This work should help the design of better specified models or drive the development of novel SBI-algorithms, hence allowing to build up trust on their ability to address important questions in experimental science.
Revisiting Active Sets for Gaussian Process Decoders
Moreno-Muñoz, Pablo, Feldager, Cilie W, Hauberg, Søren
Decoders built on Gaussian processes (GPs) are enticing due to the marginalisation over the non-linear function space. Such models (also known as GP-LVMs) are often expensive and notoriously difficult to train in practice, but can be scaled using variational inference and inducing points. In this paper, we revisit active set approximations. We develop a new stochastic estimate of the log-marginal likelihood based on recently discovered links to cross-validation, and we propose a computationally efficient approximation thereof. We demonstrate that the resulting stochastic active sets (SAS) approximation significantly improves the robustness of GP decoder training, while reducing computational cost. The SAS-GP obtains more structure in the latent space, scales to many datapoints, and learns better representations than variational autoencoders, which is rarely the case for GP decoders.